Capital Bowl: NFL Draft Watch

Here are the following players to keep your eye for the 2010 NFL Draft in the CAPITAL ONE BOWL.

LSU Tigers:

WR Brandon LaFell – LaFell is a tall wide receiver who is a good overall athlete and runs crisp routes. The question is, can he be a number one wide receiver in the NFL? Right now he has a late 1st round grade.

WR Terrance Toliver (JR) – Toliver is a junior, but there has been talk about him declaring early for the 2010 NFL Draft. He's a 6'4" and 206-pound big play receiver who many think is a better pro prospect the his more highly-touted teammate LaFell, because he has more potential in terms of being a true number one receiver.

OT Ciron Black – Black came into the season rated as one of the top offensive tackle prospects, but has fell down the ranks because of his lack of consistency. There is some thinking that he might have to play offensive guard at the next level and he has a 3rd round grade as of now.

DE Rahim Alem – Alem is a good overall defensive end and shows ability to playing the run as well as rushing the passer. Right now has a 4th round grade.

LB Perry Riley – Riley is a solid overall linebacker and in the NFL should be a top notch special team’s player. He can play the run, but needs to show more consistency in pass coverage. Right now has a 5th round grade.

S Harry Coleman – Coleman has played linebacker this season, but will play safety in the NFL. He is a good tackler and at his best against the run. The Bayou Bengal also does a good job in zone coverage when matched up with tight ends and running backs. Right now has a 4th round grade.

S Chad Jones (JR) - Jones is an outstanding athlete who also plays baseball for LSU and does a good job as a return man. There is some talk that he will declare early for the 2010 draft and if does, Jones should be a 2nd round pick.

Penn State Nittany Lions:

QB Daryll Clark – Clark is a good athlete for a quarterback and has a strong arm, but needs to be able to show more consistency in his decision making ability. He has the potential to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, but will be a project type player. Right now has a 6th round grade.

RB Evan Royster (JR) – Royster has shown the ability to be a very good runner inside, as well as outside. He is also capable of catching the football out of the back field. Most people think he will leave early and could be a 2nd round pick if he does declare.

TE Andrew Quarless – Quarless is an impressive athlete and a well rounded tight end that has good size at 6'5" and 248 pounds. He is a solid receiver and sound blocker, with the potential to move up NFL team’s draft board. Right now has a 5th round grade.

TE Mickey Shuler – Schuler has similar size as teammate tight end Andrew Quarless but isn’t as good as an athlete or receiver and that is why he has a free-agent grade right now.

DT Jared Odrick – Odrick has come on this season to be a dominating defensive linemen and done a good job rushing the passer and playing the run. Right now he has a 1st round grade in the 2010 NFL Draft.

OLB Navorro Bowman (JR) – Bowman is a junior and many people expect him to declare early for the 2010 NFL Draft. He is a physical outside linebacker who can also cover running backs and tight ends in the passing games. If he does declare could be a 2nd round pick.

LB Josh Hull - Hull is the underrated linebacker in the group, but just a good overall football player and linebacker. Right now he has 5th round grade.

LB Sean Lee – Lee missed the whole season last year because of a knee injury and has missed a few games this season because of an injury. He has shown the ability to be a dominating linebacker in the past and we have seen some flashes this season. If all the tests come out positive on his knee could end up being as high as a 2nd round pick.

For more NFL, NFL Draft news, you can follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/jvanfulpen

Photo Courtesy of SEC Sports Media, Mark Selders/Penn State Athletic Communications

CFI Countdown: #14 Penn St. Nittany Lions

2008 Record: 11-2 (Big Ten 7-1)
Bowl Game: Lost Rose Bowl to USC 38-24
Location: University Park, Pennsylvania
Stadium: Beaver Stadium (107,282)
Head Coach: Joe Paterno
Overall: 381-129-3 (44th season)
@ Penn St. 381-129-3 (44th season)
Link to PSU Football Page

The Nittany Lions are coming off a season in which they won 11 games and a Big Ten title and although it didn’t end quite the way they wanted—a Rose Bowl loss to USC—Joe Paterno silenced any doubts his critics had. He proved—as if he had to—that he can still recruit and can still coach ’em up. With only nine starters back, this might be one of Paterno’s tougher coaching jobs considering the always-high expectations in Happy Valley.

When the Nittany Lions Have the Ball

Offensive Coordinator: Galen Hall (6th season)
Scheme: Spread HD
Starters Returning: Five
Key Losses: WR Deon Butler, Derrick Williams, WR Jordan Norwood, OT Gerald Cadogan, C A. Q. Shipley, OG Rich Ohmberger, K Kevin Kelly

Not many teams can rival what the Nittany Lions bring in the offensive backfield with senior signal caller Daryll Clark and junior tailback Evan Royster, a pair of likely All-Big Ten performers. Clark is an ideal quarterback for the spread offense as he is a capable thrower and runner. He is accurate, efficient, and possesses a strong arm, with excellent decision-making skills. He doesn’t run that much, instead picking his spots to tuck and run when the Nittany Lions need to move the chains or cross the goal line. Royster isn’t the biggest or the fastest, but he knows how to make opposing tacklers miss and uses his excellent vision to find holes. Backing him up is blazer Stephfon Green, who is still more potential than production. Look for Green to break off some big runs after Royster has worn the defense down. The offensive line and wide receiving corps is not as sound. Gone are three first-team All-Big Ten performers along the offensive line and three of their top-four all-time pass catchers. The center position is solid, with junior Stefen Wisniewski moving over from guard, but they must replace their left tackle and break new guards into the starting lineup. At receiver the feeling is they have talent, but it is unproven. Helping out the passing game could be a talented duo at tight end—Andrew Quarless has a lot of potential and Mickey Shuler is as solid as they come.

Top Pro Prospects: 1) C/OG Stefen Wisniewski (JR), 2) RB Evan Royster (JR), 3) TE Andrew Quarless (SR)

When the Other Team Has the Ball

Defensive Coordinator: Tom Bradley (10th season)
Scheme: 4-3
Starters Returning: Four
Key Losses: DE Aaron Maybin, DE Maurice Evans, DE Josh Gaines, LB Cameron Wake, CB Lydell Sargeant, CB Tony Davis, S Anthony Scirrotto, S Mark Rubin

They must replace three productive defensive ends and the entire back four—both the last line of defense as well as key components to the front line—no easy task for any defense. They are solid up the middle, with tackles Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu. Odrick in particular is a difference-maker—a 300-pounder with the ability to clog the middle and enough quickness to make plays. The ends are not as secure, where Aaron Maybin’s explosiveness will surely be missed. There is talent, but as is the case at receiver, it is mostly unproven. The entire secondary is brand new, which wasn’t helped by corner A. J. Wallace missing classes and looking at a suspension. The senior is the most experienced of the defensive backs and has some playmaking skills. There are high hopes for sophomore safety Drew Astorino. The strength of the defense should be the linebacking corps where they return starters Navorro Bowman and Josh Hull, as well as Sean Lee from his injury-induced red-shirt season. According to all accounts, Lee is healthy and should be back to his productive self. Both Lee and Bowman have the ability to be disruptive forces and first-team all conference performers. Even so, this unit has already suffered a major loss, as projected starter Michael Mauti is out for the season. He was slated to take over at one outside linebacker spot and allow Lee to slide over to the MIKE (instead of Hull).

Top Pro Prospects: 1) DT Jared Odrick (SR), 2) LB Navorro Bowman (JR), 3) LB Sean Lee (SR)

The Schedule

The out of conference schedule is not impressive, not in the least bit. PSU plays Eastern Illinois, Akron, Syracuse, and Temple—and they play them all at home! Last season Syracuse was 3-9, both Akron and Temple finished 5-7 in the MAC, the same record as Eastern Illinois, a FCS school. What, The Little Sisters of the Poor were busy? In conference the schedule breaks their way as well, not that missing Purdue is a good thing. (They also miss Wisconsin this season.) Their two toughest games, Iowa and Ohio St., should be white-outs in Happy Valley. They do play a quartet of potentially dangerous road contests at Michigan St., Illinois, Northwestern, and Michigan.

Pivotal Point

Player development. Before last season, Aaron Maybin and Navorro Bowman weren’t exactly household names, yet they emerged as the key pieces to a defense that finished eighth in scoring, total, and rushing defense. Bowman led the team in tackles and tackles for a loss against the run, while Maybin paced the conference in sacks. They will need similar progress on their offensive line, at defensive end, wide receiver, and in the secondary. If tackle DeOn’tae Pannell, wide out Chaz Powell, and defensive end Jack Crawford become recognizable names, a second straight Big Ten title might in the stars.

CFI Final Analysis

The fact that they open the season with Akron, Syracuse, and Temple at home before hosting the Iowa Hawkeyes to open up the Big Ten season gives Paterno and his staff three games to work in the 13 new starters. This team can really go either way in the Big Ten and it’s hard to rank them any higher until we know more about their blockers, who their pass rushers will be, and how they replace four starters in the secondary, not to mention three of the best receivers in school history. They won’t take a major step back, but don’t expect another Big Ten crown either.


College Football Insiders Top 25 Countdown:
The Next 25 (26-50) Plus 18 Bowl Teams
#25 West Virginia Mounainteers
#24 Tennessee Volunteers
#23 Clemson Tigers
#22 Pittsburgh Panthers
#21 Michigan St. Spartans
#20 Utah Utes
#19 Oregon Ducks
#18 Florida St. Seminoles
#17 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
#16 Boise St. Broncos
#15 North Carolina Tar Heels

Big Ten - Best 1-2 Punch: Offense

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

5. Adam Weber to Eric Decker (Minnesota): Decker was on top of the conference in receptions (76) and second in touchdowns (6) and yards (925). The two combined to catalyze their offense’s early season success, which suffered once Decker went down with an ankle injury. In the last two years, this tandem has connected for 143 receptions 1,834 yards and 15 touchdowns and will have one more year together.

4. Greg Orton and Desmond Tardy [and Keith Smith] (Purdue): Orton (69 receptions, 720 yards, five touchdowns) and Tardy (67 receptions, 876 yards, five touchdowns) combined for 136 catches for 1,596 yards and 10 touchdowns. Throw in Keith Smith as a third option (49 receptions, 486 yards, two touchdowns) and you have a trio that was as good or arguably better statistically as Penn State’s Big Three.

3. Evan Royster and Derrick Williams (Penn State): These teammates finished in the top ten in all-purpose yards combining for 2,689 yards, 19 total touchdowns, and big contributions to the Spread HD. Land, air or sea, Royster and Williams helped catalyze the conference’s best scoring and total offenses.

2. Juice Williams and Daniel Dufrene (Illinois): Williams had a splendid year in total yards accumulated with 3,892 (3,173 passing). But he (719 yards, five touchdowns) and Dufrene (663 yards) hold the 8th and 9th spots as Big Ten rushing leaders. Altogether you have 4,555 yards between the two.

1. P.J. Hill and John Clay (Wisconsin): The quintessential 1-2 punch in the backfield. Hill finished sixth in yards (1,021) and fourth in touchdowns (12) while Clay, as a freshman, finished seventh in yards (845) and eighth in touchdowns (9). That’s 1,866 yards and 21 touchdowns combined. And both are likely to be back next year.

Tomorrow: Best 1-2 Punch: Defense

Photo Credit: University of Minnesota Athletic Communications

Game of the Week: Penn St. @ Ohio St.

By RALPH MANCINI -
CFI SENIOR WRITER

IN A MUCH-ANTIICIPATED showdown that could determine who ultimately wins the Big Ten conference title, the Nittany Lions of Penn State (8-0, 4-0) face off against the Buckeyes of Ohio State (7-1, 4-0) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus. Coach Joe Paterno and his high-flying offense are out to prove that they’re the elite team of their conference, and what better way to accomplish that feat than by ousting the team that’s won two straight undisputed titles? In the year preceding their two-year run as conference champs, the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions actually shared the rights to the coveted honor in 2005. While Penn State may be the more prolific team on paper, the blue and white have yet to beat Ohio State in their seven trips to Columbus since joining the Big Ten in 1993. The Buckeyes lead the series 12-11 going in to their 24th matchup on Saturday.

When the Cats Have the Ball

RUNNING BACK EVAN Royster is the unsung hero of this offense, and has increasingly grown into being the focal point of Penn State’s attack despite the presence of a plethora of playmakers at wide receiver. The sophomore tailback is a disciplined runner who waits for his blockers to set up the play and always keeps his legs churning. The 212-lb. workhorse shows exceptional burst once he gets past the first level of defenders and his second gear has enabled him to record 10 carries of over 20 yards. Penn State’s ability to beat teams in a variety of ways is due in large part to quarterback Darryl Clark. As the ringleader of the team’s new “Spread HD” offense, the Youngstown, Ohio native not only utilizes his athleticism to run the option, but is also quite capable of reading defenses from the pocket. Clark’s weekly improvement as a passer has manifested itself in his ability to spread the ball to a multitude of receiving weapons. Seniors Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood and Deon Butler form a lethal trio of downfield threats. Williams is the most explosive of the three, as evidenced by his quickness off the line and the way he instantly reaches top speed, allowing him to make plays as a runner, receiver and return man. Norwood is Clark’s go-to guy on shorter routes and has tremendous leaping ability, but must avoid dropping catchable passes. Butler is a quick and crafty route runner with soft hands. Center A.Q. Shipley is a force in the running game along with left tackle Gerald Cadogan, who does an excellent job of pulling on counter plays. Kicker Kevin Kelly is a Lou Groza Award candidate, who is three field goals away from becoming the Big Ten’s all-time leader.

WHILE OHIO STATE’S defense faces a tall task in stopping the Nittany Lion running attack, JoePa’s big uglies aren’t as formidable in pass protection. To that end, the scarlet and gray must utilize linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman to get to the quarterback due to a lack of explosive edge rushers, such as defensive end Lawrence Wilson, who suffered a season-ending injury. Laurinaitis has great instincts, which he puts to good use with his sideline-to-sideline speed. Fellow senior Freeman is a 6’2, 236-lb. strongside linebacker, who’s an athletic open-field tackler and coverage man. Coming off a Michigan State victory in which star runner Javon Ringer was held to 67 rushing yards, defensive tackles Cameron Heyward, Doug Worthington and Nader Abdallah hope to duplicate their success by generating interior pressure to keep Royster in check. Earlier in the season Ironhead’s boy was moved inside to shore up the team’s run defense. Cornerback Malcolm Jenkins headlines a talented secondary. The fourth-year starter usually lines up all over the field to match-up with the opponent’s best receiver. His instincts, speed and quickness make him a natural in man-to-man coverage. Against Penn State’s big three, Jenkins will occasionally be shifted to a center-field position on passing downs with Donald Washington entering the game. The 6’0” Washington is an intelligent player with big-play potential in both man-to-man and zone packages. The 188-lb. Chimdi Chekwa isn’t as physically imposing as Jenkins, but he makes up for that with his sound coverage technique. Chewka suffered an injured shoulder versus the Spartans last week, but is said to be healthy enough to suit up this Saturday. At safety, Kurt Coleman is a heat-seeking torpedo, but is prone to the missed tackle when looking to make the big hit. His partner, Anderson Russell, is a much-more disciplined player with cornerback skills. The energetic safety is typically among the team leaders in tackles, and also has a penchant for forcing the key fumble and notching the important sack.

When the Buckeyes Have the Ball

DYNAMIC FRESHMAN QUARTERBACK Terrelle Pryor adds a new dimension to a run-oriented attack with his ability to run bootlegs out of the pocket or faking oncoming defensive ends to buy himself enough time for his receivers to get open. What’s most impressive in Pryor’s development is his improvement in recognizing defensive alignments. The electric 19 year-old was masterful last week in directing four scoring drives in the game’s first 25 minutes. The Buckeyes hope to get another strong performance out of their offensive line this week that would allow the Buckeyes to establish long, slow drives behind their meal ticket Chris “Beanie” Wells. The immensely gifted back got off to a slow start this season with a well-chronicled toe injury, but has bounced back in grand fashion and shown no visible signs of wearing down. In fact, Wells carried the ball a season-high 31 times last week for 140 yards and two scores. The 6’1” 237-lb. bruiser is a sustaining back, who has the added zip to break free on long runs. The aforementioned offensive line is led by outspoken senior left tackle Alex Boone, who specializes in blowing defenders off the ball on running plays. Jim Tressel’s group hopes to expose Penn State’s back seven in pass coverage by allowing Pryor to buy extra time with his feet and hook up with receivers Brian Robiskie, Brian Hartline and Ray Small. While none of the three is a speed merchant, they certainly have enough in their bag of tricks. Following the return of Wells, the Buckeyes’ passing game has become an afterthought for the most part—leading receiver Robiskie has only two receptions in each of his last three games. Look for the 6’3” senior to be a factor in short-yardage and red zone situations if the home team is forced to pass more than they normally would. Hartline, who leads the team in receiving yards, is more of a deep threat who typically gets open on sideline throws or crossing routes over the middle. Rory Nicol and Jake Ballard are the tight ends who may be used on play action and goal line scenarios.

PENN STATE’S SUCCESS in pass defense can be attributed to their ability to consistently generate a pass rush. No one defender has been more of a difference maker in that department than defensive end Aaron Maybin. Fourth in the nation with 10 sacks, the 6’4, 236-lb. hellraiser has been unstoppable. His tremendous burst and hand skills make him one tough nut to crack. Fellow end Josh Gaines shows good quickness, which helps him gain penetration and stop running backs dead in their tracks, often behind the line of scrimmage. PSU’s defensive line has been fortified by the return of their standout lineman Maurice Evans (previously suspended). The Brooklyn boy is a complete player that can get to the quarterback with his combination of moves, in addition to his pure speed. Against the run, Evans is capable of holding his edge and powerful enough to push tackles back when necessary. Sophomore linebacker Navarro Bowman has led the team in tackles six times this season, and is among the leaders in the Big Ten. Outside linebacker Tyrell Sales has the tools to be tackling machine himself, provided he gets the support of his two defensive tackles Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu. Bani Gbadyu and Michael Mauti add speed to the linebacker corps. Safety Anthony Scirrotto is a limited, yet an instinctive competitor who’ll make his share of big plays in pass coverage. Mark Rubin covers the other half of the field, while cornerbacks Tony Davis and A.J. Wallace bring good size to the table.

Final analysis
PENN STATE’S BALANCED attack will be too much for the Buckeyes. Expect Penn State to jump out to an early lead and watch Evan Royster punish Ohio State’s defense on the ground behind the blocking of fullback Dan Lawlor and tight end Mickey Shuler, Jr., who’ll both be called upon to fend off linebackers Laurinaitis and Freeman. On the other side of the ball, Ohio State will put up decent yardage, but be limited to settling for field goals against a Nittany Lion defense giving up a paltry 11.8 points per game.

Prediction: Penn State 35 Ohio State 19

Photo Credit: Collegiate Images

Between the Hashes: Royster’s Role Crystal Clear

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER


PENN STATE HEAD Coach Joe Paterno has continued to evolve his team’s look offensively, now dubbed the “Spread HD” by the players. How fitting the name has become – nationally, their offense is seventh in scoring (45 PPG), 11th in total yards (482 YPG, and 10th in rushing (235 YPG). What is surprising is how quietly running back Evan Royster is putting together a statistical resume worthy of some serious post-season accolades. Maybe a closer breakdown of the Spread HD can bring clarity to the importance of Royster as the offensive catalyst.

In order for a television to be considered “HD” it needs to be dramatically superior (against standard analog televisions) in the following specifications: aspect ratio, frame rate and resolution. How does the sophomore back fare in these categories?

Aspect Ratio (TV: larger ratio in HD) – consider the football version, defined as yards per attempt ratio. It’s eight games into the season and Royster has accrued 893 rushing yards on a paltry 116 carries, breaking down to 14.5 rushes and 111 yards per game and a whopping 7.7 yards per carry. Projected that out to the full 12 game season, and he’d finish with 1,350 yards on only 175 rushes. Compare that to Michigan State’s Heisman candidate Javon Ringer, who has already racked up 1,249 yards but has done so on 263 rushes (33/game) for 4.5 yards per attempt. Take a look back to Reggie Bush’s 2005 Heisman campaign at USC and you’ll see he averaged 8.7 yards per carry (200 rushes, 1,740 yards). Ramp up Royster’s rushes to 200 this year and he would finish with just under 1,550 yards.

Frame rate (TV: frequency it creates a complete picture on the screen every second) – a complete picture every cycle (or second) in football can loosely translate to attempts per touchdown (APT). Again, through eight games Royster has scored 10 touchdowns on 127 total touches, giving him a “frame rate” of 12.7 APT. His teammate and quarterback Daryll Clark, a Heisman candidate in his own right, checks in with a 12.0 APT on 227 attempts (180 pass, 47 rush) for 19 total touchdowns (11 passing, eight rushing). However, five of Clark’s rushing scores have come from goal line sneaks from two yards or closer. Factor them out of the quarterback’s APT (now down to 16) and add them to the running back, Royster’s APT now checks in at an incredible 8.5 touches per touchdown. Further, Royster’s 12.7 APT blows away the Big Ten’s rushing leaders: Purdue’s Kory Sheets (15.5 APT, 10 touchdowns), Iowa’s Shonn Greene (18.3, 10 touchdowns) and Ringer (19.9, 14 touchdowns) and beats out ’05 Heisman Reggie Bush again (13.2, 18 touchdowns).

Resolution (TV: more pixilation impacts clarity) – translating to football, resolution seems to represent the impact Royster carries for his offense. Consider the following games: opening the season, Royster scored PSU’s first two touchdowns against both Coastal Carolina (66-10) and Oregon State (45-14). Against No. 22 Illinois and at Purdue, Royster rushed for a combined 280 yards and a touchdown. And during their last two conference games, the running back scored the Lions’ first touchdown of both games (along with a combined 234 yards) en route to pull away blowouts against Wisconsin (48-7) and Michigan (46-17).

There’s no doubt that Penn State’s great start has been a team effort on both sides of the ball as they strive towards another National Champion-ship. But even Daryll Clark acknowledges that the offense all starts with his running back. When asked whether Royster’s rushing during the Wisconsin game was the catalyst to set up their offensive scheme, he remarked, “Absolutely. He ran the ball real consistently… there were a couple of plays after we hand off the ball and carry through the fake…if he keeps his feet he might be gone…with him running the way he does, it opens things up down field for us.”

So it seems that Royster’s teammates recognize his importance to the success of the offense. It won’t be surprising if we continue to watch the running back pile up big numbers right through a BCS bowl game. That’s a picture coming in nice and clear.

Big Ten Preview - Sink or Swim

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

The Big Ten standings are continuing to take shape; however, many of the teams are either sinking or swimming on their way to season’s end. Let’s see who is staying afloat and who is in need of an S.O.S.
Penn State (walking on water) at Ohio State (speed boating)

Key Match-ups:

1. Running back Evan Royster vs. middle linebacker James Laurinaitis – Royster catalyzes the combustion of the Nittany Lions’ offense. He is averaging a stellar 7.7 yards per carry and 111 yards per game . This no doubt sets up the play-action pass for quarterback Daryll Clark or at least keeps the offense in favorable down-and-distance. Laurinaitis is pacing in at just under 10 stops per game, taking down everything in site. The Buckeyes defense needs to limit Royster’s effectiveness if they have a chance to slow down the “Spread HD”. No team has shown they can do so yet.
Advantage: Penn State

2. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor vs. safety Anthony Scirrotto – Penn State’s defense is too tough and disciplined to run straight at them with Beanie Wells. Pryor needs to have the game of life in his early career, escaping to the edges picking up yards on scrambles or on broken-play passes. For the Lions, Scirrotto especially needs to play a disciplined game either breaking down at the point of attack and limiting Pryor’s elusiveness on runs or maintaining center field coverage against Ohio State’s talented receivers. Scirrotto was concussed last week in the Michigan game, so it will be telling early on in the game if he still feeling any of the haze from last week’s injury. Penn State’s team defense has been stellar, and it seems implausible that Pryor will knock the defense off balance enough to move the ball consistently.
Advantage: Penn State

Penn State comes in with a long history of losing against the Buckeyes, but the Nittany Lions showed they can overcome their ghosts of football past by beating Michigan last time. The Buckeyes are certainly more of a challenge than Michigan, but are too inconsistent offensively drown out the Nittany Lions.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Ohio State 17

Michigan State (tugboat with an overheating engine) at Michigan (wooden raft a la “Cast Away”…after the final storm): I have a strange feeling about this game. I think the Wolverines, on their wooden planks and all, find a way to win this one. Despite Penn State pulling away last week, Michigan had a solid first half they can build upon, and I think the seniors will implore the team to save the season now that there are really backed in to a corner. To make matters worse for Michigan State (who are licking their wounds from an embarrassing loss last week to Ohio State), their offensive scheme falls right in to the teeth of Michigan’s defense (power running, see Wisconsin four weeks ago). Mark my words…unless the Spartans roll…

PREDICTION: Michigan 24, Michigan State 23

Minnesota (30-foot sailboat on a gusty afternoon on Lake Superior) at Purdue (rusty pontoon in the middle of the Bering Sea in “The Perfect Storm”): The Gophers and Boilermakers could not be moving in opposite directions any more than now – the Black and Old Gold have lost four straight and Minnesota has rattled of six wins in seven tries. Due to their time of possession edge (32:05 vs. 27:36 for Purdue) and FBS leading +12 turnover margin, look for Minnesota to challenge Purdue’s conference worst rushing defense (185 yards/game) conservatively rushing often with freshman DeLeon Eskridge and short, quick passing from Adam Weber to Erick Decker (59 catches, 782 yards, five touchdowns). The boo-birds may be out at Ross-Ade as quarterback Curtis Painter heaves up some questionable passes that get picked off in a scramble to make this a closer game.

PREDICTION: Minnesota 29, Purdue 15

Illinois (keelboat overrun by 11 Indians) at Wisconsin (steer clear of that starboard-side iceberg!): One thing is for sure, Illinois’ eleven on offense came to play this year, averaging a conference second-best average of 36 points/game. But the eleven on the other side of the ball have not panned out yet, surrendering an eighth best 27 points/game. The Illini may be safe as the Badgers have slid offensively. And there is a mathematical equation that defines how bad the offense has been lately: y = -22x +124, which is the plot of the Badgers first quarter total yards decline (96, 87, 59, 31) for the four games leading up to their “offensive explosion” against Iowa (62 first quarter yards). Illinois’ offense takes it to the Badgers’ defense, which may need another equation depicting the upward trend of points surrendered.

PREDICTION: Illinois 32, Wisconsin 16

Northwestern (20-foot sailboat on a gusty afternoon on Lake Michigan) at Indiana (inflatable life raft with several football-sized punctures and no Coast Guard in site)


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PREDICTION: Northwestern 37, Indiana ... --- ... (SOS)