2009 Big Ten Season Preview & Predictions

College Football Insider John Sears provides his outlook on the Big Ten with his fearless forecasts for the 2009 season.

Due to the weather patterns in the Windy City, we joke (or not) that in Chicago there are two seasons – winter and construction. By June, we’re clinging to the low ‘70s, hoping the afternoon “London Fog” burns off before it blocks the sun, sort of like a volcanic or meteor-strike ashen blanket that throws the globe in to a 10,000 year ice age. On the bright side, we have been inundated with previews of the 2009 season as early as the time Chicago has decided to begin its summer thaw. TV talking heads, magazines, blogs, podcasts, and a plethora of other online multimedia services have weighed in, but I know you have all been holding out through the dog days of summer to get my perspective on the season. All five of you (including my parents, my in-laws and my wife). So I present to you my taste of the 2009 Big Ten outlook with a sense of humility. This word may also be the best descriptor of how all teams planning on contending this year in the Big Ten should approach their season. Why? No team escapes roster evaluation without a noticeable fatal flaw in one (or more) of their units, which may inevitably stunt their chance at contending for the conference title. Those teams that play to their strengths or mask their weaknesses best may escape the Big Ten ice age and take a step towards the warming effects of national and BCS respect.

Below is a digest version of what’s to come this year in our beloved Midwestern conference. But stayed tuned for further analysis of all eleven teams such as the predicted outcome grid for every Big Ten team, the most influential units on the season’s outcome, key weeks and key early matchups and swing games that will set up how the conference will shake out.

Conference Champ: Penn State. Despite most slotting The perennial power Ohio State atop the league, Penn State possesses enough talent, experience, and most of all, leadership to secure the conference crown over the Buckeyes. Will they be packing for Pasadena? Yes. Will they be packing for a January 7th game (the National Title game) or the January 1st Rose Bowl? I am not handing everything over to Penn State before a game played, and I feel Illinois will give them a run finishing a close second. In fact, I see the Nittany Lions losing their only game to the Illini on October 3rd. One loss in the SEC or Big12 can give you some bargaining chips for a case of National Championship representation, but Penn State will lose the BCS beauty contest, with a number 1 or 2 ranking just out of their fingertips. Why? Penn State has serious gaps to fill in passing and defending the pass. Daryll Clark will likely have a stellar season statistically leading Penn State with his arms or legs. But replacing the magnificent, record-setting receiving trio of Derrick Williams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood will be close to impossible. If the Nittany Lions can ride the legs of Evan Royster, Stephon Green and Clark, perhaps there will be less pressure to gain chunks of yards through the air. On the other side of the ball, the front seven looks solid, despite key losses on the edges of Aaron Maybin, Maurice Evans and Josh Gaines. A healthy Sean Lee coupled with last year’s standout at Linebaacker U, Navorro Bowman, can be a deadly linebacker combination. However, zero starters return in the secondary. In 2006, their defense survived under similar circumstances; thus it goes without saying (than why am I saying it?) that some true freshman or newcomers need to step up big to round out the D. If so, watch out for Penn State to make a run for national considerations.

Contenders: Illinois, Ohio State. For Illinois, it’s somewhat simple – ride your offensive star power (WR Arrelious Benn, WR Jeff Cumberland, WR Jarred FAyson, RB Daniel Dufrene, RB Jason Ford, etc.); and you see that quarterback Juice Williams must be salivating for opening day to come as soon as possible. Can they average 40/game? Perhaps. Maybe they will need to until their defense shows the chemistry it needs to perform week in and week out. In terms of scheduling, the Illini season will most likely be dictated early with a stretch starting 9/26 at Ohio State (Illinois conveniently has a bye the week preceding this doozey), home against Penn State and home against Michigan State. If they take two of three here, which is certainly plausible, it may be clear sailing the rest of the way – their toughest hurdles then being at Minnesota November 7th and Northwestern the following week. Expect a double-digit win season, riding solely on where Williams takes them. For Ohio State, I’m a little more skeptical. Funny how skeptical for the Buckeyes still puts them in the top three of the conference and possibly another 10+ win season. But losing running back Beanie Wells and top receiving targets Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie on offense while losing the captain of the defense, linebacker James Laurinaitis, lockdown corner Malcolm Jenkins and linebacker Marcus Freeman are just one too many holes to fill, even for the Buckeyes. I know I know, Ohio State reloads every year, but reloading with a quarterback who is still mastering the PASS at the collegiate level (yes, he runs like a dear) may be a cause for some hiccups. An early season rematch with USC looms over the Columbus faithful and a victory here could set the stage for conference play. Their schedule is not life-threatening overall, but still need to man up against Illinois 9/26, Wisconsin 10/10 and Iowa 11/14 albeit at home, and the only tough road tester just happens to be in Happy Valley 11/7.

Sleeper: Iowa -- Make no mistake, year-in and year-out, the Big Ten crown is up for grabs usually with strong defensive teams (notwithstanding Illinois’ chances this year). Iowa has the potential to be real stingy. If they can sew up the interior of the line, a return of the entire linebacking squad (Pat Angerer included) sitting underneath CB Amari Spievey (tied 2nd in the conference in INTs with four) and conference-leader in INTs SS Tyler Sash could be tough for any offense to move the ball. If youngster running back Jewel Hampton can give half the effort (~900 yards, 10 touchdowns) put forth by Shonn Greene last year, Iowa will be the prickly thorns in the favorites’ sides.

Victims of scheduling: Minnesota – the word on the street is a new-look, pro style offense with a twist (QB MarQueis Gray) and defense may improve, but not enough to accommodate a brutal schedule [Cal (9/19), @Northwestern (9/26), a four-game stretch of @ Penn State (10/17), @ Ohio State (10/24), Michigan State (10/31), Illinois (11/7), and finish @ Iowa (11/21)]. Iowa could make some serious noise if not for conference road games: @ Penn State (9/26), @ Wisconsin (10/17), @ Michigan State (10/24) and @ Ohio State (11/14).

Offensive Player of the Year: Juice Williams, QB, Illinois. Did you know that Williams needs just 4,238 total yards this year to break the all-time Big Ten career yardage record held by Drew Brees? Williams has not been known for being tremendously accurate (2008 career high of 57.5% completion), but still finds ways to get the ball down field for scores. With 3,173 yards through the air last year, Williams almost doubled his passing output from his sophomore campaign (1,743 yards). What else? How about the fact that the quarterback also lead his team in rushing last year with 923 yards and five touchdowns. With a stable of competent running backs in the backfield with Williams, I suspect his rushing totals will diminish. I also expect, however, that Williams will continue to improve his touchdown/interception ratio (22/16 2008, 12/13 2007, 9/9 2006) with an elite receiving crop now augmented by Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. This may be a record, decorated year for the senior gunslinger in his final campaign.
Honorable Mention: Erick Decker, WR, Minnesota

Defensive Player of the Year: Greg Jones, linebacker, Michigan State. Last year, Jones anchored the linebacking corps with a team-leading 127 tackles and 12 tackles-for-loss. The defense looks primed to be as strong as or stronger than last year, particularly against the run. The Spartans’ schedule is loaded with run-first offenses (Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State), so don’t expect a drop-off in the number of ball carriers Jones mops up. Further, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, and Purdue (on the schedule) will be walking out quarterbacks of little or no experience, so Jones may find his way in to the backfield more often.
Honorable Mention: Pat Angerer, linebacker, Iowa.

Breakout Seasons: John Clay (RB, Wisconsin), Terrelle Pryor (QB, Ohio State)
Who needs to grow up fast: Tate Forcier (QB, Michigan), Jewel Hampton (RB, Iowa), Edwin Baker (RB, Michigan State)
Unexpected game-changers: Marquis Gray (QB, Minnesota), Garrett Graham (TE, Wisconsin), Jarred Fayson (WR, Illinois)
Best Pro Prospects: Arrelious Benn (WR, Illinois), Brandon Graham (DE, Michigan), Corey Wootton (DE, Northwestern)

Big Ten - Best 1-2 Punch: Defense

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

5. Trey Simmons and Marcus Sherels (Minnesota): They combined as the top two defenders against the pass, tallying a conference-best 24 pass break-ups and 6 interceptions. And they’ll be back next year.

4. Pat Angerer and Amari Spievey (Iowa): Nine interceptions with one returned for a touchdown between the two. OK, not bad. But, they also combined for 166 tackles (101 from Angerer).
3. Aaron Maybin and Navarro Bowman (Penn State): The epitome of playmakers for the Penn State defense. Maybin took first place in sacks with 12, third in tackles-for-loss (19) and tied for third in the Big Ten with three forced fumbles. Navarro Bowman complemented him from the linebacker position by adding 98 tackles (seventh best in the Big Ten) with 11.5 of them tackles-for-loss.

2. James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman (Ohio State): True ball-hawks. The two linebackers quite simply terrorized defenses (OK, after the USC game), accumulating 7.5 sacks and 197 tackles.


1. Brit Miller and Martez Wilson (Illinois): Tackling machines Miller and Wilson seemed to allow the orange fan base to forget about 2007 graduate and star middle linebacker, J Leman. Miller took home top honors in tackles with 132, while sophomore WILL tacked on another 73—that’s a whopping 205 combined. Oh, and they also sacked the opposition nine times between the two.

Tomorrow: Best Kicks

Photo Credit: College Press Box (Penn St.)

Big Ten: Presidential Slogans Capture Essence of Match-ups

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

In light of this week’s Presidential election, I thought it would be interesting to see what campaign slogans were utilized by the candidates dating back to William Henry Harrison’s “Tippecanoe and Tyler too” way back in 1840 to see if they described any of the Big Ten action this week. Go to http://www.presidentsusa.net/campaignslogans.html to see the exhaustive list. On to the games:

Penn State at Iowa (“The stakes are too high to stay at home”, Lyndon B. Johnson 1964): If you haven’t been paying close attention out there, Penn State could find itself in quite a pickle. And no, it’s not just because of quarterback Daryll Clark’s concussion. There is a significant chance that Penn State’s history will repeat itself and an undefeated Lions’ squad finds itself on the outside looking in on a national championship (if Texas Tech and Alabama win out). One of the biggest “problems” for the Nittany Lions this year has been their strength of schedule, or lack thereof. They rank 67th on the FBS list for how many tough foes have been slated in 2008; rest assured that Penn State will not be sending out thank you cards to the likes of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois who have underachieved this year, thus weakening the schedule further. So it stands that Penn State should embrace their trip to Iowa City because the stakes are indeed too high to be playing at home.

But maybe before we worry too much about perfect seasons, let’s recall that the state of Iowa has not been friendly towards the Nittany Lions’ campaigns the last five visits (all Iowa wins). Coming off a bye last week will only slow Penn State down and Iowa’s tough defense will clamp down on their opponents for most of the game. Iowa may come out swinging and open up a seven or 14 point lead, but the Lions will wake up in the second half and pull things together.

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Iowa 7 7 0 0
PSU 0 7 7 14

PREDICTION: Penn State 28, Iowa 14

Ohio State at Northwestern (“Don’t swap horses in the middle of the stream”, Abraham Lincoln 1864): How fitting for both teams that swapping horses, or quarterbacks, could make or break their respective seasons. On one hand, Ohio State benched sixth-year senior Todd Boeckman for freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor and their only stumble since then was a tough loss against Penn State. On the other hand, a battered Northwestern team traveled to Minnesota on homecoming day after a weekend and saw back-up quarterback Mike Kafka put up conference player of the week numbers in the Cats’ 24-17 upset of the Gophers. But the word coming out of the Wildcats’ camp is if starter C. J. Bacher is healthy enough to have a go this week, he is Coach Pat Fitzgerald’s guy. Quarterback controversy is inappropriate terminology for this situation, but there will be plenty of second-guessing if Bacher returns and lays an egg against the stingy Buckeye defense.

Defense wins championships, and in this case, will dictate who wins this game. Ohio State (104 yards/game) and Northwestern (109 yards/game) are identical against the rush but the Buckeyes hold a formidable edge against the Wildcats in passing defense (163 yards/game vs. 232 yards/game). However, the Wildcats are second best in sacks with 26, compared to Ohio State’s 15.

Whoever controls the opponent’s quarterback controls the game. I just think too many question marks exist at that position for the Wildcats and the Buckeyes win a grinder.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 19, Northwestern 15

Purdue at Michigan State (“Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow”, Bill Clinton 1992): Tomorrow may mean different things to these teams, but as it stands, Michigan State’s “tomorrow” certainly pertains to this week (and the rest of this season). They have an outside chance of taking home the conference title and stumbling against Purdue would all but eliminate them from realizing this opportunity (which, by the way, hasn’t happened since the Bush I administration in 1990). For Purdue, tomorrow will almost certainly pertain to the post-Tiller era, although they hang by a thread at the hopes of bowl eligibility. If they win out (at Iowa, Indiana) they’ll earn a bowl bid.
To do that, they must contend with Spartans’ running back Javon Ringer, who was contained in yards (21 carries for 54 yards, two touchdowns) by Wisconsin last week. However, unlike the Badgers, Purdue checks in with the Big Ten’s worst rush defense (176 yards/game). Whichever team rushes the ball better (Ringer vs. Purdue’s quarterback Justin Siller and running back Kory Sheets) wins this one.

At the end of the day, Ringer will prevail and Siller will have been hoping he was playing that other team from Michigan again.

PREDICTION: Michigan State 24, Purdue 13

Michigan at Minnesota (“Change we can believe in”, Barrack Obama 2008): How this statement can embody bitter irony for Michigan while ringing true for Minnesota is uncanny. Michigan is bad this year, no question, which spawns second-guessing of bringing Rich Rodriguez, the non-“Michigan Man” into town with his brand new offense and staff. It seems that outside of Schembechler Hall, very few see this as a regime “change they can believe in”. If anything, questioning how the Coach and staff have performed after only 10 months in office seems awfully premature. Familiarity (with winning) breeds complacency, and complacency breeds contempt. For the Gophers, change has certainly been a good thing. Are we all forgetting that this time last year, Minnesota was 1-9 on their way to a 1-11 record? In fact, you’ll need to count up all of the wins from the previous two seasons to accumulate the same number of wins that Minnesota has notched already this year (seven).

So it goes Saturday--just like every other rivalry game and streak Michigan has hung onto for so long, the little brown jug will find its resting place back with the original captors of ye old water bottle. Minnesota will regroup from their heartbreaker last week as Michigan’s pulse on this season is barely detectable.

PREDICTION: Minnesota 30.9 (Michigan’s scoring defense average, Michigan 17.9 (Minnesota’s scoring defense average) – Listed as such because I reasoned 30-18 before checking their scoring defenses…

Wisconsin at Indiana (“54-40 or fight”, James K. Polk 1844): Indiana’s defense gave up a whopping 485 yards and four touchdowns to Central Michigan’s backup quarterback Brian Brunner last week in a 37-34 loss. The Hoosiers have averaged 40 points against in their six losses. So, in order to get back in the win column, it seems they must outscore Wisconsin “54-40” or else Indiana will be “fighting” to stay out of the conference cellar.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 30, Indiana 24

Western Michigan at Illinois (“Who is James K. Polk?” Henry Clay 1844): Or better yet, who is Western Michigan? They happen to be a 7-2 MAC team under the leadership of quarterback Tim Hiller, who is posting an excellent season (69% completion, 2,856 yards, 28 touchdowns, five interceptions). His favorite target may be Jamarko Simmons (74 catches for 830 yards and six touchdowns), but two other receivers may breach the 50-reception mark as well after this game (Schneider Julien [49] and Juan Nunez [48]). Their toughest opponent this year seems to have been Nebraska (loss: 47-24) in their season opener, but still managed to air out 342 yards passing.

For Illinois, will this be a contrast against the defensive struggle against Iowa? Yes, but Illinois takes down the Broncos in a shoot out.

PREDICTION: Illinois 48, Western Michigan 32

Football Fan's Four-Pack - Week Ten

By JOHN GARRETT

Northwestern at Minnesota (November 1, 12:00, ESPN2): Two things were lost last week for the Wildcats: a 21-19 decision at Indiana and their top offensive player—senior running back Tyrell Sutton—who is out for the season. The No. 20 Golden Gophers come into homecoming riding a three-game winning streak. The Minnesota defense has been instrumental in the past three victories, allowing just six points and 109 passing yards in last Saturday’s win over Purdue. Both teams have bounced back from disappointing 2007 seasons due largely to their defensive improvements. Through eight games, the Gopher defense has allowed 137 points, while the Wildcats have allowed 146.

Super Senior: William VanDeSteeg, DE, UM

Star of Tomorrow: Vince Browne, DE, NU

Nebraska at Oklahoma (November 1, 8:00, ESPN): The No. 4 Sooners and Cornhuskers will meet for the 84th time in the history of the series Saturday at Owen Field. One thing that Nebraska will do to try to match the speed of the Sooners is line up redshirt freshman Marcus Mendoza at wide receiver. Coach Bo Pelini hopes the speedster from Texas is able to create some mismatches against the OU defense. On the injury front, senior running back Marlon Lucky should be able to go on Saturday after suffering a minor ankle injury in the Huskers’ victory over Baylor last weekend.

Super Senior: Joe Ganz, QB, Nebraska

Star of Tomorrow: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Tennessee @ South Carolina (November 1, 7:00, ESPN2): Coming off a bye-week and having won four of their previous five contests, the Gamecocks will host the Volunteers at Williams-Brice Stadium. But keep in mind that South Carolina hasn’t defeated Tennessee at home since a win on Halloween in 1992. The Volunteers lead the all-time series 21-3-2 dating back to 1903.

Super Senior: Carlos Thomas, CB, USC

Star of Tomorrow: Eric Berry, DB, Tennessee

Wisconsin @ Michigan St. (November 1, 12:00, ESPN): The Badgers have won seven of the last 10 meetings between the schools, but fell 49-14 in their last trip to Spartan Stadium in 2004. Wisconsin’s defense will get to know the senior running back for the No. 22 Spartans, Javon Ringer, before the day is through. Ringer currently leads the country in touchdowns (16) and ranks second in the nation in rushing (1,373), as well as all-purpose yardage (1,717).

Super Senior: Otis Wiley, S, Michigan State

Star of Tomorrow: David Gilreath, WR, UW

Photo Credit: OU Athletics Department

This Date in College Football History

Sept. 23, 1967: Frank Dickinson, an economics professor at the University of Illinois, passes away at age 67. Dickinson developed a mathematical point system (Dickinson system) to divide football teams into two categories, those who had higher than .500 winning percentage and those below. The system was originally intended to award the top team in the Big Ten, but Notre Dame head coach Knute Rockne convinced Dickinson to use the ranking nationally and to predate the ranking. The system was used from 1924-1940 to award the Rissman National Trophy and the Knute K. Rockne Intercollegiate Memorial Trophy.

Credit: The National Football Foundation & College Hall of Fame

This Date in College Football History

September 18, 1999: Cincinnati stuns No. 9 Wisconsin and eventual Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne 17-12 at Nippert Stadium, as the Bearcats grab their first-ever win over a ranked opponent. The Badgers end the season with a No. 4 ranking and a Rose Bowl victory, while Cincy finishes 3-8.


Credit: The National Football Foundation & College Hall of Fame

WISCONSIN'S LEVY IS BRONKO NAGURSKI PLAYER OF THE WEEK

DALLAS (FWAA) - Wisconsin linebacker DeAndre Levy has been named the FWAA/Bronko Nagurski National Defensive Player of the Week for games of the weekend of Sept. 13.

Levy, a 6-3, 228-pound senior from Milwaukee, Wis., registered nine tackles (four tackles for loss), a pass breakup and an interception in the Badgers' 13-10 victory at Fresno State. Levy picked off a tipped pass in the first quarter, setting up the Badgers' only touchdown and, late in the game, Levy came up with a key third-down sack on Fresno State's final possession.

Levy will be added to the 2008 Bronko Nagurski Trophy Watch List. The Bronko Nagurski Trophy will be presented to the best defensive player in college football on Dec. 7 by the FWAA and the Charlotte Touchdown Club at the Westin Hotel in Charlotte, N.C. Five finalists for the Nagurski Trophy will be announced on Nov. 17.

Each week during the 2008 season the FWAA All-America Committee will select a national defensive player of the week from nominations made by the 11 Division I Bowl Subdivision Conferences and major independents.

Last season, LSU tackle Glenn Dorsey won the coveted Bronko Nagurski Trophy during the 13th season the FWAA has named a national defensive player of the year.

This Date in College Football History

September 16, 2000: Pitt blanks Penn State 12-0 at Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh during the last scheduled game of the intrastate rivals. Panthers' QB John Turman throws for 272 yards and the game's only TD, allowing Pitt its first win in the series since 1988.

Credit: The National Football Foundation & College Hall of Fame

This Date in College Football History

September 15, 1973: Northwestern defeats Big Ten rival Michigan State 14-10 in Evanston, giving the Wildcats' their first season-opening win in six years.

Credit: The National Football Foundation & College Hall of Fame

CFI RANKINGS: #1 OHIO ST. BUCKEYES

2007 RECORD: 11-2; BIG TEN: 7-1
Lost BCS Championship Game vs. LSU 38-24
LOCATION: Columbus, Ohio
STADIUM: Ohio Stadium (102,329)
HEAD COACH: Jim Tressel
OVERALL: 208-73-2 (22 seasons)
AT OHIO ST.: 73-16 (7 seasons)

The last two seasons Jim Tressel has led his Buckeyes all the way to the BCS Championship game, only to be thrashed by an SEC team each time. Several players seriously considered declaring for the NFL draft, going so far as to send their names to the NFL for evaluation. Ultimately, only Vernon Gholston made the jump. Whether they didn’t like their grade or the call of a potential National Championship was too strong to pass up, the return of several key senior starters makes OSU the team to beat.

WHEN THE BUCKS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jim Bollman (8th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 9
KEY LOSSES: Kirk Barton

Lost in last season’s run was the outstanding job by signal caller Todd Boeckman. He was taking over a team that had lost in the BCS Championship game the previous season and for Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith. Boeckman rallied the troops and brought them to the brink of a national championship. He has a good arm and is a better athlete than he’s given credit for. Eight Buckeyes caught 10 or more passes a year ago and all eight are back, led by senior Brian Robiskie. The son of a coach, Robiskie runs crisp routes, has reliable hands, and plays faster than his 40-time. Four of five blockers return along the line, led by senior LT Alex Boone. He possesses the size and mobility to protect the QB and lead the way in the rushing attack, which leads us to the focal point of Ohio St.’s offensive attack. Junior TB Chris “Beanie” Wells tops several Heisman lists and depending on how many touches he receives, Wells could make a run at 2,000 yards. The fact that legendary Buckeye Archie Griffin would even mention Beanie’s name in the same breath as Jim Brown’s tells you all you need to know about this tailback.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) QB RB Chris Wells (JR), 2) OT Alex Boone (SR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jim Heacock (4th Season/13th at OSU)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 9
KEY LOSSES: Vernon Gholston, Larry Grant

The two players that surprised the NFL the most by returning were MIKE James Laurinaitis and cover corner Malcolm Jenkins—a duo that many had slotted as first round picks. Their time will come, but not before they try to capture a third straight Big Ten title. Laurinaitis is a speedy playmaker who can do it all—stop the run, get after the quarterback, and drop into coverage. Not too far behind is fellow senior Marcus Freeman, who possesses excellent size and speed. He may be overshadowed, but Freeman is one of the top linebackers in the Big Ten, if not the country. Jenkins leads a stellar and experienced secondary. The senior corner can lock people down or drop into a zone and read the QBs eyes. He is a solid tackler and can play some safety if need be. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue with returning starters Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell manning the safety positions. Keep an eye on sophomore Chimdi Chekwa, the next in the line of outstanding Buckeye corners. Up front, they will miss Gholston’s pass-rushing ability, but may have the answer in Lawrence Wilson if the senior can return to 100 percent. The top talent along the line is sophomore end Cameron Heyward, who is both powerful and quick—another star in the making.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) CB Malcolm Jenkins (SR), 2) LB James Laurinaitis (SR)

THE SCHEDULE

With the Big Ten down, many view the Buckeyes as having a one-game season. Go into the Coliseum and beat the USC Trojans on their field and OSU can punch their ticket to a third straight title appearance. Is it that simple? Of course not. Is that their biggest game of the year? You can bet your bottom dollar. In the Big Ten they still have to play Wisconsin, Penn St., Illinois and Michigan, all of whom are ranked, thank you very much. Illinois knocked them off last season in Columbus and Madison is never an easy place to go to. In 2003, No. 23 Wisconsin knocked off the No. 3 ranked Buckeyes—the two schools have not squared off the last two seasons. Another potential road bump is a trip to East Lansing to take on an improved Spartans squad.

PIVOTAL POINT

The Regular Season: Yes, this is the part of the schedule that the Buckeyes have conquered in each of the past two seasons. However, any athlete will tell you one of the most difficult things to do is understand that you do not start where you left off the previous year, especially when you’ve come so close to reaching the pinnacle. Ohio St. did exactly that last season…can they do it again? James Laurinaitis leads a group of players who dabbled with the idea of jumping to the NFL, but ultimately decided to return to Columbus. The Butkus and Bednarik Award winner can say that they did not return just to finish the job, but winning the title has to be on their minds. They have the team to it, as long as they follow the coach’s cliché and take it one game at a time.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

It can only be about the title for the Buckeyes this season—there are no more moral victories. They return nine starters on both sides of the ball from a team that made the BCS Championship for a second straight season. It is time to get out there again and, this time, finish the job. In “Beanie” Wells they have a difference maker who can elevate an already great team to even higher levels. Expect Boeckman to be better in his second year as starter and their defense to be even more dominant. This is the year Tressel claims his second national title.

Photo Credit: Collegiate Images

Ohio St. Makes Tressel Top Paid Coach

Ohio State coach Jim Tressel has agreed to contract revisions that will make him the highest-paid football coach in the Big Ten Conference. Tressel's compensation beginning in February will be $3.5 million, a $1 million increase, the school said Friday.

Tressel will receive annual increases of 3 percent to 4 percent. He has a 73-16 record at Ohio State and is under contract until 2013. Tressel begins his eighth season as coach of the second-ranked Buckeyes. The team opens Saturday at home against Youngstown State.

CFI RANKINGS: #10 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

2007 RECORD: 9-4; BIG TEN: 6-2
Lost Rose Bowl vs. USC 49-17
LOCATION: Champaign, Illinois
STADIUM: Memorial Stadium (65,000)
HEAD COACH: Ron Zook
OVERALL: 36-37 (6 seasons)
AT ILLINOIS: 13-23 (3 seasons)

We knew Ron Zook could recruit—see the 2006 BCS Champion Florida Gators—but last season Zook showed us that he can in fact coach a little too. When he arrived in Champaign, the Illini were coming off back-to-back losing seasons in which they combined to win four games (19 losses). It wasn’t a quick turnaround for the Zooker—he won four games in his first two seasons (19 losses)—but quietly he was building the foundation. Last year Illinois broke through, not only qualifying for a bowl, but the Rose Bowl. They won nine games which, if you do your math right, is one more than the previous four seasons combined.

WHEN THE ILLINI HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mike Locksley (4th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 7
KEY LOSSES: Rashad Mendenhall, Martin O’Donnell, Akim Millington, Jacob Willis

Rashad Mendenhall is a big loss, but don’t shed too many tears for the Illini’s rushing attack. They return three-fifths of their offensive line and in Juice Williams they have one of the nation’s top running quarterbacks. Williams has a thick lower body which allows him to use his power as well as his athleticism to break tackles. Williams also does not run simply to pad his numbers, but when the team needs him the most—his yards count. Replacing Mendenhall will likely fall to more than one man. Senior RB Daniel Dufrens showed glimpses of his breakaway ability in backup duty. Freshmen Mikel LeShoure, Troy Pollard and Jason Ford will get their chances, with LeShoure packing a big punch at 240 pounds. Williams is still a work in progress as a passer, but the arm strength and potential are there. Sophomore WR Arrelious Benn was as good as advertised and should even better in year number two as a starter now that he is completely healthy. Jeff Cumberland has potential and was underutilized last season.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) WR Arrelious Benn (SO), 2) TE/WR Jeff Cumberland (JR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

CO-DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Dan Disch (2nd Season/4th at Illinois)
CO-DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Curt Mallory (2nd Season/4th at Illinois)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 6
KEY LOSSES: J Leman, Antonio Steele, Justin Harrison, Kevin Mitchell, Justin Sanders

Up front, none of their players would be described as spectacular, but they have an excellent rotation at defensive end, led by seniors Will Davis and Derek Walker sharing time with junior Doug Pilcher. Davis is their top pass rusher, with Pilcher providing some big plays off the bench. In the interior, senior DT David Lindquist is their top run stuffer. The back seven features two of the most physically gifted and talented defenders in the nation in junior CB Vontae Davis and sophomore LB Martez Wilson. Davis is further ahead of the curve with two years of experience as a starter, while Wilson is more of a raw talent still learning the ropes. Both are explosive and potential difference makers. Leading the group in the huddle will be senior Brit Miller, who slides over from OLB to MIKE, taking the place of J Leman. They have talent at safety, but they are unproven. Whether it be at safety or sprinkled in the front seven, expect an influx of young talent on the defensive side of the ball.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) CB Vontae Davis (JR), 2) LB Martez Wilson (SO)

THE SCHEDULE

The Illini have a chance to show the college football world that last season was not a fluke when they take on “Arch” rival Missouri to kick off the season. Last season neither team was ranked to start the year…this time around, both are. One thing is for sure—if they are to reach nine wins again, the Illini will have to earn it. They must visit Penn St., Michigan and Wisconsin, with their trips to Happy Valley and Ann Arbor kicking off their conference schedule. That’s four foes in the preseason Coaches Poll before the calendar turns to November. In the season’s final month, they finally play a ranked opponent in the friendly confines as the Ohio St. Buckeyes make a visit.

PIVOTAL POINT

A more well-rounded Juice: Williams has been receiving high praise for his play in camp and is coming off a scrimmage in which he completed 16-of-25 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns (no interceptions). He can do it, he’s done it before, he just needs to do it on a more consistent bases. Against the No. 1 ranked Ohio St. Buckeyes, Williams threw four touchdown passes and no interceptions, handing the Buckeyes their lone regular season loss. However, in the Illini’s other 12 games, his TD-INT ratio was 9-12, which is simply unacceptable. His completion percentage of 57.3 also will not cut it if Illinois is to take the next step.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

The Illini may have arrived a bit ahead of schedule last season. Some might even say they were exposed by the Men of Troy in the Rose Bowl…but not so fast my friends. Although the Illini may not improve upon their 9 wins from last season, there's no reason to think they can't at least match it. With three tough tests in their first five games, the learning curve is steep, but no one can deny the playmakers are in place. Illinois is a sleeper in the Big Ten.

Photo Credit: University of Illinois

WHERE ARE THEY NOW: DUSTIN KELLER

Purdue tight end Dustin Keller caught 68 passes for 881 yards and seven touchdowns as a senior, before the New York Jets made him the 30th overall selection in the 2008 National Football League Draft.

CFI: Take us back a little right before the draft, at the combine--you weren't necessarily a household name and you really broke out in that combine, how important was that for you?

DK: I knew coming out of Purdue, just the way everybody kind of perceived me, that’s the way that was going to be. I knew the combine was going to (be that important), even though it shouldn't be that way, that a 40 brings a guy up so much. I knew that was going to be on a lot of people’s radar and a lot people’s draft boards. You know I had the best possible outcome there. I just gave it everything I had.

CFI: I remember hearing before that, people saying, “he's got good hands, he's a playmaker but he's not that fast, he's not that athletic.” Were you scratching your head when you heard that stuff?

DK: Yeah, I don't know who put that in everyone’s head, but I was definitely determined to prove them wrong.

CFI: On draft day, the Jets traded up to get you. Did you have an inkling at all that the Jets were interested?

DK: I definitely had a thought they were interested but I didn't know they were going to trade into the first round, that kind of surprised me. I thought that if I fell that far back I was going to be picked by them as the sixth pick in the second round. But I didn't know they were going to trade into the first round.

CFI: What does that feel like when a team trades up for you?

DK: It feels great. It's an awesome feeling, especially when it ends up being in the very first round.

CFI: So far, what's it like--your NFL experience, learning under veterans like Chris Baker and Bubba Franks? How helpful have they been?

DK: They have been very helpful. Those guys have been around the league for a bunch of years being very productive. Bubba has been to a few Pro Bowls, Baker had an outstanding year last year and I'm just kind of picking at their brains learning things here and there and I think it's really working out for me.

CFI: What has been the biggest challenge so far?

DK: Just adjusting to the preciseness of the NFL. Everything has to be precise, be this certain way…you have to hit a guy at this angle--it's kind of crazy how precise it is, but I think I'm coming around.

CFI: How much do you think you’re going to be used as a pass catcher in the sense that you will be lining up wide?

DK: I couldn't give you a clear cut answer to you right now but I definitely feel that they’re going to utilize me somehow in that aspect, but we'll see.

CFI: How about this whole Brett Favre thing? Have you ever experienced anything like this in college or anywhere else, this whole media circus?

DK: No. I mean you can't trade players around in college or anything like that, but we never had any situation or story at my school, I guess, that is this big because it is a huge thing for the media but it's definitely an honor to catch passes from him.

CFI: How does it feel catching the first pass thrown to you, does it feel any different? Does it feel special?

DK: You know he throws a great ball of course, that is why he‘s been around playing for so long. But in practice, it probably wouldn't feel that different except we got a huge turnout from the fans and every single pass he completed there was just a roar from the fans like we were back in the stadium.

CFI: Is this almost like a spring game?

DK: Yeah, it almost was. It really almost was.

CFI: What do you think of Purdue’s chances this year and Curtis Painter's senior season?

DK: I talked to a few of the guys and they felt really good on where they are right now. I have all the confidence in the world in them. I think they'll get it done.

CFI RANKINGS: #18 WISCONSIN BADGERS

2007 RECORD: 9-4; BIG TEN: 5-3
Lost Outback Bowl vs. Tennessee 21-17
LOCATION: Madison, Wisconsin
STADIUM: Camp Randall Stadium (80,321)
HEAD COACH: Bret Bielema
OVERALL: 21-5 (2 seasons)
AT WISCONSIN: 21-5 (2 seasons)

Is the talent there for the Badgers to be ranked higher…maybe even challenge for a top ten spot? Sure. However, let’s not forget they opened the 2007 season ranked No. 7 in both polls and finished the year 21st in the Coaches Poll and 24th in the AP Poll. In five games against teams that finished last year ranked, Wisconsin was 1-4, with the lone win coming at home against a Michigan club that was sans Mike Hart and saw Chad Henne attempt a mere five passes (true freshman Ryan Mallett was 11-of-36 passing).

WHEN THE BADGERS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Paul Chryst (4th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 9
KEY LOSSES: Tyler Donavan, Luke Swan, Paul Hubbard, Lance Smith (Dismissed)

While we’ve seen more three wide receiver sets under OC Paul Chryst, the Badgers aren’t going to the spread as many Big Ten stalwarts have—power football is still how their bread is buttered. Even without Lance Smith, Wisky is loaded in the backfield led by junior big back P.J. Hill. Soph Zach Brown provides a little more shiftiness, while freshman John Clay is yet another 230 pound bruiser. Whoever is toting the rock, they would be wise to follow senior FB Chris Pressley. The biggest question is at quarterback, where Allan Evridge is expected to take over. He will have a pair of playmakers at his disposal in Travis Beckum—the most explosive tight end in the country—and sophomore WR Kyle Jefferson. The line is big and talented (what else is new?), but they need to be more consistent than they were a year ago.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) TE Travis Beckum (SR), 2) OG Kraig Ubrik (SR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Dave Doeren (3rd Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 9
KEY LOSSES: Jack Ikegwuonu, Nick Hayden

This unit is solid, but not spectacular. DE Matt Shaughnessy (broken leg in the spring) leads the front four, FS Shane Carter recorded seven interceptions, and OLB Jonathan Casillas is their leading tackler. Other than Carter, there really isn’t a playmaker on this unit—no other player had more than one interception and DE Kirk DeCremer led the club in sacks as a freshman with 5.5. If players like DT Jason Chapman, LB DeAndry Levy and CB Allen Langford (if healthy) step up their game as seniors, this can be an improved unit. CB Jack Ikegwuonu will be difficult to replace and corner might be their most vulnerable position. Freshman corner Mario Goins and sophomore safety Jay Valai are two x-factors in the secondary.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) DE Matt Shaughnessy (SR), 2) DE Kirk DeCremer (SO)

THE SCHEDULE

Upset alert: September 13…not only do the Badgers play Fresno St., they’re making the trip out to Cali and two weeks later, they open up the Big Ten schedule at Ann Arbor. Last season, Wisconsin struggled away from Camp Randall—losing at Penn St., Illinois and Ohio St. by an average margin of 19 points and dropping a neutral site game to Tennessee. Their only road wins came at UNLV (2-10) and at Minnesota (1-11), so the Badgers shouldn’t put a “W” next to those games at Michigan St., Indiana and Iowa just yet.

PIVOTAL POINT

Linebackers: Quarterback is the obvious choice here, but linebacker should be a team strength…but is it? Casillas’ overall tackles went up, but he had 3.5 fewer tackles for a loss as a junior with no interceptions and just one PD (1 INT & 6 PDs in 2006). OLB DeAndre Levy’s sack total was cut in half, from six to three. Neither made the progress expected in their second year as a starter. At middle linebacker, junior Elijah Hodge was so underwhelming that he is currently working as the third sting MIKE in camp. This group is a microcosm for the team…good, but not as good as advertised.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

Not many coaches have replaced a legend as seamlessly as Coach Bielema has at Wisconsin (21 wins in his first two seasons). However, after shocking the nation with 12 wins in 2006, this group failed to live up to expectations in 2007. They are a good, solid team, but could disappoint again if the bar is set too high. If they are to creep back into the top 10 or reach double digits in victories, Evridge (or whoever plays quarterback) will have to ensure they have a balanced offense.

Credit: Collegiate Images

CFI RANKINGS: #23 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

2007 RECORD: 9-4; BIG TEN: 6-2
Won Capitol One Bowl vs. Florida 41-35
LOCATION: Ann Arbor, Michigan
STADIUM: Michigan Stadium (107,501)
HEAD COACH: Rich Rodriguez
OVERALL: 105-62-2 (15 seasons)
AT MICHIGAN: First Season

Everyone is expecting a down season for the Wolverines with a complete upheaval in system and philosophy, not to mention a ton of losses on the offensive side of the ball…but they still cracked the Coaches Poll at No. 24. Michigan is still Michigan and there will be no shortage of talent—particularly on the defensive side of the ball. If Rich Rodriguez can find a quarterback, watch out.

WHEN THE MAIZE & BLUE HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Calvin Magee (1st Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 2
KEY LOSSES: Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Jake Long, Mario Manningham, Adrian Arrington, Adam Krause, Ryan Mallet (TRAN), Justin Boren (TRAN)

As if losing super seniors QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart and OT Jake Long (No. 1 overall pick in ’08 NFL Draft) wasn’t bad enough, junior wideouts Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington left early for the pros, and blue chip recruit Ryan Mallet transferred out. With WR Greg Matthews, RB Brandon Minor and RB Kevin Grady leading a stable of skill players, there is no shortage of playmakers. But who will run the offense? No one knows for sure. Another area of uncertainty is the offensive line, typically a position of stability in Ann Arbor. Sophomore Steve Schilling is a stud tackle and they always bring in top recruits, but it could take time for them to gel as a unit.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) OT Steve Schilling (SO), 2) WR Greg Matthews (JR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Scott Shafer (1st Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 7
KEY LOSSES: Shawn Crable, Jamar Adams, Chris Graham, Brandent Englemon

The Wolverines have the pieces in place to have one of the top defenses in the nation and it starts up front where they return all four starters. DT Terrance Taylor can dominate opponents at the point of attack, and ends Tim Jamison and Brandon Graham are each capable of reaching double digits in sacks. All three need to play with more consistency. The second unit has to replace two starters on the outside, including sack-master Shawn Crable, but sophomore MIKE Obi Ezeh is ready to step up and is a star in the making. The secondary returns both corners with Donavan Warren, one of the top freshman in the nation last season. They should be better at safety with junior Stevie Brown ready to bust out.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) CB Donavan Warren (SO), 2) DT Terrance Taylor (SR)

THE SCHEDULE

I know, I know, it begins and ends with Ohio St., but before they get to “the game” the Maize and Blue must protect the Big House. The season opens with the upstart Utes from Utah and how fast can you say Appalachian St.? Big Ten action begins with home games versus ranked foes Wisconsin and Illinois. They also play host to rival Michigan St., who could be much improved. Both their season and conference play begin in the Big House and Rodriguez had better take advantage of that.

PIVOTAL POINT

Quarterback: The fact that they’re replacing four of five starters along the offensive line is not getting enough attention. Nevertheless, Rodriguez’s version of the spread offense is all about the quarterback (see Pat White). Freshman Steven Threat and sophomore Nick Sheridan come into camp as the top two players on the depth chart, but the player who is creating the most buzz and may ultimately be the best fit in shotgun is incoming true freshman Justin Feagin.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

Talent at Michigan is a given. However it has been quite some time since the Wolverines have had to replace this much ability on the offensive side of the ball. There is also a new attitude adjustment they have had to make, as the traditionalists went “outside the family” in hiring Rodriguez to replace Lloyd Carr. Those who wonder whether their bowl streak is jeopardy are going a bit too far into the realm of doom and gloom, but a spot in the final top 25 is not guaranteed. They will go as far as their quarterback (whoever he is) takes them.

Newcomer Spotlight: Big Ten: Donsay Hardeman

By Brian Vornberg

Coming into 2007, Illinois did not have high expectations. This season, all of that has changed after the Fighting Illini were one of the surprise teams of the year and earned a Rose Bowl berth. Couple that with the talented recruiting class that head coach Ron Zook has just reeled in and there are high hopes going into 2008.

A huge part of this season’s success will depend on the newcomers, including safety Donsay Hardeman. Of all of Zook’s 2008 recruits, Hardeman seems to be the most college-ready after playing at Georgia Military College the last couple of seasons. He already has linebacker size and is capable of hitting like one too. I once asked Donsay about his favorite football moment and he mentioned a game in which he hit a guy so hard, he broke his jaw his three different places. He did feel really bad for the guy, by the way. However, it’s still a great football story.

Illinois had the good fortune of having Donsay fall into their lap in a way. He was originally a top-flight recruit in the 2006 class who was sought after by the likes of Miami, South Carolina, and others. However, he did not qualify academically, hence the last two years at Military School. Now Hardeman seems to have turned all of his academic troubles around and is looking to find a new home in Champaign.

Hardeman enters a great situation coming to the Illini, whose defense is already in great shape with young studs like linebacker Martez Wilson and cornerback Vontae Davis. It must be said that the young men challenging Donsay, namely Bo Flowers and Nate Bussey, are also very talented players. However, I believe Donsay Hardeman will be co-defensive coordinators’ Dan Disch and Curt Mallory’s man at the safety spot by the beginning of the season. He’s just too talented, intimidating, and vocal to keep off the field.

CFI: THIS DATE IN HISTORY

Nov. 27, 1982: Penn State advances to a national championship showdown with Georgia in the Sugar Bowl by topping Pittsburgh 19-10 to advance to 10-1. The Nittany Lions utilize the home field advantage and the passing of standout QB (and now ESPN broadcaster) Todd Blackledge (149 yards in frigid conditions) to topple the Panthers and QB Dan Marino for the second year in succession.

CFI: THIS DATE IN HISTORY

Nov. 21, 1925: Indiana and Purdue meet for the first time with the Old Oaken Bucket Trophy on the line. The 83-season tradition continues after the historic ’25 contest. The teams tie 0-0 in this contest and share the trophy six months each for the next year. It also marks the dedication of IU’s original Memorial Stadium in Bloomington.

Credit: The National Football Foundation & College Hall of Fame

Zook, Mendenhall honored in Big Ten

PARK RIDGE, Ill. (AP) - Illinois coach Ron Zook, his star running back Rashard Mendenhall and Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis were honored Monday night as the Big Ten announced its 2007 all-conference team.

Zook was named the Dave McClain coach of the year by members of the media for leading the Illini to a 9-3 record that included an upset of then top-ranked Ohio State.

Mendenhall was named offensive player of the year and Laurinaitis was chosen defensive player of the year in balloting for both the media and coaches.

Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long was named offensive lineman of the year for a second straight season, while Vernon Gholston of conference champion Ohio State was tabbed defensive lineman of the year by the coaches.

Ohio State has won back-to-back outright titles for the first time since 1954 and 1955 and Laurinaitis was a big reason. He led the Buckeyes with 103 tackles and had five sacks. His teammate Gholston had 10 sacks during conference play.

Mendenhall broke school single-season records for rushing yards, leading the Big Ten with 1,526 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns.

In addition to Mendenhall and Zook, the Illini garnered another honor: Arrelious Benn was named freshman of the year after catching 49 passes and being a threat on kick returns.

Zook guided the Illini, which won only two games last season, to a seven-win improvement in his third season on the job and has the program headed to a bowl game. Besides beating the Buckeyes in Columbus, they also defeated Penn State and Wisconsin this season.

Source: ncaafootball.com; Photo Credit: University of Illinois

Indiana is Tostitos Fiesta Bowl National Team of the Week

DALLAS (FWAA) - With their 27-24 win over Purdue, the Indiana Hoosiers (7-5) are the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl National Team of the Week for games of the weekend of Nov. 17.
Austin Starr nailed a 49-yard field goal with 30 seconds left as the Hoosiers won the Old Oaken Bucket for just the second time in 11 seasons.

With the win, the Hoosiers are eligible for a bowl berth for the first time since 1993. Indiana was led by Marcus Thigpen, who ran for a career-high 140 yards in front of Indiana's first home sellout of the season. Among those in attendance was Jane Hoeppner, the wife of late Indiana coach Terry Hoeppner, who passed away before the season.

"Well, that was a great win for our kids," said head coach Bill Lynch. "That's a happy locker room in there right now and it's really fun to see those kids that way. You don't don't get that opportunity very often to see a locker room with kids in there crying because they are so doggone happy. That's a neat feeling."

Other Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Bowl National Team of the Week nominees for the weekend of Nov. 17 included:

• Louisiana-Monroe (5-6): The Warhawks forced four turnovers in upsetting Alabama, 21-14, for their first win over an SEC team since 1995.

• Western Michigan (4-7): Tim Hiller threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns as the Broncos stunned Iowa, 28-19, in Iowa City.

The FWAA has named a national team of the week since the 2002 season. This is the third season that the award has been sponsored by the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.

Select members of the FWAA board of directors decide the weekly honor. Each Monday during the 2007 college football season, the FWAA will name the Tostitos Bowl National Team of the Week through Nov. 26.