Big Ten: “Mark” My Words

By JOHN SEARS

Here is a team-by-team list of statistics that will indicate how well the conference performed by season’s end. Let’s re-visit these after November 21st to see how wrong I was.

Key Statistical Markers of Successful Season

Penn State: Pass defense must average less than 200 yards/game: This is obviously a nod to the depleted secondary, which must re-tool all four positions. The front seven will be solid against the run. Losing edge rushers will compromise the pass defense further. Since 2005, Penn State’s return to the top of the conference, they have given up an average of 203 yards/game through the air, including the 2006 season where they reloaded all four secondary positions. The pass defense can help solidify this team’s identity as a stifling, smash-mouth rush defense.

Iowa: Must finish in top four (Big Ten) in rush defense and at least top six in total offense: Nothing fancy here for the Hawkeyes, just good old Iowa City football–strong defense and solid offense. There’s no need to excel per se on either side of the ball for Iowa to win the prize, but there is a desperate need to reload the defensive interior. The pass defense will be there this year and, just like Penn State, if they can shore up the potential weakness (against the run) in their defense, Iowa will have a shot every week this season. Top half in total offense will indicate that the running game was established, despite the absence of the injured Jewel Hampton. If so, quarterback Ricky Stanzi’s job gets much easier, and the offense will click enough to put up solid, not sexy, offensive numbers.

Illinois: Must finish at least even in turnover margin and +10 in sacks: This will indicate to that the offense took care of the ball and more importantly, that Juice Williams continued to improve upon his touchdown to interception ratio. The +10 in sacks will show that 1) Williams’ blind side is protected well by Corey Lewis, a sophomore who emerged last year after dropping his red-shirt status and 2) that the Illini defense plays opportunistic enough to make plays. Altogether, this gives more opportunities for Illinois’ offense to be in better field position and eventually put up more points.

Ohio State: Rush defense must average less than 125 yards/game: We all realize that Terrelle Pryor is a tremendously gifted athlete, but it sure would help if the defense steps up and relieves some pressure from the offense. We’ve seen this as a classic recipe for the Buckeyes’ success in the past; it’s no surprise that Ohio State has held opponents under 100 yards/game five of the last seven years and coincidently has been in conference title contention (or champions). If the Buckeyes put up this kind of rush defense, they will have a much better shot at making another title run.

Northwestern: Must finish in top five in passing offense: Northwestern insists they plan on passing the ball this season, despite the fact that starting quarterback Mike Kafka’s strongest showing last year was as a running quarterback and the team lost 80 percent of its receiving offense from last year. Northwestern’s defense is already slated to be very strong, so the offense needs to step it up. If Kafka leads Northwestern to a top-five passing offense, it will convince me that the Wildcats will be complete on both sides of the ball.

Minnesota: Total offense must be split close to even: 55 percent pass, 45 percent rush yardage: Simple statistic, nuanced reasoning. As Minnesota shifts away from the spread and into a physical rushing attack, the rushing yards MUST be there. If so, this statistic will indicate that the newly installed offensive game plan was well adopted and that the defense held up its end of the bargain (there potentially wouldn’t be a need to pass, pass, pass if they fell behind).

Michigan State: The Spartans running backs must average over four yards a carry: Michigan State’s strength certainly lies on the defensive side of the ball. Led by Javon Ringer last year, the Spartans averaged only 3.3 yards/carry. A significantly higher rushing average will indicate that enough pressure was taken off the inexperienced quarterbacks, giving them more time to develop and then excel. This will also indicate more balance strategically, as the Spartans will be returning much experience at the receiver position, led by junior Mark Dell. This will force the opposition to come up with better game plans to stop Michigan State’s offense.

Indiana: Must lead the conference in sacks and win time of possession battle: It’s tough to find ways to indicate a successful season when you’re positioned at the bottom of the conference. However, Indiana returns their top-three sack masters from last year (DEs Jammie Kilrew 10.5 and Greg Middleton 4.0, and LB Matt Mayberry 5.0). Kilrew and Middleton have combined for 35 sacks the last two seasons, and stand to be the two biggest playmakers for the Hoosiers this year. Without having standout talent on the offensive side of the ball and moving to the pistol offense and a downhill physical running style, the offense will slow to a more ball-control style–quite fitting for the qualities Ben Chappell possesses taking snaps. These statistics will indicate the playmakers made plays and that the offense was able to take control of the game.

Wisconsin: Must finish at least 5th in the conference in total defense: Wisconsin is very difficult to predict. Their offense carries so much firepower...but only if newly designated starting quarterback Scott Tolzien, gives them consistency. Running back John Clay is ready to have a monster year running, and Wisconsin returns tight end Garrett Graham, David Gilreath, and Nick Toon as their veteran receiving unit. The yards and points will be there, but can they stop anyone? Last year, their 26.5 points/game against were the worst the Badgers have put up in their last seven years. They return five starters on defense, but the front seven seems awfully inexperienced on paper. A top-five total defense indicates, well, that the defense gave the offense the chance to win games.

Michigan: Must finish season with a positive turnover ratio: The Wolverines’ -10 turnover ratio was the only ratio in the red the last seven years, and was a difference of -24 versus their best turnover margin season, which came in 2006. A positive turnover ratio will indicate tons: the quarterback play will be improved, special teams won’t fork over the ball on every other attempted return, and the defense will be flying around the ball. Quite simply, losing the turnover battle loses games to begin with, and Michigan gave themselves no chance last year with the number of giveaways they committed.

Purdue: Must finish mid-conference in passing offense and rushing defense: Purdue’s strength lies in their pass defense, which last year gave up a conference-leading 183 yards/game through the air. They look as strong or stronger in the defensive backfield this year. However, they were dead last against the rush, averaging 175 yards/game against. So it’s obvious where the improvement needs to be for them to have a successful overall defense. On offense, not much experience returns at quarterback with senior Joey Elliott. Furthermore, Purdue lost most of their receiving playmakers (Desmond Tardy, Greg Orton), so the stage is not set well for Purdue to make a splash passing the ball.

Photos Courtesy of Mike Dickbernd, IU Athletics & Iowa Sports Information

Big Ten - Biggest Team Turnaround

4. Indiana: No doubt the 2007 campaign by the Hoosiers was in honor of their late coach Terry Hoeppner. They finished the season bowl eligible and took the Old Oaken Bucket with a last-second field goal victory against rival Purdue. They finished 7-6. This year the magic was gone and injuries took their toll on the team’s record as they finished a paltry 3-9

3. Michigan: By far and away the worst turnaround season on the losing front. Forget last year. This year Michigan lost to rivals Michigan State, Notre Dame and Ohio State, lost their consecutive bowl streak, failed to register back-to-back wins all season, and wound up with an obscene nine losses. It was a forgettable season to say the least.

1b. Minnesota: Last season they were 1-11. This season, they have notched at least seven wins, which is fantastic. A late season four-game losing streak tarnished their Disney movie season, but it was a formidable one nonetheless.

1a. Northwestern: 9-3 for 2008 in Pat Fitzgerald’s third season. He was 4-8 his first year, then 6-6, and now his Cats are eyeing the best season in Northwestern history – 10 wins, including the bowl game.

Bonus - Biggest Surprise:

5. Michigan State fell just short, losing to Penn State in their effort to gain a share of the Big Ten title.

4. Ohio State losing convincingly to USC 35-3

3. Michigan at 3-9 and losing to Toledo

2. Indiana topping Northwestern (the Wildcats’ only other losses were to Michigan State and Ohio State)

1. Wisconsin ranked as high as ninth then falling, falling, falling.

Tomorrow: Best Clutch Performance

Photo Credit: University of Minnesota Athletic Communications

Big Ten Preview - Rivalry Week

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

And down the stretch they come! The chase for the Big Ten crown looks like a three horse race – Penn State (6-1), Michigan State (6-1, loss to Ohio State) and Ohio State (6-1, loss to Penn State) neck-and-neck…and-neck. Penn State’s road to the Rose Bowl is most straight-forward: win and they pack for Pasadena as they will have beaten the other two. Ohio State needs Michigan State to beat Penn State, but that’s not all. The Buckeyes then need to avoid slipping over distractions in Columbus to take care of business against the sickly Wolverines (Ohio State then owns the tie-breaker with their head-to-head win over the Spartans). Michigan State has the biggest battle on their hands: beat Penn State on the road after Michigan beats Ohio State after a reversal of the magnetic north and south poles. Where are we when Ohio State needs to root for a team from Michigan (the Spartans) to win, while Michigan State will become the Wolverines’ biggest supporters as their in-state rivals try and knock off the Buckeyes? And by the way, five other teams are jockeying for bowl positioning. How’s that for the last week of the season in the Big Ten?

On to the games…

Michigan State (6-1, 9-2) at Penn State (6-1, 10-1) [Battle for the Land Grant Trophy]: Penn State is looking for their 800th win, all under Joe Paterno. OK, yes, I exaggerate…Michigan State is looking for their first win in Happy Valley since Lucky Debonair took first place in the Kentucky Derby back in 1965.

The keys to the game:
1. Penn State’s Clydesdales versus Michigan State’s Clydesdale: Michigan State star and heart of the offense, Javon Ringer (1,548 yards, 20 touchdowns) needs to show up big to have a chance. Penn State boasts the number one overall (259 yards/game) and rushing defense (102 yards/game). On the other side, Evan Royster (1,123 yards, 12 touchdowns) leads the Nittany Lions’ rushing charge (first in the conference, 218 yards/game). However, Royster’s rushing between the tackles has been less successful compared to earlier in the year—he’s broken 100 yards only once in the last five games (Michigan, 174 yards). Further, coaches seem to be holding Daryll Clark back, perhaps due to the concussion he suffered in the Ohio State game. Clark hasn’t scored on the ground since, well, Michigan (two touchdowns rushing). The team with more rushing yards has the best chance of winning because…

2. Air Clark and Air Hoyer have lost their wings lately: Clark has not thrown for 200+ yards since Wisconsin (244), and that was five games ago. His last two outings have included interceptions, doubling his total from the previous nine games combined. Nitpicky? Maybe. But Penn State has, like most teams, shown they struggle when they turn the ball over. Brian Hoyer, on the other hand, has thrown touchdown passes only once in his last four games (against…Michigan, three) and tossed two interceptions to Purdue last week. Further, Hoyer’s completion percentage has surpassed 60% only twice this season (at Northwestern October 11th and against Eastern Michigan, September sixth). Championship caliber play comes with mistake-free football, which means being smart through the air. The quarterback who makes the least amount of mistakes regardless of yards or touchdowns will give his team the best chance to win.

PREDICTION: Penn State is better equipped for this type of game – better defense, more options on offense, better leadership at quarterback. White roses signify purity, innocence, and sympathy--sorry Michigan State.

Penn State 30, Michigan State 17

Michigan (2-5, 3-8) at Ohio State (6-1, 9-2): So “The Game” billed up as the greatest rivalry in all of sports is on fall break this year as the Wolverines’ season was put out to stud after their bad loss to Toledo…or Penn State…or Michigan State…The Buckeyes, on the other hand, play host while playing their best football to date.

The keys to the game:
1. Michigan’s arms vs. Michigan’s hips: The tackling by Michigan’s defense outside of the Minnesota and perhaps Wisconsin games has been egregious. Attempting to arm tackle 6’1” 237 lbs of Chris “Beanie” Wells or the slippery 6’6” 235 lb Terrelle Pryor will only lead to bad things in the yards after contact statistic. The Wolverines need to tackle solidly to have any chance of preventing small plays from turning in to big gains, something they’ve been unable to avoid this season.

2. The safety dance: In the same vein, Michigan’s safeties must realize their “safety dance” is a series of maneuvers best executed when there is no partner behind them. Stevie Brown, Brandon Harrison and company may have the most simplistic recipe for success – keep everyone in front of them, hug your “partner” and do not let go.

3. Trench Warfare: Ohio State is ranked third in rushing offense (188 yards/game) and defense (115 yards/game) and second in total defense (287 yards/game). Furthermore, the time of possession battle sways heavily in the Buckeyes’ favor (31:55 vs. 27:29). Controlling the line of scrimmage typically is and will be paramount for either team’s success in the “Big Game”; it looks like the scarlet and gray carry significant advantages in the trenches, in case you needed any statistics to show the lopsided nature of this year’s contest.

PREDICTION: My prediction? Painnnn…in a Clubber Lang sort of way.
Ohio State 37, Michigan 13

Iowa (4-3, 7-4) at Minnesota (3-4, 7-4) [Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy]: Certainly the under-card, but a contest that will help separate those teams jockeying for higher bowl bids. With a Northwestern loss, Iowa can jump the Wildcats and finish fourth in the conference if they beat the struggling Gophers. If Minnesota prevails, they will hop Iowa in the standings but can only secure fifth place (Northwestern owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota). The Gophers’ magical season came to a screeching halt in November and they’re winless in their last three tries. Galloping toward a January bowl game has quickly turned in to a limp towards the finish line. An eight-win season would be nothing less than magical after a single-win season last year, but it will take some heavy lifting against a hot Iowa squad. The Hawkeyes have won four of their last five, including the stunner over Penn State, and it all starts (and finishes) with tough running (Shonn Greene -1,585 yards, 15 touchdowns) and tough defense (third in scoring defense and total defense, second in rushing and red zone defense). Iowa wins a close contest, which will be in their control most or all of the game

PREDICTION: Iowa 27, Minnesota 21

Illinois (3-4, 5-6) at Northwestern (4-3, 8-3) [Battle for the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk Trophy]: This is a meeting between two teams moving in opposite directions. Illinois is a win shy of bowl eligibility, having failed in their last two attempts (Western Michigan, Ohio State) to reach their sixth win. The big talk from the Illini camp after the Iowa win seems like it happened many moons ago as players and coaches alike seemed optimistic about the last three weeks of the season. Well, so much for that. Northwestern stands in the way (20 points/game against) defensively, led by junior defensive end Corey Wootton. No one seems to be discussing Coach Pat Fitzgerald’s job in his third year in charge of the Wildcats--four wins in 2006, followed by six last year, and now at least eight and possibly 10 this year speaks volumes for the coach’s mettle (and if Iowa loses, they secure fourth place in the conference). Northwestern wins this one old-school, middle linebacker style – with defense and grit.

PREDICTION: Northwestern 27, Illinois 23

Indiana (1-6, 3-8) at Purdue (1-6, 3-8) [Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket]: So as it breaks down here, if Purdue wins and Michigan loses…wait…whatever.

PREDICTION: Purdue - Old Oaken Bucket, Indiana – the comfort of last place in the Big Ten again.

Cal Poly (8-1) at Wisconsin (6-5, 3-5): Cal Poly’s undefeated season was dashed early in the year by none other than Montana (30-28), but the Mustangs have steadily improved and now hold the third spot in the FCS polling (James Madison first, Appalachian State two). Short of those aforementioned magnetic poles reversing Saturday afternoon, the Badgers will tidy up their record and finish with a seven-win season.

PREDICTION: Winner - Wisconsin, Losers – Cal Poly and college football fans tired of seeing fat cat FBS schools filling in their 12th game with FCS opponents.

Photo Credit: Michigan State Athletic Communications

Big Ten Power Rankings - Week Twelve

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

1. Penn State (1) 10-1 W: 34-7 vs. Indiana
It took a while--half of a game to be exact--for Penn State to shake the ill-effects of their disappointing loss last week. Indiana hung around and trailed only 10-7 at half-time, but salvaged only one first down in the second half against the tightened up Nittany Lions’ defense. The offense has been less than impressive two weeks running now, but Deon Butler still managed to break the school record of receptions (167) and Derek Williams added two scores of his own. The Penn State hog mollies up front need to shore up their game if they plan on celebrating a Big Ten championship and trip to the Rose Bowl.

2. Ohio State (2) 9-2 W: 30-20 at Illinois
By far and away the Big Ten’s hottest team put away memories of last year’s upset win by Illinois in Columbus, which dashed the Buckeyes’ undefeated season. As predicted under blustery winter conditions, Ohio State took to the ground and ran through, around, and over Illini defenders. Beanie Wells and Terrelle Pryor cashed in on rushing scores while gaining 143 and 110 yards on the ground, respectively. “The Game” is what’s left for Ohio State to complete their season turnaround and hopes for a share of the Big Ten crown.

3. Michigan State (3) 10-2 BYE
Michigan State is holding strong during the bye week; they cannot afford what teams have grown accustomed to this year – the post-bye week blues--as they head into their “Big Ten Championship Game”, rivalry game, and capstone to a brilliant Spartan season. Onward to Happy Valley.

4. Iowa (4) 7-4 W: 22-17 vs. Purdue
Rushing and defense. That’s the Hawkeye recipe and it continues to work. This week, Shonn Greene did not reach the 100-yard rushing plateau; he eclipsed 200 (211 yards, two touchdowns) en route to Iowa’s 248-yard rushing performance. Defensive tackle Mitch King sacked Curis Painter late, and safety Pat Angerer’s interception help stave off a late Purdue charge. After a three-game skid, Iowa has won four of its last five, including the upset over then third-ranked Penn State. With a win at Minnesota and a Northwestern loss, the Hawkeyes can finish their season on a great upswing and sole possession of fourth place in the conference.

5. Northwestern (5) 8-3 W: 21-14 at Michigan
Snow, wind, cold, the Big House, whatever. Down 14-7 at the half, Northwestern posted touchdowns on their next two possessions to finish off the scoring and the Wolverines. The Wildcats can now celebrate their first eight-win season since 2000, the last time they beat Michigan. If Northwestern holds off Illinois next week, they will take over fourth in the conference with a nine-win season.

6. Wisconsin (7) 6-5 W: 35-32 vs. Minnesota
Surprisingly, Minnesota limited the Badgers’ backfield to only 116 yards, but Wisconsin was still able to punch it in on the ground three times (Hill two, Clay one) in their come from behind victory. The defense clamped down on Minnesota, forcing two safeties and allowing only two scoring drives (one touchdown, one field goal) in the second half. The Badgers can congratulate themselves for becoming bowl eligible and scheduling Cal Poly to end the year for a seven-win season.

7. Minnesota (6) 7-4 L: 35-32 at Wisconsin
After their brilliant 7-1 start, the Gophers have stumbled in their last three. Football is a team sport, but wide receiver Eric Decker’s miss on a Weber pass (returned for a touchdown by Northwestern) followed by getting knocked out of the next two games with an ankle injury has seemed to coincide with Minnesota’s demise. The Gophers (3-4) can redeem themselves by knocking off Iowa (4-3), who sits just above them in the conference standings, pushing up their bowl eligibility.

8. Illinois (8) 5-6 L: 30-20 vs. Ohio State
Illinois mistakes piled up too high against the wrong team. Poor special teams and two costly turnovers from Juice Williams stunted any chances for the underdogs to take down Ohio State. The offense put up 455 total yards (214 rushing, 241 passing), but the defense couldn’t stop the will of the Buckeyes rushing attack. The Illini must now fight to stave off bowl elimination next week against in-state rival Northwestern to finish off the season on a higher note.

9. Purdue (9) 3-8 L:22-17 at Iowa
The upside – Curtis Painter looked like he still has a little fight left in him (24-30, 190 yards, two touchdowns, one interception), throwing for a pair of touchdown passes in a game for the first time since Purdue took on Notre Dame, September 27th. The downside – their defense is what we thought it was – terrible stopping the run (248 yards). Purdue is one more loss away from the cellar of the Big Ten.

10. Michigan (10) 3-8 L: 21-14 vs. Northwestern
A season without back-to-back wins, the bowl and winning record streaks snapped, the game fumbled away in South Bend, the abysmal Toledo game, the lost winning streak against Penn State, a humbling loss to Michigan State and now their first ever eight loss season (thanks to Northwestern) can be redeemed…, maybe. It would be an improbable achievement—one that even a #2 ranked Michigan team could not accomplish–to beat Ohio State. Just win, Richy.

11. Indiana (11) 3-8 L: 34 -7 at Penn State
Simply overpowered by Penn State, Indiana tried their best to make the game interesting. Marcus Thigpen is credited with the Hoosiers’ only score of the game, a 57-yard scamper in the second to tie the game 7-7. But the defense then surrendered 27 straight to the Spread HD, defending a short field for most of the afternoon. On the bright side, the defense sacked Daryll Clark three times and forced three turnovers Indiana will try to o salvage something from the season as they close out at Purdue for their battle for the Old Oaken Bucket, defending it for only the third time this millennium.

Big Ten Preview - Redemption-packed match-ups

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

The penultimate week of the season brings the chill, the snow, the flu and the redemption in the Big Ten. A closer look at this week’s action proves that teams are playing for a little more than an extra notch in the win column.

Ohio State at Illinois: Mr. Juice Williams, welcome back to the Ohio State defense you single-handedly scorched in a clutch performance (four touchdowns, 60 minute drive to seal the game in the end) to stifle the Buckeyes’ undefeated run. Mr. Laurinaitis and Mr. Jenkins are waiting. If a 6-4 Illinois team coming off a convincing victory over Western Michigan were playing host, this game would have even more, well, juice to it. As it stands, the Illini will be very motivated to redeem themselves after last week’s loss and the Buckeyes will certainly be ready to avenge last year’s loss.

Last week, Buckeyes’ quarterback Terrelle Pryor (9-14, 197 yards, three touchdowns) and running back Beanie Wells (28-140, two touchdowns) helped light up Northwestern’s vaunted defense (16 points/game scoring defense before Ohio State’s 45 last week) and showed the conference the potential of their dual-threat offense. Illinois is mostly a one-sided team--the offense is tops in passing (278 yards/game) and total offense (448 yards/game) and second in scoring (31 points/game). Their defense has stacked up a conference-leading 32 sacks so far. If Illinois has more sacks than giveaways they have a chance, but Ohio State looks to be strong [as usual] down the stretch, outscoring opponents 90-17 in their last two wins. The Buckeyes best chance at winning is if Wells and Pryor combine for at least 200 yards on the ground in tough Midwest fall conditions (rain/snow/wind, high in the 30s). Buckeyes roll.
PREDICTION: Ohio State 30, Illinois 17

Northwestern at Michigan: Northwestern is in desperate need of redemption themselves, coming off a bad loss to Ohio State last week 45-10. They showed that teams having their number in the recent past are able to continue their dominance over the injury-plagued Wildcats. Not good news for those favoring purple – Northwestern has also taken their historically recent shots from Michigan. The Wildcats still seek their eighth win of the season, a tally unattainable since 2000 (Michigan had outscored them in 5 straight wins 161-66 since) which was when they last beat Michigan, in a wild 54-51 shootout. Michigan’s redemption is not directed towards Northwestern and is rather evident at this point in the season. They played like “the Michigan of old” against Minnesota last week and will continue to prove the team is on the rise.

Sloppy conditions are predicted for the Wolverines’ last home game of the season. Due to injuries for both teams at their starting quarterback and running back positions, this contest will likely come down to who gets the lucky bounce of the ball
(off the turf). Whoever holds onto the ball will have the best shot at winning. I am hesitant to give the edge to Michigan on that factor alone, but I believe the seniors on defense will carry themselves to victory in front of their home crowd.
PREDICTION: Michigan 25, Northwestern 20

Minnesota at Wisconsin: The Gophers are in need of redemption after their stunning loss of the Little Brown Jug last week against Michigan. On offense, they couldn’t move the ball (188 total yards) sans an injured Eric Decker and surrendered 435 yards to the anemic Wolverines…with their backup quarterback. In order to prove their success this season was not a gift from the scheduling gods, Minnesota must stop a two-game skid against the much-improved Badgers. If that does not motivate Minnesota, perhaps a recap of the last 35 seconds of their shocking 2005 defeat at the hands of the Badgers will do (38-34 on a punt block for touchdown). Wisconsin needs redemption from the beginning their season when they were ranked as high as ninth…now they’re clawing for bowl eligibility.

Wisconsin has steadily improved after their Michigan/October implosion, winning two of their last three. Last week, the offense ran and ran and ran for over 400 yards versus Indiana, so expect similar things this week. Minnesota is eighth against the rush (142 yards/game), but still tops in takeaways (27) and turnover margin (+15). Thus, if the Gophers can force Wisconsin in to passing situations, where they are second in interceptions (14), Minnesota may give themselves some short field situations to put up some points. But my feeling is that they will not, as they have managed on average just 17 points/game against Big Ten foes.
PREDICTION: Wisconsin 27, Minnesota 20

Purdue at Iowa: Iowa seeks redemption after last year’s 31-6 thrashing at the hands of three Curtis Painter touchdown passes in West Lafayette. Purdue seeks redemption on behalf of Coach Joe Tiller’s quite forgettable closing season. Iowa’s defense stifles Purdue and Shonn Greene (1,374 yards and 13 touchdowns) and runs wild on Purdue’s abysmal rush defense (175 yards/game), leading the Hawkeyes’ quest towards a major post-season bowl bid.
PREDICTION: Iowa 27, Purdue 10

Indiana at Penn State: Redemption? Practice? We’re talking about redemption? No need here.
PREDICTION: Penn State 41, Indiana 14

Photo Credit: Illinois Sports Information

Big Ten Power Rankings - Week Eleven

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

1. Penn State (1) 9-1 L: 24-23 at Iowa
Not the Nittany Lions’ best effort. A 30-mph headwind did not help matters, but seemed to bother Penn State more than Iowa. With the wind at their back in the third quarter, Penn State could not pull away; in the fourth quarter, Daryll Clark’s (9-23, 86 yards, one interception) third and long pass to Derrick Williams sailed high and was intercepted by Iowa, setting up their game-winning drive. All is not lost — just the Lions’ national championship hopes and an undefeated season…the Rose Bowl now looms as a disappointing consolation prize.

2. Ohio State (2) 8-2 W: 45-10 at Northwestern
Quarterback Terrelle Pryor looked calm and determined coming off the loss to Penn State. He kept plays alive with his feet and notched three scores with his arm. He was complemented nicely by the powerful running of Beanie Wells (28, 140 yards, two touchdowns) and a stout defense that gave up 294 yards and 10 points while taking the ball away three times. The Buckeyes are staring down another ten-win season (at Illinois, Michigan).

3. Michigan State (3) 9-2 W: 21-7 at Purdue
The Spartans handled Purdue for almost the game’s entirety, surrendering the sole Boilermaker touchdown with just under a minute left in the game. Michigan State, with Penn State’s loss and an extra game played, actually holds a half-game lead in the conference; their fate will likely be determined in their showdown with Penn State to end the season. Meanwhile, running back Javon Ringer (32, 121 yards, two touchdowns) should rest up after logging his 353rd carry of the season and FBS-leading 20th touchdown. Thumbs up to the defense for holding Purdue under 200 total yards.

4. Iowa (7) 6-4 W: 24-23 vs. Penn State
They did it. Coach Kirk Ferentz said before the game they needed to play perfect football to beat Penn State. It wasn’t quite perfect, but it was good enough. The Hawkeyes punched Penn State in the mouth immediately; pressuring Penn State’s passing attack and containing their rushing. Iowa limited Penn St. to almost half of their average offensive output (289 total yards). Daniel Murray ignored the gusty conditions and became the Iowa City hero, booting the game-winning field goal from 31 yards to seal the upset. Game balls go to Shonn Greene (tenth consecutive 100-yard rushing [28, 117 yards, two touchdowns]) and mother nature.

5. Northwestern (4) 7-3 L: 45-10 vs. Ohio State
The battle of quarterbacks between freshman Terrelle Pryor and back-up Mike Kafka (260 total yards, one touchdown) undoubtedly goes to the Buckeye. The Wildcats’ defense simply did not have an answer to Pryor’s fleet feet or Beanie Wells’ power running. Northwestern just looked outmatched against Ohio State (again), but can rebound next week on the road against Michigan.

6. Minnesota (5) 7-3 L: 29-6 vs. Michigan
Minnesota lost their leading receiver Eric Decker early in the game and could not find a way to recover offensively. Scoring in the first half certainly would have kept Minnesota in the game as their defense limited the Wolverines to five field goals in their first six scoring drives. Adam Weber had a tough go at it (13-24, 105 yards, one interception) and the Gophers were out-rushed 232-83.

7. Wisconsin (8) 5-5 W: 55-20 at Indiana
The three-headed monster of P.J. Hill, John Clay and David Gilreath combined for 406 yards and six touchdowns on the ground and the Badgers totaled 441 total rushing yards, tying the Memorial Stadium record. Wisconsin will host Minnesota and Cal Poly to finish off the season, both winnable games. Dustin Sherer (64-122, 770 yards, three touchdowns, four interceptions) and Allan Evridge (71-132, 949 yards, five touchdowns, five interceptions) have similar numbers at quarterback, so it seems the Badgers live and die by the run game. Run, Bucky, run!

8. Illinois (7) 5-5 L: 23-17 vs. Western Michigan
A bad hiccup on Illinois’ path toward bowl eligibility. Juice Williams threw two costly interceptions, which led to 14 Western Michigan points. A Toledo-Michigan replay? Like Michigan against Toledo’s Nick Moore, Illinois was unable to stop big, shifty receiver JeMarko Simmons, who gashed the Illini defense with 11 catches, 174 yards and a touchdown. Illinois now has two shots (Ohio State, at Northwestern) left at bowl eligibility, but may very well need both victories to find their way into the post-season.

9. Purdue (10) 3-7 L:21-7 vs. Michigan State
Purdue’s success against the Michigan team from Ann Arbor last week was squashed by the Michigan team from East Lansing this week. Dustin Siller and Kory Sheets combined for 182 yards and zero touchdowns (compared to last week – 461 yards, six touchdowns). They could not take advantage of four Spartans’ turnovers, while giving up a back-breaking interception returned for a score just before halftime. Bowl eligibility has now officially been squandered, so Purdue is left playing for Coach Joe Tiller, whose coaching pulse is down to two beats in 120 minutes.

10. Michigan (11) 3-7 W: 29-6 at Minnesota
Michigan sails up the rankings this week after keeping the Little Brown Jug in a surprising, yet impressive win over Minnesota. The defensive line implored the coaches to shift them back to a four-man front, which worked like a charm. After all this “change”, Michigan’s traditional base 4-2-5 contained Minnesota to six points (first half shutout), 83 yards rushing and 105 yards passing. Nick Sheridan took the offensive reins like a veteran (18-30, 203 yards, two touchdowns), but the Wolverines kept Minnesota off balance with 232 rushing yards. Third-string quarterback Justin Feagin lost his red-shirt but showed flashes of his running ability with 49 yards on seven carries. Potential energy yields kinetic energy in the presence of a catalyst. Was this Michigan’s catalyst?

11. Indiana (9) 3-7 L: 55-20 vs. Wisconsin
Holding onto conference’s worst slot is shaping up to be quite the battle. This week’s three-way scuffle leaves Indiana picking up the pieces after getting blown out by Wisconsin. The Hoosiers were unable to stop the Wisconsin ground attack, and needed a MASH unit to deal with their quarterback injuries. Thankfully, Purdue and Indiana square off at season’s end to settle this log-jam at the bottom of the conference on the field.

Big Ten Power Rankings - Week Ten

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

1. Penn State (1) 9-0 BYE
Penn State was in standby mode with the week off, awaiting a hard-nosed defense in Iowa. A walk in the park for the Lions? Hardly – the Hawkeyes are 36/44 (.818) when hosting teams at Kinnick stadium since 2002. And, Penn State has lost its last five to Iowa. The tester awaits.

2. Ohio State (2) 7-2 BYE
Week off for the Buckeyes so they can brush up on their geometric angles of pursuit at Northwestern. Ohio State has owned this rivalry, shutting down the Wildcats in their last three meetings by a combined 160-24 margin. But, Northwestern is coming off an improbable victory at Minnesota. The Buckeyes are 1-4 coming off bye weeks under Coach Jim Tressel, but are also 15-2 after coming off a loss.

3. Michigan State (4) 8-2 W: 25-24 vs. Wisconsin
A big come from behind win for the Spartans, proving they belong in the conversation when it comes to the elite in the Big Ten. A last second 44-yard field goal by Brett Swenson sealed the comeback over the Badgers. Blair White stepped up his game (seven catches, 164 yards) and Javon Ringer added in two touchdowns. OK, OK, I will finally give the Spartans some street cred. Purdue and Penn State are what’s left for at least a share of the Big Ten title.

4. Northwestern (7) 7-2 W: 24-17 at Minnesota
I get the feeling that Northwestern quarterback Mike Kafka is to Minnesota what Bucky Dent was to the Boston Red Sox. Mike *Bleeping* Kafka torched the stout Gophers defense for 214 on the ground (NWU school record). Brendan Smith sealed the game with an interception returned for six; the Wildcats had a most unorthodox victory (injuries, rushing, tough opponent), but they keep clawing through the season.

5. Minnesota (3) 8-2 L: 24-17 vs. Northwestern
I previewed this game by saying the team with the most turnovers + sacks would win the game: they both finished with two sacks and two turnovers; but, Northwestern’s interception with seconds left on the clock was returned for the game-winning score. With the loss, the Gophers are essentially eliminated from the Big Ten title, but can still fight for a January bowl.

6. Illinois (8) 5-4) W: 27-24 vs. Iowa
A tough, hard-nosed football game, yet again coming down to last second heroics by the kicker. This time around, Illinois’ Matt Eller sent the crowd and the Illinois sideline into a frenzy with his game-winning 46-yard field goal. Coach Ron Zook says there’s still plenty to fight for and his team is looking to finish strong down the stretch. They have the opponents to prove themselves with (Ohio State, at Northwestern).

7. Iowa (5) 5-4 L: 27-24 at Illinois
Iowa showed plenty of heart in their last second loss to Illinois. Shonn Greene posted his ninth consecutive 100-yard rushing performance (21, 103, one touchdown) and helped set-up successful play-action passes (at least in the first half). After the Illini responded with half-time adjustments, Iowa’s offensive passing attack was stunted. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi kept the Hawkeyes alive until their final drive, and defensive tackle Mitch King was a stud, putting pressure on Juice Williams and the Illinois offense all afternoon. It was tough to see one team have to lose in this one.

8. Wisconsin (6) 4-5 L: 25-24 at Michigan State
The Badgers had this game in their fingertips (11-point lead in the fourth quarter) but let it slip away in a tough loss in East Lansing. Penalties killed Wisconsin down the stretch (12 penalties for 121 yards), and allowed the Spartans to triumph via a game-winning field goal.

9. Purdue (10) 3-6 W: 48-42 vs. Michigan
Justin Siller, in a gutsy performance (21-34, 266 yards, three touchdowns), notched his first career win as quarterback. The pressure on Siller was deflated by the impressive running by Kory Sheets (30 carries, 118 yards, three touchdowns). Hats off to Coach Joe Tiller for pulling out all the stops to punch in the game winner on a trick play and to bring that losing streak to a halt.

10. Indiana (9) 3-6 L: 37-34 vs. Central Michigan
Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour put up huge numbers (35-53, 485 yards, four touchdowns), as expected, en route to a fourth quarter comeback victory. When he gets hot, it’s tough for any team to keep up, let alone Indiana. Oh wait, it was the Chips’ backup signal-caller, Brain Brunner? Oh boy…

11. Michigan (11) 2-7 L: 48-42 at Purdue
It’s all over. The winning record streak, the consecutive bowls streak, beating Purdue streak (since 2000). In retrospect, it was probably a bad time to bring in the stack (3-3-5) as the defense looked unprepared and ill-equipped to stop Kory Sheets from running wild all afternoon. Who knows if they would have given up 48 points if they had stayed with the 4-3? Hats off to frosh Martavious Odoms, frosh Darryl Stonum, and senior LaTerryal Savoy for posting their first career touchdowns.

Big Ten Power Rankings - Week Seven

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

1. Penn State (1) 8-0 W: 46-17 vs. Michigan
For a half it looked like Michigan walked in to the cubs’ not the Lions’ den. Penn State was the lesser team for the first half, but dispelled any questions whether they belong in talks about the nation’s elite by turning a half-time deficit in to a blowout victory. Seven consecutive scoring drives in the second half will do that (plus a safety, three sacks, and a blocked punt). The conference title most likely on the line next week in Columbus. Get ready because…

2. Ohio State (2) 7-1 W: 45-7 @ Michigan State
Ohio State proved they are still an elite team in the conference by jumping all over the Spartans. Buckeye quarterback Terrelle Pryor showed up big scoring two rushing touchdowns early en route to a 21-0 lead. Michigan State perhaps came in to the game a little too emotional, making costly mistakes (poor containment, tackling, fumble in their own territory) that the Spartans essentially could not recover from. Based on their offensive changes and possible win over Penn State, Ohio State has every right to be in the thick of BCS discussions.

3. Minnesota (4) 6-1 BYE
Minnesota’s week off allows the team an extra week to prepare for a stumbling Purdue in West Lafayette. The Gophers are certainly the darling of the conference, essentially reversing their record from last year (1-11) behind a young, promising offense and opportunistic defense. And to boot, there are rumblings surfacing that the Gophers are expecting a January bowl bid. Wow.

4. Michigan State (3) 6-2 L: 35-7 vs. Ohio State
Michigan State, maybe have been a little too excited for a game billed as one of their biggest in recent memory and they played with more emotion than discipline. An early fumble on offense and abysmal containment on defense allowed the Buckeyes to stretch out to a 21-0 lead. The Spartans could not answer as Javon Ringer was consistently stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Quarterback Brian Hoyer could not pick up the slack and the Buckeyes pulled away on a pair of fumble returns for touchdowns. The Spartans are still in conference running as they close the season against current conference leader Penn State. Can a visit to Ann Arbor cure the blues or add insult to injury?

5. Northwestern (5) 6-1 W: 48-26 vs. Purdue
C.J. Bacher (three touchdowns, one interception) wakes up and takes advantage of key turnovers by the Boilermakers. After falling behind 6-0, the signal caller led Northwestern to a 24-12 advantage at the half and never looked back, taking advantage of five Purdue turnovers. This game doesn’t show much in terms of Wildcat prowess, as Purdue is on the way down, but winning when you are supposed to win seems to be overlooked these days. With a reeling Indiana up next and Minnesota following, the Wildcats could conceivably challenge Ohio State for conference slotting.

6. Iowa (6) 5-3 W: 38-16 vs. Wisconsin
Running back Shonn Greene was a workhorse—powering, slicing and slashing for over 200 yards rushing and four touchdowns. He made the offensive load for Ricky Stanzi light, and one of the top defenses in country proved their worthiness yet again (Wisconsin rushed for almost 50 yards less than their season average and was intercepted three times). Consecutive losses are slowly being erased by much improved play.

7. Illinois (7) 4-3 W: 55-13 vs. Indiana
Scoring was expected from the Illinois’ offense. What wasn’t expected was that freshman running back Jason Ford would be the hub of the explosiveness, galloping for 172 yards and three touchdowns. Illinois went up beg early (28-7 halftime), which proved to be enough to close out an inferior Indiana team.

8. Wisconsin (8) 3-4 L: 38-16 @ Iowa
The Badgers are in an awful position, dropping their fourth consecutive game to start the Big Ten. Quarterback Dustin Sherer stepped in to relieve slumping Allan Evridge with no progress. P.J. Hill and the Badgers’ rushing attack was kept in check, whereas their defense could not do nearly the same against Shonn Greene (212 yards, four touchdowns). At this rate, Indiana and Cal Poly look to be the Badgers only possibilities of victory closing out this disappointing season. Will they be bowl eligible?

9. Purdue (9) 2-5 L: 48-26 @ Northwestern
It is hard to witness the Boilermakers skid in Coach Joe Tiller’s final run through the conference before retirement. The offense continues to sputter behind Curtis Painter and Northwestern capitalized on five turnovers. The defense played equally uninspiring, surrendering three touchdowns to the erratic quarterback C.J. Bacher. With Minnesota, Michigan, at Michigan State, at Iowa next up, are the Boilermakers left to save face in the Battle for the oaken bucket?

10. Michigan (11) 2-5 L: 46-17 @ Penn State
Basically, if you are preparing for the Wolverines, simply prepare to play the standard 60 minutes of football, and watch the Wolverines implode after the opening quarter. Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark admitted that Michigan punched them in the mouth for the first half (leading 17-14 and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball). Brandon Minor (117 yards, two touchdowns) ran with something to prove – that he is still a valuable asset not ready to be put to stud by the young horses challenging him weekly for playing time. The Michigan “two-faces” play at state rival Michigan State next week. Watch out…

11. Indiana (10) 2-5 L: 45-9 vs. Iowa
Nothing looking positive to build on for Indiana as they were handed their fifth consecutive loss. In their last two defeats (Iowa last week), the Hoosiers have been outscored 100-22. What’s left for Indiana? Hoops…and maybe keeping the Oaken Bucket for another year.

Big Ten Preview - Week Eight: Time for the Dust to Settle

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

1. Ohio State (3-0) at Michigan State (3-0): This weekend,the Spartans and Buckeyes will tangle in a Big Ten showdown full of title implications. Both come in with a single, non-conference loss, tied with Penn State on top of the conference. Luckily for both teams, the loser still survives as Penn State remains on both of their schedules.

Key Match-ups: Ohio State rushing vs. Michigan State rushing – Both teams bring great ball-carriers to the table (Michigan State’s Javon Ringer and Ohio State’s Beanie Wells) and are even in yardage on the ground (177 yards/game). But the Spartans yield more on defense (140 yards/game). Both teams use the run to set up the pass, but Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor will rely on the ground game a bit more to set up the pass. Otherwise, the Buckeye offense may struggle like they did against Purdue (222 total yards, 97 yards passing). Or, understanding that Michigan State is near the bottom of the Big Ten in pass defense (227 yards/game), Ohio State may consider using a passing scheme that can help set up the run. As for the Spartans, they will certainly need their run to set up the passing attack for Brian Hoyer who, despite showing steady improvement, has not faced the Buckeyes’ top ranked passing defense (165 yards/game). If Ohio State can keep the Spartans (eighth with a 37% 3rd down conversion rate) in third and long situations and out of the red zone (Spartans hold the top two scoring slots in the Big Ten – Ringer [84] and kicker Brett Swenson [68]), they have a better shot at leaving East Lansing with their heads held high in victory. Ohio State’s defense will pull through and keep the Spartans out of the end zone…barely.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 27, Michigan State 23

2. Michigan (1-1) at Penn State (3-0): First things first--the only number in Michigan’s favor is their nine game winning streak against the Nittany Lions. Other than history, there is nothing statistically that can prove this game will be close. One thing that is certain is that there will be a great deal of emotion emanating from both sidelines. Penn State’s Daryll Clark, Deon Butler and Penn State coaches talked the talk last week after their big win over Wisconsin claiming that Michigan is a tough, competitive group. Further, no current Penn State player has beaten the Wolverines which will allow the Lions to stay focused on the task at hand. From Michigan’s perspective, as much as they bottomed out against non-conference Toledo, they still believe they have enough fight left in them to get through the rest of the conference schedule successfully. This sort of speak seems to be coming mostly from the defensive side of the ball, which begs the question--how resilient can Rich Rodriguez’s offense be at this point of the season? Character, confidence, emotion, and pride are the catalysts for victory for both teams, albeit for different reasons. All the white that will blanket Happy Valley Saturday will not only lend support to the home team, but also inadvertently symbolize the Michigan surrender.

PREDICTION: Penn State by, uh, I can’t make a prediction now- my wife just told me she bought a $500 purse. PSU 500, Michigan broke

3. Wisconsin (0-3) at Iowa (1-2): After losing their first three games in the conference, the Badgers now get to head out to Iowa City to face the 4-3 Hawkeyes. Wisconsin needs: character, confidence, emotion, pride (yes, I am being redundant)…and a dash of some consistent passing. Tight ends Travis Beckum and Garrett Graham have been very quiet during their losing streak and their play must improve if Wisconsin is to cure their offensive ills. The Hawkeyes (98 yards/game) are solid at stuffing the run and that, coupled with Wisconsin’s decimated offensive line, will keep the Badgers sputtering in Kinnick Stadium.

PREDICTION: Iowa 24, Wisconsin 10

4. Purdue (0-2) at Northwestern (1-1): The future of quarterback Curtis Painter could very well be in the hands of the Wildcats. Purdue Coach Joe Tiller is hinting that his patience will soon run out on the senior, forcing a quarterback change for the future in junior Joey Elliott. This will finally light the fire under the senior signal caller, but he will remain in the hot seat.

PREDICTION: Purdue 29, Northwestern 17

5. Indiana (0-3) at Illinois (1-2): This game will look very similar to Illinois’ victory against Michigan two weeks ago. Lots of scoring and yardage and not much competition from the competition. Illinois stumbled last week, yielding costly sacks and committing untimely turnovers against Minnesota, but the Hoosiers do not hold the same big-play defensive capability as Minnesota. Thus, same result as the Michigan game, and the Illini will continue to confuse us concerning their true potential.

PREDICTION: Illinois 38, Indiana 23

Big Ten Preview - Week Seven: Shout-outs and Call-outs

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

This week dichotomizes teams in to those who are getting a shout-out or a call-out for their recent play.

1. Penn State at Wisconsin: Shout out…to the Nittany Lions for being first in the conference in scoring offense and defense, rushing offense and defense, total offense and total defense, and holding the 6th slot nationally. Call out…to the Badgers who started 3-0, ranked as high as 8th in the polls before suffering back-to-back second half losses to Michigan and Ohio State and tumbling almost out of the Top 25.

Key Match-up – Penn State offense vs. Wisconsin defense: Penn State offers one of the best receiving corps in the nation (Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood, Deon Butler) who combine for 56 catches, 869 yards and seven touchdowns. They will line up against a Badgers pass defense that has allowed only four scores through the air and 186 yards per game. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions are first in the Big Ten averaging over 250 yards per game rushing. Wisconsin has surrendered breakaway runs on the ground in consecutive weeks from quarterbacks and tailbacks alike. Wisconsin does not have the offensive firepower to trade scores with Penn State, so they must tune down the HD-spread to have a chance.

A Penn State fan dared me to pick Wisconsin here. So I will. It’s hard to think that Wisconsin will fall flat three games in a row (twice at home at night) considering their pre-season potential and veteran squad. The fifth quarter celebration returns even if the band doesn’t.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin 23, Penn State 20

2. Michigan State at Northwestern: Shout out…to the Spartans for rattling off five straight victories after a road loss to Cal to start the season and for rushing so well behind the legs of Javon Ringer (988 yards, 12 touchdowns). Ringer accounts for a whopping 86 percent of Michigan State’s rushing yards, 46 percent of their total offense and 66 percent of their touchdowns. Shout out…to Northwestern, who has started the season undefeated (5-0), their best start since 1962. Surprisingly, the school that brought the spread offensive attack to the Big Ten is mostly stalling on offense this season. Thankfully, the Wildcats have relied on a stifling defense to pull out their wins: third in the Big Ten in scoring defense (12 points per game), tied for first in sacks (17) and second in red zone defense. Certainly no one predicted at the open of the season this game would have bowl implications, but the Spartans and Wildcats are both a victory away from becoming bowl eligible. The big key will be how Ringer moves the ball and if he can convert red zone trips into touchdowns for Michigan State. Northwestern shut down Iowa’s Shonn Greene on the ground in their last game and will step-up similarly this week.

PREDICTION: Northwestern 17, Michigan State 13

3. Minnesota at Illinois: Shout out…to Minnesota and the steady leadership of quarterback Adam Weber (124-183, 1428 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions), starting 5-1 in his sophomore campaign. Shout out…to Juice Williams (431 total yards and three touchdowns) and Illinois for coming back with authority against Michigan (45-20) after losing big to Penn State. This game comes down to one simple statistic – turnovers. Whoever wins the turnover battle, wins. Illinois wins the turnover battle.

PREDICTION: Illinois 31, Minnesota 24

4. Ohio State at Purdue: Shout out…to Ohio State for regrouping after a devastating loss to USC, walking out of Camp Randall with a big win and remaining undefeated in the Big Ten with freshman Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. Call out…to Purdue for posting a 1-3 mark in their last four and playing completely uninspired football. This is an awful stretch for the Boilermakers to roll over: as Ohio State, Northwestern (5-0) and Minnesota (5-1) head up the next three weeks. What happened? Unless a sudden infusion of character and leadership arrives suddenly, Purdue continues their landslide.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 30, Purdue 17

5. Iowa at Indiana: Call out…to Iowa for losing its last three games after starting undefeated (3-0). Call out…to Indiana for losing its last three games after starting undefeated (2-0). Is it possible that both teams continue their losing streak? Give it to Iowa with their strong defense.

PREDICTION: Iowa 10, Indiana 7

6. Toledo at Michigan: This game’s outcome will rest solely on what Michigan team comes out of the tunnel. Is it the exuberant squad that championed a historic comeback against ninth ranked Wisconsin? Is it the sloppy team that coughed up eight turnovers against Notre Dame? How about the defenseless defensive-lapsing team that embarrassed the Big House by surrendering 45 points to Illinois? Who knows? But when you’re a team with the excellence and tradition that Michigan carries and is being called out by your coach half-way through the season, you better respond. I think they will...or won’t. As “Shoeless” Joe Jackson says to “Moonlight” Graham in Field of Dreams, “Look low and away…but watch out for in your ear.”

PREDICTION: Michigan 22, Toledo 17

Photo Credit: Illinois Sports Information

Big Ten Power Rankings - Week Six

1. Penn State (1) 6-0 W: 20-6 @ Purdue
Sure, Penn State failed to blow Purdue out of the water, but they were in control of the game from beginning to end and won their first conference game on the road. They’re still undefeated and facing a trip to Camp Randall. Running back Evan Royster is carrying a nice load of the offense (18-141, one touchdown), while the defense held Purdue to 241 yards total offense. Before the imminent clash of the titans in two weeks against Ohio State, the Lions have that stop in Wisconsin. Can you say “trap game”?

2. Ohio State (2) 5-1 W: 20-17 @ Wisconsin
At Wisconsin, Buckeye sensation Terrelle Pryor had big shoes to fill - he filled them, ran with them, and ran away with the distaste of the 80,000+ faithful in Madison. Two questions: 1) who does opposing defenses key against: Pryor, Beanie Wells, or Brian Hartline/Brian Robiskie and 2) Who wants to play Ohio State now?

3. Michigan State (3) 5-1 W: 16-13 vs. Iowa
Michigan State rounds off the upper echelon of the conference with a nice win against a tough Iowa squad. Running back Javon Ringer was held in check and scoreless for the first time this season (25-91 yards), but the Spartan defense stood strong against a late Hawkeye surge. A road tester against Northwestern will help continue to build credibility for a team already on the rise.

4. Illinois (7) 3-2 W: 45-20 @ Michigan
Excellent regroup after a bad loss last week (38-24 at Penn State). Thanks to a Big House record-breaking performance by Juice Williams (421 total yards), Illinois put up 500 yards on what was previously a formidable Wolverine defense. Illinois’ losses to two top-six ranked teams hang heavy, but this win may be a nice launching pad to make a run at the conference title.

5. Northwestern (5) 5-0 BYE
Northwestern rested up over their bye week. If the Wildcats take care of Michigan State at home, they have two or three winnable games after that (Purdue, at Indiana, at Minnesota), putting them in a serious position to spoil bowl positioning for the rest of the conference or, better, to earn an “A+” in gym class by taking the conference crown. They’re still too untested to rank higher.

6. Minnesota (6) 5-1 W: 16-7 vs. Indiana
Nothing flashy for Minnesota against the Hoosiers- they couldn’t get their ground game going but made up for it with solid quarterback play by Adam Weber (22-37, 274 yards). The Gophers shut out Indiana in the second half, slowly pulling away with three field goals from Joel Monroe (29, 42, 38 yards). Illinois is next, and a win would help build momentum and keep a dream season alive.

7. Wisconsin (4) 3-2 L: 38-24 @ Penn State
Two blown first half leads (19-0 at Michigan, 13-10 vs. Ohio State) are the first two for Coach Brett Bielema (previously 18-0) after starting the season undefeated. The Ohio State game proves much more costly than one loss – had they won, the Badgers would be right back in the thick of conference/BCS implications. Now, Wisconsin is in serious jeopardy of dropping three straight with Penn State coming to town. The Badgers can’t be happy with their schedulers either – this is the first time a team has ever started their conference schedule against Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Wisconsin has much more at stake now – their pride.

8. Iowa (9) 3-3 L: 16-13 @ Michigan State
Running back Shonn Greene (30-157 yards) outplayed Michigan State’s Ringer and continues to be a shining star in an otherwise punchless offense. The recipe exists for the Hawkeyes to be successful (strong rushing, solid defense), but their red zone offense and turnover margin are holding them back from beating comparable or better teams. This three game skid must end next week (at Indiana) before they square off against Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn State.

9. Purdue (10) 2-3 L: 20-6 vs. Penn State
College football is really about confidence. Don’t believe so? If Purdue had pulled off their overtime game against Oregon (which they were leading), they go into South Bend at 3-0. Against Notre Dame, they had the lead and could have blown them out, but instead found a way to lose by three. With this as Purdue’s backdrop, don’t you think the Boilermakers would have liked their chances a little more had they hosted the Nittany Lions at 4-0 instead of 2-2? You can bet on it. Next up? Ohio State.

10. Michigan (8) 2-3 L: 45-20 vs. Illinois
I can’t describe Michigan right now any better than as a partially eaten, discarded ice cream sundae: sweet, fun, and refreshing at first, but eventually turning soft and inconsistent with some lonely rainbow sprinkles (Wisconsin win) slowly running down the side of the cup. If it weren’t for the turnover margin, self-destructing offense and underachieving defense, I may have placed them higher. Luckily, Toledo comes to Ann Arbor next. Or is it lucky?

11. Indiana (11) 2-3 L: 16-7 @ Minnesota
Indiana falls in the middle of the pack for essentially every team statistic in the Big Ten except for penalties and turnovers, which they are last. Maybe the Hoosiers need a hard-taught lesson that discipline counts. Scoring too – they are third in total offense (421 yards/game) but only sixth in points (26.4/game). A visit from Iowa’s third ranked defense (281 yards/game) won’t make it easy for the Hoosiers to move in the right direction.

Big Ten Week Six Previews

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

Underdogs in need of some help from baseball legends.

Last week, the visiting squads needed to get off to early starts to stay alive. This week, the home teams will need to step up their games if they are to defend their turf. In light of the Major League Baseball playoffs, I have added some baseball legends whom, had they traded batting helmets for facemasks, could help out the underdogs.

Northwestern stays undefeated. OK, they are off this week. Who else comes out unscathed from Week 6?

1. Ohio State at Wisconsin: Badgers need Willie Mays to run everything down in center field.Against Michigan, Wisconsin could have been exploited over the deep middle several times. Slot receiver Martavious Odoms ran wild on several pass attempts last week, but the Wolverines lacked the necessary timing and experience to connect. In order for the Badgers to cash in at night at Camp Randall, they will need safeties Jay Valai and Shane Carter to not only track down balls launched over their heads, but also to close down alleyways around the box to stuff the run. Wisconsin has shown enough discipline on defense to do this (if you forget the second half last week). If they choose to merely maintain that run discipline and defend against Beanie Wells, it will leave time for Terrelle Pryor to make good decisions passing the ball and wideouts Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie will exploit the deep middle. The Badgers will lose a great game in a great atmosphere, perhaps on Ohio State’s last possession.
PREDICTION: Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 27

2. Illinois at Michigan: Michigan needs Ichiro Suzuki to put the ball in play. The difference between last week and this week for Michigan is that after one half of play, Wisconsin thought Michigan’s offense was inept and eased off the gas. This week, Illinois knows that the Wolverines can move the ball at times, despite being ranked in the pits for total offense (110th, 285 yards/game). Michigan needs to be able to hit for power, hit for average and play faster; but the Illini are much more athletic on defense than Wisconsin, which may counter Rich Rodriguez’s spread even more. Contrary to last week where Illinois could not keep up with their opponent (Penn State), it will be Michigan that will not be able to keep up with the Illini in a game that promises to be close…but not close enough.
PREDICTION Illinois 27, Michigan 20

3. Penn State at Purdue: The Boilermakers need Derek Jeter if they want to be playing for something worthwhile in November. Purdue’s season-killing skid usually starts a little later in the season, but they will need immediate leadership on both sides of the ball from the coaches and/or quarterback Curtis Painter to avoid an early collapse. The tools are there for Purdue to contend, but they need to piece this season back together fast. However, it’s a bad time to face a third straight loss as red-hot Penn State comes to West Lafayette looking to maintain their national championship hopes (averaging 515 yards/game and FBS-leading 33 touchdowns). Just as this year has panned out for Jeter and the New York Yankees, it may be a lonely October for the Boilermakers--Penn State rolls in a four-quarter sweep.
PREDICTION Penn State 42, Purdue 17

4. Iowa at Michigan State: Hawkeyes need Thurman Munson blocking home plate.
The NCAA officially lists Iowa’s offensive focal point (running back) Shonn Greene as “probable”, which is the good news. The bad news is the description of his injury listed as “head”. Oh boy. With a completely healthy Greene, this would have been an intriguing match-up of smash-mouth football between Greene (6th in the FBS with 133 yards/game) and Spartans’ tailback Javon Ringer (2nd in the FBS with 180 yards/game). Now I’m not so sure Iowa will have the offensive firepower to keep this one close on the road. Iowa must keep this one a low scoring affair by keeping Ringer out of the end zone. The Hawkeyes’ predecessors were not able to do it, and neither will Iowa.
PREDICTION: Ringer 21, Iowa 10

5. Indiana at Minnesota: The Hoosiers need Ozzie Smith to make some “short stops”. Last week, Michigan State went to Bloomington and piled up nearly 500 yards of offense on a porous Indiana defense. Combined with the prior week’s loss to Ball State, they had given up 966 yards and 84 points, which showed promise. This week, the Hoosiers go on the road to face a spread offense led by Minnesota’s sophomore quarterback Adam Weber. Weber will have to correct some of those mistakes that he and the Gophers made Columbus if they are to control the ball better this week. The Indiana defense needs an all-star performance, one that provides the offense with enough time to put up points on their own (which they have shown they certainly can). Who will step up on defense for the Hoosiers? No one.
PREDICTION: Minnesota 37, Indiana 30

Big Ten Power Rankings - Week Five

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER
1. Penn State (2) 5-0
Last week: W: 38-24 vs. Illinois
Red-hot Penn State wins convincingly against #22 Illinois. Star athlete Derrick Williams scores rushing, receiving and on a kick off return. Coach Joe Paterno hasn’t seen that since, well, never. They are first in points scored -- brought to you in “HD” format -- and second in points against in Big Ten.

2. Ohio State (3) 4-1
Last week: W: 34-21 vs. Minnesota
Ohio State’s new rushing attack with quarterback Terrelle Pryor (eight carries, 97 yards, three total touchdowns) and Beanie Wells (14-106 yards) in the same backfield left Minnesota’s defense helpless on their keys. The defense was opportunistic (three turnovers) and stout, preventing the big play (average 4.2 yards/play against). Not to belittle their poor performance against USC, but the Buckeyes with their new look will be a force during the conference schedule.

3. Michigan State (5) 4-1
Last week: W: 42-29 @ Indiana
Energizer Bunny tailback Javon Ringer does it again, amassing 198 yards and a score on 44 carries. More promising is quarterback Brian Hoyer answering the bell, passing for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Less promising, however, is the defense giving up almost 500 yards.

4. Wisconsin (1) 3-1
Last week: L: 27-25 @ Michigan
Tough loss experienced by Wisconsin at the hands of a schizophrenic Michigan team. Up 19-0 at halftime and perhaps looking ahead to Ohio State, the Badgers become victim to the second largest comeback in the history of the Big House. It is gut check time for the Badgers.

5. Northwestern (8) 5-0
Last week: W: 22-17 @ Iowa
The Wildcats preserved their best start in over 45 years with a come from behind win on the road at Kinnick Stadium. Northwestern quarterback C.J. Bacher was inconsistent at first, but out-classed (28-of-45, 284 yards, three touchdowns) Iowa’s quarterback Ricky Stanzi (21-of-30, 238 yards, one touchdown, two turnovers).

6. Minnesota (7) 4-1
Last week: L: 34-21 @ Ohio State
A tough draw for the Gophers to open up conference play against Ohio State. They hung with the Buckeyes momentarily, lost a key fumble and lost the game. Minnesota quarterback Adam Weber was gutsy and is a star in the making for the Gophers, despite a modest box score (23-of-36, 187 yards, one touchdown, one interception).

7. Illinois (4) 2-2
Last week: L: 38-24 @ Penn State
Maybe a tougher draw was Illinois squaring off against the unstoppable Penn State offense. Illinois was lead by star wideout Arrelious Benn, shredding Penn State’s defense for 110 yards receiving and two touchdowns on only four grabs. Defense seems to be the question mark – in their two losses, the Illini have surrendered 971 yards and 90 points (maybe unfair assessment as their other loss came to the number one offense of Missouri).

8. Michigan (11) 2-2
Last week: W: 27-25 vs. Wisconsin
First half: Build a deficit of 19-0 with 10 possessions netting 17 yards, five punts, three fumbles and two interceptions.
Second half: Within 12:33 of game clock, the Wolverines rattle off four touchdowns, rack up 242 yards, and absolutely steal their conference opener against Wisconsin. The defense finally cashes in and proves its worthiness. The offense and the problems with turnovers have, well, have I mentioned Michigan’s defense?

9. Iowa (6) 3-2
Last week: L: 22-17 vs. Northwestern
The Hawkeyes build up a 17-3 lead with a robust rushing attack lea by Shonn Greene (21-159, one touchdown). Unfortunately, Greene left with an injury and Iowa’s offense looked lost without him after coming out flat from halftime to give up a game-tying touchdown. Greene needs to stay healthy for Iowa to keep moving forward.

10. Purdue (6) 2-2
Last week: L: 38-21 @ Notre Dame
I thought that stat sheet stuffing by running back Kory Sheets (87 yards and a touchdown) and quarterback Curtis Painter (359 yards and two touchdowns) would be enough to overpower a pedestrian Notre Dame squad. Too bad I forgot that team intangibles such as character and overcoming adversity are just as important as statistics. And Purdue, again, doesn’t seem to have the fortitude to put together consistent quarters or games. Yet another Purdue let down.

11. Indiana (10) 2-2
Last week: L: 42-29 vs. Michigan State
Another game demonstrating an insurmountable tipping-point: a nine-point swing on a touchdown pass turned safety due to a holding call proved too much for Indiana to overcome. Quarterback Kellen Lewis and running back Marcus Thigpen carried the load offensively, but the defense yielded almost 500 yards to the Spartans.

Big Ten Week Five Previews: Quick Start Key for Visiting Teams

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

We have a lot to preview this week, so let’s get right to the match-ups:


1. Illinois at Penn State: Why Illinois must get off to a quick start – because it’s a lot easier to stand toe-to-toe 11-on-11, then 11-on-11 plus 107,000 of arguably college football’s best fans.

If Illinois can take the crowd out of the game by establishing an early rhythm, they may be able to walk out of the moonlit Happy Valley with a win. By far the most intriguing game in the Big Ten: both offenses are putting up big numbers (Illinois: 468 yards/game, Penn State: 538 yards/game), Illinois is averaging 225 yards/game on the ground while Penn State is surrendering a mere 50 yards per game rushing, and each team has a dual-threat quarterback (Penn State’s Daryll Clark and Illinois’ Juice Williams) compiling statistics worthy of post-season award consideration. Can Williams and his all-around game lead the Illini to victory? It appears to be too high of a mountain to climb at night.
PREDICTION: Penn State 38, Illinois 20

2. Wisconsin at Michigan: Why Wisconsin must get off to a quick start– because they can’t give a beatable Michigan team belief they can win and Wisconsin is not built to play from behind.

Dear Coach Bielema,
I am sure exactly what you need right now is for a know-it-all writer who never played college ball and never coached anything above high school girls’ soccer to tell you how to scheme against Michigan. But trust me, because, well…just because. Do not out-coach yourself. On offense, line up Ace-double Tight, and for the first three drives, do nothing but run right up the gut with P.J. Hill and company. You may go three-and-out every time, but that’s okay. Because what you will then do in the same set is work in play-actions, bootlegs, and nakeds. Let your receivers stretch the field on the outside, leaving room for your star tight ends (Travis Beckum and Garrett Graham) to work underneath all day long. Michigan’s linebackers are poor covering in space. Their defense prefers to play man coverage, which will then give you the chance, after dinking and dumping down the field, to hit your X or Z in man coverage (with an inconsistent free safety in Stevie Brown covering center field) over the top. Plus, you’ll see if Michigan’s defense is lighter, tougher, and in better shape or if they are just lighter compared to your giant front line. Trust me, I’m a doctor.
Yours truly,
John Sears, PhD
PREDICTION: Wisconsin 26, Michigan 16

3. Minnesota at Ohio State: Why Minnesota must get off to a quick start – because this will put pressure on Ohio State freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor who isn’t used to playing from behind.

Last week was a relatively safe environment to hand the offense over to Pryor (at home, against Troy) and he responded well with four touchdown passes. But Pryor, like any young, athletic quarterback, is susceptible to holding on the ball too long and taking costly sacks. Another week without Beanie Wells means Pryor should continue to get more carries. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota will need to play mistake-free football in their first true test of the season. Can sophomore quarterback Adam Weber escalate his magical season with a win and continue to bring chaos to the Big Ten? I say no. Minnesota will be too conservative, trying to limit the inevitable mistakes from the young Weber. That lack of derring-do gives Ohio State the victory.
PREDICTION: Ohio State 24, Minnesota 13

4. Michigan State at Indiana: Why Michigan State must get off to a quick start - because in their only other road game (a 38-31 loss to Cal), they fell behind early and didn’t have the firepower to take back the lead.

The Hoosiers need to get the bad taste out of their mouths, coming off a blowout loss to Ball State where they surrendered four touchdowns on the ground alone. This does not bode well as Michigan State comes to town hoping to ride their Heisman-hopeful, running back Javon Ringer (175 yards/game and 11 touchdowns). But if Indiana can restore their respectable rushing defense (35th in the FBS), and get quarterback Kellen Lewis working early, Michigan State may have to prove they are not a one-dimensional team. Ringer continues his Heisman pace, disguising the Spartans’ pedestrian passing attack.
PREDICTION: Michigan State 28, Indiana 24

5. Purdue at Notre Dame: Why Purdue must get off to a quick start - because they can continue to put doubt into a Notre Dame squad that was handled last week from start to finish (Michigan State led out of the gates until the final whistle). Where has NFL-destined quarterback Curtis Painter been? If Kory Sheets can shred Notre Dame’s porous defense as his Big Ten predecessors have in the previous two weeks, the passing lanes may be there for Painter to put up some good numbers. Purdue comes in balanced with Sheets running well and Painter playing well enough to put The Fighting Irish back at .500.
PREDICTION: Purdue 23, Notre Dame 14

6. Northwestern at Iowa: Why Northwestern must get off to a quick start – because at home the Wildcats are outscoring opponents 79-25 compared to their 24-20 win on the road against Duke.

Surely the Hawkeyes cannot be satisfied coming back from Pittsburgh with a loss; and now they host a Northwestern team that hasn’t been this hot (4-0) in over four decades. But are the Wildcats hot on the road as well? At face value, this match-up may look like the undercard to this week’s conference openers, but take note – these teams are a combined 7-1 to start the season. Quarterback consistency is the key: Northwestern’s C.J. Bacher needs to recover from his dismal four-interception performance against Ohio and Iowa needs to have a starting quarterback emerge from the tandem of Ricky Stanzi and Jake Christensen. Northwestern comes in confident, and with more veterans on both sides of the ball.
PREDICTION: Northwestern 23, Iowa 17