Big Ten Preview - Sink or Swim

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

The Big Ten standings are continuing to take shape; however, many of the teams are either sinking or swimming on their way to season’s end. Let’s see who is staying afloat and who is in need of an S.O.S.
Penn State (walking on water) at Ohio State (speed boating)

Key Match-ups:

1. Running back Evan Royster vs. middle linebacker James Laurinaitis – Royster catalyzes the combustion of the Nittany Lions’ offense. He is averaging a stellar 7.7 yards per carry and 111 yards per game . This no doubt sets up the play-action pass for quarterback Daryll Clark or at least keeps the offense in favorable down-and-distance. Laurinaitis is pacing in at just under 10 stops per game, taking down everything in site. The Buckeyes defense needs to limit Royster’s effectiveness if they have a chance to slow down the “Spread HD”. No team has shown they can do so yet.
Advantage: Penn State

2. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor vs. safety Anthony Scirrotto – Penn State’s defense is too tough and disciplined to run straight at them with Beanie Wells. Pryor needs to have the game of life in his early career, escaping to the edges picking up yards on scrambles or on broken-play passes. For the Lions, Scirrotto especially needs to play a disciplined game either breaking down at the point of attack and limiting Pryor’s elusiveness on runs or maintaining center field coverage against Ohio State’s talented receivers. Scirrotto was concussed last week in the Michigan game, so it will be telling early on in the game if he still feeling any of the haze from last week’s injury. Penn State’s team defense has been stellar, and it seems implausible that Pryor will knock the defense off balance enough to move the ball consistently.
Advantage: Penn State

Penn State comes in with a long history of losing against the Buckeyes, but the Nittany Lions showed they can overcome their ghosts of football past by beating Michigan last time. The Buckeyes are certainly more of a challenge than Michigan, but are too inconsistent offensively drown out the Nittany Lions.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Ohio State 17

Michigan State (tugboat with an overheating engine) at Michigan (wooden raft a la “Cast Away”…after the final storm): I have a strange feeling about this game. I think the Wolverines, on their wooden planks and all, find a way to win this one. Despite Penn State pulling away last week, Michigan had a solid first half they can build upon, and I think the seniors will implore the team to save the season now that there are really backed in to a corner. To make matters worse for Michigan State (who are licking their wounds from an embarrassing loss last week to Ohio State), their offensive scheme falls right in to the teeth of Michigan’s defense (power running, see Wisconsin four weeks ago). Mark my words…unless the Spartans roll…

PREDICTION: Michigan 24, Michigan State 23

Minnesota (30-foot sailboat on a gusty afternoon on Lake Superior) at Purdue (rusty pontoon in the middle of the Bering Sea in “The Perfect Storm”): The Gophers and Boilermakers could not be moving in opposite directions any more than now – the Black and Old Gold have lost four straight and Minnesota has rattled of six wins in seven tries. Due to their time of possession edge (32:05 vs. 27:36 for Purdue) and FBS leading +12 turnover margin, look for Minnesota to challenge Purdue’s conference worst rushing defense (185 yards/game) conservatively rushing often with freshman DeLeon Eskridge and short, quick passing from Adam Weber to Erick Decker (59 catches, 782 yards, five touchdowns). The boo-birds may be out at Ross-Ade as quarterback Curtis Painter heaves up some questionable passes that get picked off in a scramble to make this a closer game.

PREDICTION: Minnesota 29, Purdue 15

Illinois (keelboat overrun by 11 Indians) at Wisconsin (steer clear of that starboard-side iceberg!): One thing is for sure, Illinois’ eleven on offense came to play this year, averaging a conference second-best average of 36 points/game. But the eleven on the other side of the ball have not panned out yet, surrendering an eighth best 27 points/game. The Illini may be safe as the Badgers have slid offensively. And there is a mathematical equation that defines how bad the offense has been lately: y = -22x +124, which is the plot of the Badgers first quarter total yards decline (96, 87, 59, 31) for the four games leading up to their “offensive explosion” against Iowa (62 first quarter yards). Illinois’ offense takes it to the Badgers’ defense, which may need another equation depicting the upward trend of points surrendered.

PREDICTION: Illinois 32, Wisconsin 16

Northwestern (20-foot sailboat on a gusty afternoon on Lake Michigan) at Indiana (inflatable life raft with several football-sized punctures and no Coast Guard in site)


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PREDICTION: Northwestern 37, Indiana ... --- ... (SOS)