Saturday, August 30, 2008

CFI RANKINGS: #1 OHIO ST. BUCKEYES

2007 RECORD: 11-2; BIG TEN: 7-1
Lost BCS Championship Game vs. LSU 38-24
LOCATION: Columbus, Ohio
STADIUM: Ohio Stadium (102,329)
HEAD COACH: Jim Tressel
OVERALL: 208-73-2 (22 seasons)
AT OHIO ST.: 73-16 (7 seasons)

The last two seasons Jim Tressel has led his Buckeyes all the way to the BCS Championship game, only to be thrashed by an SEC team each time. Several players seriously considered declaring for the NFL draft, going so far as to send their names to the NFL for evaluation. Ultimately, only Vernon Gholston made the jump. Whether they didn’t like their grade or the call of a potential National Championship was too strong to pass up, the return of several key senior starters makes OSU the team to beat.

WHEN THE BUCKS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Jim Bollman (8th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 9
KEY LOSSES: Kirk Barton

Lost in last season’s run was the outstanding job by signal caller Todd Boeckman. He was taking over a team that had lost in the BCS Championship game the previous season and for Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith. Boeckman rallied the troops and brought them to the brink of a national championship. He has a good arm and is a better athlete than he’s given credit for. Eight Buckeyes caught 10 or more passes a year ago and all eight are back, led by senior Brian Robiskie. The son of a coach, Robiskie runs crisp routes, has reliable hands, and plays faster than his 40-time. Four of five blockers return along the line, led by senior LT Alex Boone. He possesses the size and mobility to protect the QB and lead the way in the rushing attack, which leads us to the focal point of Ohio St.’s offensive attack. Junior TB Chris “Beanie” Wells tops several Heisman lists and depending on how many touches he receives, Wells could make a run at 2,000 yards. The fact that legendary Buckeye Archie Griffin would even mention Beanie’s name in the same breath as Jim Brown’s tells you all you need to know about this tailback.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) QB RB Chris Wells (JR), 2) OT Alex Boone (SR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Jim Heacock (4th Season/13th at OSU)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 9
KEY LOSSES: Vernon Gholston, Larry Grant

The two players that surprised the NFL the most by returning were MIKE James Laurinaitis and cover corner Malcolm Jenkins—a duo that many had slotted as first round picks. Their time will come, but not before they try to capture a third straight Big Ten title. Laurinaitis is a speedy playmaker who can do it all—stop the run, get after the quarterback, and drop into coverage. Not too far behind is fellow senior Marcus Freeman, who possesses excellent size and speed. He may be overshadowed, but Freeman is one of the top linebackers in the Big Ten, if not the country. Jenkins leads a stellar and experienced secondary. The senior corner can lock people down or drop into a zone and read the QBs eyes. He is a solid tackler and can play some safety if need be. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue with returning starters Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell manning the safety positions. Keep an eye on sophomore Chimdi Chekwa, the next in the line of outstanding Buckeye corners. Up front, they will miss Gholston’s pass-rushing ability, but may have the answer in Lawrence Wilson if the senior can return to 100 percent. The top talent along the line is sophomore end Cameron Heyward, who is both powerful and quick—another star in the making.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) CB Malcolm Jenkins (SR), 2) LB James Laurinaitis (SR)

THE SCHEDULE


With the Big Ten down, many view the Buckeyes as having a one-game season. Go into the Coliseum and beat the USC Trojans on their field and OSU can punch their ticket to a third straight title appearance. Is it that simple? Of course not. Is that their biggest game of the year? You can bet your bottom dollar. In the Big Ten they still have to play Wisconsin, Penn St., Illinois and Michigan, all of whom are ranked, thank you very much. Illinois knocked them off last season in Columbus and Madison is never an easy place to go to. In 2003, No. 23 Wisconsin knocked off the No. 3 ranked Buckeyes—the two schools have not squared off the last two seasons. Another potential road bump is a trip to East Lansing to take on an improved Spartans squad.

PIVOTAL POINT

The Regular Season: Yes, this is the part of the schedule that the Buckeyes have conquered in each of the past two seasons. However, any athlete will tell you one of the most difficult things to do is understand that you do not start where you left off the previous year, especially when you’ve come so close to reaching the pinnacle. Ohio St. did exactly that last season…can they do it again? James Laurinaitis leads a group of players who dabbled with the idea of jumping to the NFL, but ultimately decided to return to Columbus. The Butkus and Bednarik Award winner can say that they did not return just to finish the job, but winning the title has to be on their minds. They have the team to it, as long as they follow the coach’s cliché and take it one game at a time.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

It can only be about the title for the Buckeyes this season—there are no more moral victories. They return nine starters on both sides of the ball from a team that made the BCS Championship for a second straight season. It is time to get out there again and, this time, finish the job. In “Beanie” Wells they have a difference maker who can elevate an already great team to even higher levels. Expect Boeckman to be better in his second year as starter and their defense to be even more dominant. This is the year Tressel claims his second national title.

Photo Credit: Collegiate Images

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

CFI RANKINGS: #4 AUBURN TIGERS

2007 RECORD: 9-4; SEC: 5-3
Won Chik-fil-A Bowl vs. Clemson 23-20 (OT)
LOCATION: Auburn, Alabama
STADIUM: Jordan-Hare Stadium (87,451)
HEAD COACH: Tommy Tuberville
OVERALL: 105-53 (13 seasons)
AT AUBURN: 80-33 (9 seasons)

Auburn struggled early on last year, losing at home to both South Florida and Mississippi St. to start the season 1-2. A new offensive line, which featured three freshmen starters, and a lack of productivity at quarterback made a quick start nearly impossible. Eventually, they got it together behind their defense to win tough road battles at Florida and Arkansas, but trips to Baton Rouge and Athens prevented them from reaching ten wins…a total that is a minimum for the 2008 season.

WHEN THE TIGERS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Tony Franklin (1st Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 8
KEY LOSSES: Brandon Cox, Carl Stewart

There is nothing like bringing back five starters along the offensive line, especially when they are all talented. LT Lee Ziemba made 13 starts last season as a true freshman and senior OG Tyronne Green is ready to break out in his final season in Auburn. The offense will be better for some of the struggles from a year ago. They are going to the spread offense, but expect the Tigers to run all over their opponents. Senior TB Brad Lester is back and provides the shiftiness in the backfield they missed early on last season. Junior Ben Tate is more of a classic between the tackles power runner. The depth doesn’t stop there, as Tristan Davis probably gives them the best combo of size/speed and Mario Fannin, who will be lining up wide most of the time, may be their most physically impressive offensive player. They are not quite as well stocked at receiver, but should be fine as long as they get improved quarterback play, which leads us to the battle between Kodi Burns and Chris Todd. Burns was the difference maker in their bowl victory over Clemson, the first time Auburn unveiled OC Tony Franklin’s offense. He is the better runner, while Todd is more of a pure passer who played in Franklin’s system in high school.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) OT Lee Ziemba (SO), 2) OT Ryan Pugh (SO)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Paul Rhodes (1st Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 7
KEY LOSSES: Quintin Groves, Pat Sims, Patrick Lee, Jonathan Wilhite, Josh Thompson, Eric Brock

Will Muschamp, the DC, was a big loss. However, Paul Rhodes’ defense at Pittsburgh was actually ranked higher than the bunch at Auburn last season. They must replace a couple of productive players along the defensive line, but return two of the better lineman in the SEC with Sen’Derrick Marks moving back to defensive tackle and DE Antonio Coleman coming off the edge. Expect both to be forces penetrating into the offensive backfield. What the defense could use is a full season from talented junior MIKE Tray Blackmon, who can cover ground sideline-to-sideline, but has trouble staying on the field. They have three OLBs who expect to contribute, with sophomore Craig Stevens the most intriguing after making seven starts as a freshman. They must replace Patrick Lee, but junior CB Jerraud Powers appears ready to be the number one guy—Powers matched Lee pick-for-pick and he was among the leading tacklers a year ago. They are set at safety, with sophomores Zac Etheridge and Mike McNeil ready to make their presence felt in the SEC.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) DL Sen’Derrick Marks (JR), 2) DE Antonio Coleman (JR)

THE SCHEDULE


Location, location, location…Auburn doesn’t have many creampuffs on the docket, but their schedule plays to the Tigers’ advantage. After they open up SEC play with an early trip to Starkville to take some measure of revenge on Mississippi St (MSU knocked them off in week three, last season), Auburn plays host to LSU. Odds are that game will decide who represents the SEC West in the conference championship game. Not only does LSU come to Jordan-Hare stadium but so do East rivals Tennessee and Georgia. Other than Mississippi St., they do not face a tough road test in conference play until they close out the year with a trip to Tuscaloosa. They do travel to Morgantown in late October and a win over West Virginia could make these Tigers, players in the BCS title chase.

PIVOTAL POINT

Adjustments: Auburn has experienced players returning at every position, except for quarterback. The signal caller could very well be the pivotal point, but they appear to have a couple a solid options and that position should work out just fine. Something the entire team will have to do is adjust to new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Tony Franklin orchestrated an explosive offense at Troy before coming over to coach the Auburn offense in the Chik-fil-A Bowl. Rhodes’ defense with the Pitt Panthers was among the best in the nation and he will have more talent to play with, if they adjust to his coaching style. The adjustments will be made. The question is—how long will take?

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

The Auburn Tigers have alternated seasons reaching double digits in wins since Tommy Tuberville’s status as headman was put into question. In 2004, they went undefeated on their way to 13 wins, won nine games in 2005, reached 11 wins in 2006 and posted “only” nine wins again last season. It is an even year…so you know that means. The Tigers will battle LSU for the West and are among the favorites for the SEC. Their schedule isn’t brutal for an SEC program, making the Tigers National Title sleepers.

Photo Credit: Todd J. Van Emst (Auburn University Athletic Dept. Photographer)

Monday, August 25, 2008

CFI RANKINGS: #5 USC TROJANS

2007 RECORD: 11-2; PAC-10: 7-2
Won Rose Bowl vs. Illinois 48-17
LOCATION: Los Angeles, California
STADIUM: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (92,000)
HEAD COACH: Pete Carroll
OVERALL: 76-14 (7 seasons)
AT USC: 76-14 (7 seasons)

USC won the Pac-10 and reached 11 wins—the sixth consecutive year they have reached those benchmarks. The Men of Troy finished the season third in the final AP Poll which was their, you guessed it, sixth straight top four finish in the AP Poll. So in other words…they had an average season by Pete Carroll’s standards. What does this year have in store? No team lost as much as talent as the Trojans: they had two players selected in the top ten, four in the first round, seven on day one and ten in total. Yet, the expectations are for more of the same—at the very least.

WHEN THE MEN OF TROY HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Steve Sarkisian (2nd Season/4th at USC)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 4
KEY LOSSES: John David Booty, Chauncey Washington, Sam Baker, Chilo Rachal, Fred Davis, Drew Radovich

Everyone knows about the stockpile of four- and five-star recruits USC has on this side of the ball, especially in the backfield. Stepping in at quarterback is Mark Sanchez, a strong-armed signal caller who beat out a pair of highly-touted QBs in Mitch Mustain and Aaron Corp. Sanchez’s status for the opener remains up in the air, but once healthy he will be the man leading the way. When Sanchez does return, he will have a plethora of talent to work with. Wide receivers Vidal Hazelton, Patrick Turner, Ronald Johnson, David Ausberry and Damian Williams all have size and they can all run, which also sounds a little like their backfield. If speedy sophomore Joe McKnight is the next Reggie Bush with his array of moves in the open field and explosive running ability, then junior Stafon Johnson is the LenDale White, more of a power back who pounds away at defenders. C. J. Gable was the starter last season before his injury and at FB they have Stanley Havili, one of the nation’s most underrated players. The biggest question mark on the offensive side of the ball is the O-Line, where they have one of the least experienced lines in all of college football. That can hinder any offense, even Pete Carroll’s.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) RB Joe McKnight (SO), 2) RB Stafon Johnson (JR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Nick Holt (3rd Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 7
KEY LOSSES: Sedrick Ellis, Lawrence Jackson, Keith Rivers, Terrell Thomas, Thomas Williams

As talented as their offense is, the defense is where the Men of Troy are most gifted. Their linebacking crew is likely the best in the nation—MIKE Rey Maualuga could be the best player in the country regardless of position, with amazing size and speed for a linebacker. Flanking him is Brian Cushing, who has as much potential as Maualuga, with the ability to be a tremendous pass rusher. Their safeties are among the best, if not the best in the nation—both Kevin Ellison and Taylor Mays can run, and with Ellison checking in at 225 pounds and Mays 230 pounds, the duo is bigger than many linebackers. The Trojans must replace first round picks Sedrick Ellis and Lawrence Jackson, but appear to have done just that with senior DT Fili Moala and sophomore DE Everson Griffen, who looked every bit the man as a true freshman a year ago. Replacing Ellis’ penetrating skills will not be easy. They also could be somewhat vulnerable at corner.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) MLB Rey Maualuga (SR), 2) OLB Brian Cushing (SR)

THE SCHEDULE


They will play as big of a game as one can in September when they host the Ohio St. Buckeyes. The winner will take the early lead in the race to make the BCS Championship game, which is what the Trojans are playing for every season. They do benefit from the fact the Buckeye’s come to the Coliseum, as do the Trojans’ top three Pac-10 challengers Arizona St., California and Oregon. Their first five games could dictate whether or not they will compete for a national championship this season. Oregon, ASU and OSU all stop by for early visits while the Trojans make trips to Virginia and Oregon St.—all five were bowl teams in 2007. Of course, it’s not always the tough ones that get the Men of Troy—last season they lost to 41-point underdog Stanford, and two years ago they lost to unranked foes Oregon St and UCLA (with three wins over ranked opponents in between).

PIVOTAL POINT

Potential = Production: Here is the list of five-star recruits among the offensive skills positions (according to Rivals.com): QB Mark Sanchez, WR Patrick Turner, RB Joe McKnight, RB Allen Bradford, RB C.J. Gable, RB Stafon Johnson, RB Marc Tyler, WR Vidal Hazelton and WR Ronald Johnson. Wideouts David Ausberry and Damian Williams, and tight ends Anthony McCoy and Blake Ayles are only four-star recruits. That is a lot of talent, unmatched by anyone. However, Sanchez has thrown seven touchdown passes and six interceptions in his career, none of the backs has rush for as much as 700 yards in a season, and no receiver has had as many as 600 receiving yards in a season. The offensive line doesn’t have much more of a resume, with senior Jeff Byers the only one with more than three career starts entering 2008. Voters (present company included) are buying the Trojans on spec.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

The Trojans continue to win at high level…just not as high as the days of Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and LenDale White. It is an unfair standard, but it is their standard. A seventh straight Pac-10 title, 11-win season, BCS Bowl appearance and maybe even a top four finish should be in the offing. However a third national championship for coach Carroll to add to the mantel might be out of reach for a third straight season. But raw talent isn’t the issue and if they can hold off the Buckeyes in game two, the Men of Troy could win it all.

Photo Credit: Sam Haythorn (Ray Maualuga), Chris McGuire (Patrick Turner)

Thursday, August 21, 2008

CFI RANKINGS: #10 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

2007 RECORD: 9-4; BIG TEN: 6-2
Lost Rose Bowl vs. USC 49-17
LOCATION: Champaign, Illinois
STADIUM: Memorial Stadium (65,000)
HEAD COACH: Ron Zook
OVERALL: 36-37 (6 seasons)
AT ILLINOIS: 13-23 (3 seasons)

We knew Ron Zook could recruit—see the 2006 BCS Champion Florida Gators—but last season Zook showed us that he can in fact coach a little too. When he arrived in Champaign, the Illini were coming off back-to-back losing seasons in which they combined to win four games (19 losses). It wasn’t a quick turnaround for the Zooker—he won four games in his first two seasons (19 losses)—but quietly he was building the foundation. Last year Illinois broke through, not only qualifying for a bowl, but the Rose Bowl. They won nine games which, if you do your math right, is one more than the previous four seasons combined.

WHEN THE ILLINI HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Mike Locksley (4th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 7
KEY LOSSES: Rashad Mendenhall, Martin O’Donnell, Akim Millington, Jacob Willis

Rashad Mendenhall is a big loss, but don’t shed too many tears for the Illini’s rushing attack. They return three-fifths of their offensive line and in Juice Williams they have one of the nation’s top running quarterbacks. Williams has a thick lower body which allows him to use his power as well as his athleticism to break tackles. Williams also does not run simply to pad his numbers, but when the team needs him the most—his yards count. Replacing Mendenhall will likely fall to more than one man. Senior RB Daniel Dufrens showed glimpses of his breakaway ability in backup duty. Freshmen Mikel LeShoure, Troy Pollard and Jason Ford will get their chances, with LeShoure packing a big punch at 240 pounds. Williams is still a work in progress as a passer, but the arm strength and potential are there. Sophomore WR Arrelious Benn was as good as advertised and should even better in year number two as a starter now that he is completely healthy. Jeff Cumberland has potential and was underutilized last season.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) WR Arrelious Benn (SO), 2) TE/WR Jeff Cumberland (JR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

CO-DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Dan Disch (2nd Season/4th at Illinois)
CO-DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Curt Mallory (2nd Season/4th at Illinois)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 6
KEY LOSSES: J Leman, Antonio Steele, Justin Harrison, Kevin Mitchell, Justin Sanders

Up front, none of their players would be described as spectacular, but they have an excellent rotation at defensive end, led by seniors Will Davis and Derek Walker sharing time with junior Doug Pilcher. Davis is their top pass rusher, with Pilcher providing some big plays off the bench. In the interior, senior DT David Lindquist is their top run stuffer. The back seven features two of the most physically gifted and talented defenders in the nation in junior CB Vontae Davis and sophomore LB Martez Wilson. Davis is further ahead of the curve with two years of experience as a starter, while Wilson is more of a raw talent still learning the ropes. Both are explosive and potential difference makers. Leading the group in the huddle will be senior Brit Miller, who slides over from OLB to MIKE, taking the place of J Leman. They have talent at safety, but they are unproven. Whether it be at safety or sprinkled in the front seven, expect an influx of young talent on the defensive side of the ball.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) CB Vontae Davis (JR), 2) LB Martez Wilson (SO)

THE SCHEDULE


The Illini have a chance to show the college football world that last season was not a fluke when they take on “Arch” rival Missouri to kick off the season. Last season neither team was ranked to start the year…this time around, both are. One thing is for sure—if they are to reach nine wins again, the Illini will have to earn it. They must visit Penn St., Michigan and Wisconsin, with their trips to Happy Valley and Ann Arbor kicking off their conference schedule. That’s four foes in the preseason Coaches Poll before the calendar turns to November. In the season’s final month, they finally play a ranked opponent in the friendly confines as the Ohio St. Buckeyes make a visit.

PIVOTAL POINT


A more well-rounded Juice: Williams has been receiving high praise for his play in camp and is coming off a scrimmage in which he completed 16-of-25 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns (no interceptions). He can do it, he’s done it before, he just needs to do it on a more consistent bases. Against the No. 1 ranked Ohio St. Buckeyes, Williams threw four touchdown passes and no interceptions, handing the Buckeyes their lone regular season loss. However, in the Illini’s other 12 games, his TD-INT ratio was 9-12, which is simply unacceptable. His completion percentage of 57.3 also will not cut it if Illinois is to take the next step.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS


The Illini may have arrived a bit ahead of schedule last season. Some might even say they were exposed by the Men of Troy in the Rose Bowl…but not so fast my friends. Although the Illini may not improve upon their 9 wins from last season, there's no reason to think they can't at least match it. With three tough tests in their first five games, the learning curve is steep, but no one can deny the playmakers are in place. Illinois is a sleeper in the Big Ten.

Photo Credit: University of Illinois

CFI RANKINGS: #11 WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

2007 RECORD: 11-2; ACC: 5-2
Won Fiesta Bowl vs. Oklahoma 48-28
LOCATION: Morgantown, West Virginia
STADIUM: Mountaineer Field (60,000)
HEAD COACH: Bill Stewart
OVERALL: 9-25 (3 seasons)
AT WEST VIRGINIA: 1-0 (0 seasons)

WVU enters the season having won 11 games for three straight years, including two Big East Championships and a pair of BCS upsets—over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Not only have they overcome traditional powers from the big bad SEC and the Big 12, but doubters from sea to shining sea as well. Now they must conquer what may be their biggest challenge—replacing Rich Rodriguez, the man who brought WVU to the mountaintop.

WHEN THE MOUNTAINEERS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Jeff Mullen (1st Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 8
KEY LOSSES: Steve Slaton, Owen Schmitt, Darius Reynaud

The architect of WVU’s spread offense may be gone, but the Mountaineer faithful remain calmly in their seats because the captain of their ship returns. It’s no coincidence that the Mountaineers’ run has coincided with Pat White’s tenure as quarterback. White may be the most dynamic player with the football in his hands, regardless of position. When he is on the field, the Mountaineers are capable of wracking up points against any defense in the nation. Making this backfield a dynamic duo is sophomore TB Noel Devine, an absolute blur in the open field. Devine figures to put up monster numbers, however how many times can the 170-pounder carry the pigskin? While the focus is on speed, the Mountaineer playmakers will benefit from a stellar offensive line, which features All-Big East candidates OT Ryan Stancheck and OG Greg Isdaner. White has improved his skills as a passer, but they will have to replace Darius Reynaud who caught 44 percent of White’s completions and 86 percent of his touchdown passes. Don’t be surprised if Mr. White catches a touchdown pass or two with Jarrett Brown triggering the offense sometime this season.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) QB Pate White (SR), 2) RB Noel Devine (SO)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Jeff Casteel (7th Season/8th at West Virginia)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 7
KEY LOSSES: Marc Magro, Ryan Mundy, Eric Wicks, Antonio Lewis, Johnny Dingle, Keilen Dykes

They return three players who can hit and stop the run in a pair of senior backers, MIKE Reed Williams and SAM Mortty Ivy, and junior Bandit Quinton Andrews. Williams and Andrews were their top two tacklers last season, but they must replace eight of their top 11 tacklers from a year ago. On the defensive line, the player they need to step up the most is sophomore DT Scooter Berry. Andrews is the lone returning starter in a secondary that features five players in West Virginia’s base defense. The troika of Ryan Mundy, Eric Wicks and Antonio Lewis has moved on—each had three interceptions while no other Mountaineer posted even two in 2007. Their pass rush is also depleted with their top two sackers Johnny Dingle (9 sacks) and Marc Magro (6 sacks) having moved on as well. Ivy did have six sacks, but Andrews’ 1.5 is the second most among the returnees.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) SS Quinton Andrews (JR), 2) DT Scooter Berry (SO)

THE SCHEDULE


The Mountaineers play a couple of intriguing out of conference games on Thursday nights. First they fly out to Boulder in September to take on the Buffs and take a closer look at the Rockies. Then, the Auburn Tigers come to the highlands of West Virginia for a rare late October inter-conference battle between what should be ranked foes. If they get by the SEC West giant, WVU’s national title hopes could come down to their final two games as they make a trip north over the border to face rival Pittsburgh, the club that spoiled their chances last season. If they get past the Panthers, WVU must then overcome South Florida, who has handed them two of their last three losses.

PIVOTAL POINT


Reload: As long as Pat White is in shotgun, they are in win now mode, but is there enough talent for the Mountaineers to simply reload? Steve Slaton led WVU running backs in rushing three years in a row. Reynaud has led the team in receptions the last two years and receiving touchdowns in two of the past three. Their losses on the defensive side of the ball have already been documented. If the Mountaineers are to continue their run of 11 wins and take home another Big East title, they will need several players to step up and make an impact.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

From an individual talent perspective, WVU has not been overly impressive…one only needs to check the last couple of NFL Drafts—it’s not loaded with players from the Mountain State. They have been the ultimate team—better than the sum of their parts—and isn’t that what college football is all about? With so many players gone from last season, the Mountaineers need everyone to play their part more than ever. The base is there with White, Devine and the offensive line, the other pieces will decide whether they reach their peak.

Photo Credit: WVU Sports Communication

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

CFI RANKINGS: #13 TEXAS LONGHORNS

2007 RECORD: 10-3; BIG 12: 5-3
Won Holiday Bowl vs. Arizona St. 52-34
LOCATION: Austin, Texas
STADIUM: Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (93,553)
HEAD COACH: Mack Brown
OVERALL: 189-99-1 (24 seasons)
AT TEXAS: 103-25 (10 seasons)

Under headman Mack Brown, the ‘Horns have won 10 or more games seven straight seasons. However, despite registering double digit wins in 2007, something seemed to be a bit off in Texas, and it’s not just because they lost to Oklahoma and Texas A & M for the first time since 1993—five years before Mack Brown arrived in Austin. It’s the fact that UT was fortunate to pull out wins against Arkansas St., Central Florida and a 5-7 Nebraska team…for some reason, they did not play to their full potential until their bowl victory over No. 12 Arizona St.

WHEN THE HORNS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Greg Davis (11th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 7
KEY LOSSES: Jamaal Charles, Limas Sweed, Jermichael Finley, Nate Jones, Tony Hills, Dallas Griffin

Until more playmakers emerge at the skill positions, the ‘Horns could be hard pressed to match last season’s output of over 37 points per game. It is difficult to replace the likes of WR Limas Sweed, TE Jermichael Finley and RB Jamaal Charles, particularly when Charles and Finley had eligibility remaining. Early departures are not the norm in Austin; a staple of Mack Brown’s success has been keeping star players like Ricky Williams and Roy Williams around for four years. The offensive line returns four starters and if they can play a higher level on a consistent basis, it will go a long way toward bringing the ‘Horns success. They appear to be set at quarterback with junior Colt McCoy, although some viewed his 2007 season as a sophomore slump. That’s somewhat understandable considering his touchdown passes dropped from 29 to 22 and his interceptions jumped from seven to 18. However, as long as all the other pieces fall into place, McCoy should have a bounce back season.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) OT Adam Ulatoski (JR), 2) OG Cedric Dockery (SR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Will Muschamp (1st Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 5
KEY LOSSES: Frank Okam, Marcus Griffin, Scott Derry, Derek Lockey, Robert Killebrew, Brandon Foster, Erick Jackson

They lose a lot of production, but the ‘Horns are not lacking talent. The front seven has as much potential as any in the nation and it is time for highly touted recruits such as DT Lamarr Houston, DE/OLB Sergio Kindle, as well as linebackers Jared Norton and Roddrick Muckelroy to break out. That quartet has star potential. Not to be overlooked, senior ends Brian Orakpo and Aaron Lewis, DT Roy Miller and MIKE Rashad Babino have some ability as well. The secondary has more uncertainty and is coming off a season that saw Texas allow a school record 3,611 passing yards on their way to giving up more than 25 points per game. Keep an eye on junior CB Deon Beasley, a potential lockdown cover corner.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) LB/DE Sergio Kindle (JR), 2) DL Lamarr Houston (JR)

THE SCHEDULE


The out of conference schedule may be tougher than you think. They open up with Florida Atlantic, led by head coach Howard Schnellenberger and strong-armed signal caller Rusty Smith. The upstarts from the Sunshine State are coming to Austin to get a “W” and nothing less. UT also plays host to the new look Arkansas Razorbacks, who shocked the ‘Horns the last time they visited (38-28 in 2003). Gone are Nebraska, Kansas St. and Iowa St. (13-33 combined in ’07), replaced by Missouri, Kansas and Colorado (30-10 combined in ’07)—so the conference schedule is more challenging as well. Last but not least, they take on the Sooners in the second Saturday in October—a game that usually decides the Big 12 South—as well as instate rivals A & M on Thanksgiving night. In other words, reaching 10 wins again won’t be easy.

PIVOTAL POINT

Fresh Faces: Most of the coaching staff has been at Texas for at least three seasons. Even more impressive is the fact that five coaches, including OC Greg Davis, are going into their 11th season in Austin under Mack Brown—the Longhorns are a better team because of that continuity. The two new faces are Will Muschamp and Major Applewhite, a young old face if there ever was one. Muschamp has a championship pedigree, having led the nation’s best defense at LSU when the Tigers won a national title in 2003. He’s spent the last two seasons leading one of the nation’s best defenses at Auburn. How much of difference will he make with the likes of Kindle, Norton and Muckelroy? Muschamp coaches the linebackers so it could be significant. Applewhite is an assistant HC and running backs coach, so he’ll be very much involved in the search to replace Charles. While the continuity they have is important, the infusion of new blood could be just what the doctor ordered.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS


Most people look at the Longhorns and are a bit confused: Are they a highly touted but underachieving bunch, or a talented group that is ready to blossom? Time will tell. The horses are there, but the competition is tough—the Big 12 is no longer a two-horse race between UT and OU. They should jump out of the gates strong, but how they perform midway through the season will decide what they will be playing for down the stretch. Texas could end up winning the Big 12 this season, but there are too many question marks heading into the season to make them the favorite.

Photo Credit: UT Photography

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

CFI RANKINGS: #15 TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

2007 RECORD: 9-4; BIG 12: 4-4
Won Gator Bowl vs. Virginia 31-28
LOCATION: Lubbock, Texas
STADIUM: Jones AT & T Stadium (52,882)
HEAD COACH: Mike Leach
OVERALL: 65-37 (8 seasons)
AT TECH: 65-37 (8 seasons)

Just over 20 minutes into their contest with the No. 4 ranked Oklahoma Sooners, the Red Raiders led 27-7. Yes, OU’s star quarterback Sam Bradford was out of the game after three passes, but Tech simply looked faster than the Sooners—something you don’t often say about teams that take on Bob Stoops’ gang from Norman. That win, as much as their plethora of returning starters, is why there is optimism about bigger and better things this season in Lubbock.

WHEN THE RED RAIDERS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Mike Leach (9th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 10
KEY LOSSES: Danny Amendola

Have we become so numb to the numbers that Tech quarterbacks put up that no one even blinks an eye at Graham Harrell airing it out for 5,705 yards and 48 touchdowns? Whatever the system, opponents aren’t just giving away free yards and points. He is more skilled than his predecessors and is cool under pressure with a knack for leading a comeback. At his disposal he will have record-setting sophomore Michael Crabtree--one of the nation’s most physically gifted receivers--as well as Eric Morris, the perfect slot man who knows how to find openings in the middle of the field and the end zone. There is no need to worry about Harrell’s protection either as all five of his offensive linemen return, led by left guard Luis Vasquez, a first team All-Big 12 performer. One aspect of the offense they can improve upon is their running game. Sophomore Aaron Crawford and senior Shannon Woods both return, but neither has been very impressive to this point.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) WR Michael Crabtree (SO), 2) OG Luis Vasquez (SR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Ruffin McNeill (2nd Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 8
KEY LOSSES: Joe Garcia, Paul Williams, Chris Parker

If the Red Raiders defense ever matches the offense…watch out. They had better success in the second half of the season after DC Ruffin McNeill took over the reins…another reason for confidence in Red Raider land. Six out of the front seven return, including the entire defensive line. Tackles Colby Whitlock and Rajon Henley are solid against the run, but as a group the front four is undersized. Just a sophomore, Whitlock is the most talented of the bunch. A wild card is incoming JC transfer DE McKinner Dixon, who was a freshman All-American in Lubbock back in 2005. At linebacker, there are high hopes for junior OLB Marlon Williams, who came on strong in ’07, as well as sophomore MIKE Brian Duncan who makes the move from the outside. In the secondary, third-year starter FS Darcel McBath leads the way. Corner Jamar Wall was their top interceptor in 2007.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) LB Brian Duncan (SO), 2) FS Darcel McBath (SR)

THE SCHEDULE


As usual, the Red Raiders do not take on any “Big Six” out of conference foes, although a trip to Nevada to take on the Wolf Pack and their “Pistol” attack could pose a rare early season challenge. In conference play, they host Oklahoma St. and Texas who combined to hang 108 points on Tech’s defense in a pair of Red Raider defeats. However, Tech would be best served avoiding thoughts of payback and concentrating instead on being road warriors. They were 1-3 away from home in Big 12 play in 2007 and this season they make trips to College Station, Manhattan, Lawrence and Norman.

PIVOTAL POINT

Defense: What else could it be? In three of their four losses, Tech scored 26 points or better, including two games of over 40 points. When you put up 43 points on Texas in Austin and 45 on Oklahoma St. in Stillwater…it should be enough to come home victorious, but it wasn’t and their 59-43 loss to the ‘Horns came with DC Ruffin McNeill running the show. In their nine wins last season, Tech allowed an average of 17.4 points per game, but in their four losses that number nearly triples to 44 points per game. They also need to make more big plays—their ten interceptions were the third fewest in the conference, which factored into their minus-5 turnover ration (ninth in the Big 12).

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

Prior to their win over Oklahoma, Tech had dropped eight straight against ranked opponents, dating back to their Bowl win over No. 9 Cal in 2004. So the question Tech will answer this year is, “Do they belong with the big boys”? It would be a surprise if they overtook the Sooners to represent the Big 12 South in the conference championship game, but their first double digit win season since 1976 is not out of the realm of possibility.

Photo Credit: Texas Tech Athletics/Norvelle Kennedy

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

CFI RANKINGS: #18 WISCONSIN BADGERS

2007 RECORD: 9-4; BIG TEN: 5-3
Lost Outback Bowl vs. Tennessee 21-17
LOCATION: Madison, Wisconsin
STADIUM: Camp Randall Stadium (80,321)
HEAD COACH: Bret Bielema
OVERALL: 21-5 (2 seasons)
AT WISCONSIN: 21-5 (2 seasons)

Is the talent there for the Badgers to be ranked higher…maybe even challenge for a top ten spot? Sure. However, let’s not forget they opened the 2007 season ranked No. 7 in both polls and finished the year 21st in the Coaches Poll and 24th in the AP Poll. In five games against teams that finished last year ranked, Wisconsin was 1-4, with the lone win coming at home against a Michigan club that was sans Mike Hart and saw Chad Henne attempt a mere five passes (true freshman Ryan Mallett was 11-of-36 passing).

WHEN THE BADGERS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Paul Chryst (4th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 9
KEY LOSSES: Tyler Donavan, Luke Swan, Paul Hubbard, Lance Smith (Dismissed)

While we’ve seen more three wide receiver sets under OC Paul Chryst, the Badgers aren’t going to the spread as many Big Ten stalwarts have—power football is still how their bread is buttered. Even without Lance Smith, Wisky is loaded in the backfield led by junior big back P.J. Hill. Soph Zach Brown provides a little more shiftiness, while freshman John Clay is yet another 230 pound bruiser. Whoever is toting the rock, they would be wise to follow senior FB Chris Pressley. The biggest question is at quarterback, where Allan Evridge is expected to take over. He will have a pair of playmakers at his disposal in Travis Beckum—the most explosive tight end in the country—and sophomore WR Kyle Jefferson. The line is big and talented (what else is new?), but they need to be more consistent than they were a year ago.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) TE Travis Beckum (SR), 2) OG Kraig Ubrik (SR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Dave Doeren (3rd Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 9
KEY LOSSES: Jack Ikegwuonu, Nick Hayden

This unit is solid, but not spectacular. DE Matt Shaughnessy (broken leg in the spring) leads the front four, FS Shane Carter recorded seven interceptions, and OLB Jonathan Casillas is their leading tackler. Other than Carter, there really isn’t a playmaker on this unit—no other player had more than one interception and DE Kirk DeCremer led the club in sacks as a freshman with 5.5. If players like DT Jason Chapman, LB DeAndry Levy and CB Allen Langford (if healthy) step up their game as seniors, this can be an improved unit. CB Jack Ikegwuonu will be difficult to replace and corner might be their most vulnerable position. Freshman corner Mario Goins and sophomore safety Jay Valai are two x-factors in the secondary.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) DE Matt Shaughnessy (SR), 2) DE Kirk DeCremer (SO)

THE SCHEDULE


Upset alert: September 13…not only do the Badgers play Fresno St., they’re making the trip out to Cali and two weeks later, they open up the Big Ten schedule at Ann Arbor. Last season, Wisconsin struggled away from Camp Randall—losing at Penn St., Illinois and Ohio St. by an average margin of 19 points and dropping a neutral site game to Tennessee. Their only road wins came at UNLV (2-10) and at Minnesota (1-11), so the Badgers shouldn’t put a “W” next to those games at Michigan St., Indiana and Iowa just yet.

PIVOTAL POINT

Linebackers: Quarterback is the obvious choice here, but linebacker should be a team strength…but is it? Casillas’ overall tackles went up, but he had 3.5 fewer tackles for a loss as a junior with no interceptions and just one PD (1 INT & 6 PDs in 2006). OLB DeAndre Levy’s sack total was cut in half, from six to three. Neither made the progress expected in their second year as a starter. At middle linebacker, junior Elijah Hodge was so underwhelming that he is currently working as the third sting MIKE in camp. This group is a microcosm for the team…good, but not as good as advertised.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

Not many coaches have replaced a legend as seamlessly as Coach Bielema has at Wisconsin (21 wins in his first two seasons). However, after shocking the nation with 12 wins in 2006, this group failed to live up to expectations in 2007. They are a good, solid team, but could disappoint again if the bar is set too high. If they are to creep back into the top 10 or reach double digits in victories, Evridge (or whoever plays quarterback) will have to ensure they have a balanced offense.

Credit: Collegiate Images

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

CFI RANKINGS: #19 CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

2007 RECORD: 7-6; PAC-10: 3-6
Won Armed Forces Bowl vs. Air Force 42-36
LOCATION: Berkley, California
STADIUM: Memorial Stadium (72,516)
HEAD COACH: Jeff Tedford
OVERALL: 50-26 (6 seasons)
AT CAL: 50-26 (6 seasons)

After trailing Oregon St. by ten points with three minutes remaining in the contest, the Golden Bears—led by freshman QB Mike Riley—were poised to send the game into overtime. But something happened on the way to the kill-the-clock-spike and a potential 6-0 start—with all of their time outs exhausted, Riley tried to scramble. Not only did the clock run out on the game, but seemingly the season. Cal was No. 2 in the country heading into that game and proceeded to lose six of its last seven to end the regular season.

WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Frank Cignetti (1st Season)/Jim Michalczik (7th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 4
KEY LOSSES: DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins, Justin Forsett, Craig Stevens, Robert Jordan, Mike Gibson, James Montgomery (Left School)

Senior signal caller Nate Longshore started their bowl victory against Air Force, but he left the contest with Cal trailing 21-0. It was Riley who led the comeback and ensured a sixth straight winning season under headman Jeff Tedford. Who will get the most reps this season? It’s anyone’s guess, but if Cal sticks to one starter, they should be fine. Their major concerns lie at the skill positions where they must replace their top five pass catchers and their leading rusher from a year ago. The receiving corps is young, but very talented, while sophomore Jahvid Best looks to be a special player. Making everyone’s life easier will be one of the Pac-10’s better O-Lines led by C Alex Mack—Cal has allowed a mere 24 total sacks the last two seasons and their backs consistently average over five yards per carry.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) C Alex Mack (SR), 2) TB Jahvid Best (SO)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Bob Gregory (7th Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 8
KEY LOSSES: Thomas DeCoud, Brandon Hampton, Justin Moye

Cal has been known as an offensive team under Tedford, but this might be the season the defense leads the way, particularly early on. The linebacking corps returns three senior starters in Worrell Williams, Anthony Felder and Zack Follett, and all three can play. The secondary loses leading tackler Thomas DeCoud but returns two starters, CB Syd’Quan Thompson and FS Bernard Hicks, and has quality depth. The key is the defensive line, which was not up to par last season. If senior DE Rulon Davis stays healthy and sophomore DT Derrick Hill progresses as expected, this will be a far more productive unit, one that should have a trickle-down effect on the rest of the defense.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) LB Worrell Williams (SR), 2) LB Anthony Felder (SR)

THE SCHEDULE


The Bears don’t have any gimmes out of conference. However, they should be able to put home games against Michigan St. and Colorado St., as well as a trip to Maryland, in the “W” column. Their two biggest games are at home, as fellow contenders Oregon and Arizona St. both come to Berkeley giving the Golden Bears an edge in the battle for second place. However, they must do a better job away from home after losing their last four road games of the 2007, including late season defeats at Washington and Stanford (5-13 in Pac-10 play).

PIVOTAL POINT

Quarterback: Make sure you have one quarterback not two, Coach Tedford. Both Longshore and Riley can play, but this is not a situation where one has a unique skill set; there are no “sub packages” here. It is nice to have options, but if they are left open too long this could be a detriment. Coach Tedford needs to pick one quarterback and stick with him. Let’s not forget what the quarterback battle between Sam Keller and Rudy Carpenter did to Arizona St’s season two years ago.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

How quickly everyone forgets. Heading into last season, Cal was ranked No. 12 in both the Coaches and the AP Polls, the highest of any Pac-10 school not named Southern Cal. They rose to No. 2 by week six with a win at Oregon (with Dennis Dixon). Then it all fell apart after Longshore suffered an ankle injury, which plagued him the rest of the way. The Bears will have a productive offense, as they always do under Tedford, and with an improved defense expect a bounce back season in Berkley.

Photo Credit: Collegiate Images

CFI RANKINGS: #20 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

2007 RECORD: 7-6; SEC: 4-4
Won Independence Bowl vs. Colorado 30-24
LOCATION: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
STADIUM: Bryant-Denny Stadium (92,138)
HEAD COACH: Nick Saban
OVERALL: 98-48-1 (12 seasons)
AT ALABAMA: 7-6 (1 season)

The Crimson Tide defeated Colorado in the Independence Bowl and they needed a victory there more than you think. The win not only ended a four-game losing streak that saw them drop from 6-2 to 6-6, it prevented them from posting back-to-back 6-7 seasons and their fourth non-winning season in five. The Tide hasn’t exactly been rolling along. The Tuscaloosa faithful hope year two of the Nick Saban era returns ’Bama to national prominence…a win over Auburn to reclaim the state wouldn’t be bad either.

WHEN THE TIDE HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Jim McElwain (1st Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 8
KEY LOSSES: DJ Hall, Matt Caddell, Keith Brown, Justin Britt

Senior signal caller John Parker Wilson returns with 26 starts under his belt and is the leader in the ‘Bama huddle. What they need from Wilson is consistency—he had six games with multiple touchdowns, but failed to throw any in six others. The Alabama native needs to cut down on the mistakes, make better decisions, and find a way to be more accurate with his passes. He will be throwing to a new starting receiving corps, but could have shiny new toy to play with in true freshman Julio Jones, a potential superstar. Protecting Wilson’s backside is Andre Smith, arguably the top left tackle in the nation. Smith and senior C Antoine Caldwell lead one of the nation’s most experienced lines. While the Tide must replace their top three pass catchers, they return their top five runners, with junior Glenn Coffee and sophomore Terry Grant both primed for breakout seasons. They are deep at tight end with experienced starters Nick Walker and Travis McCall, so expect plenty of two-tight end sets.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) OT Andre Smith (JR), 2) WR Julio Jones (FR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

HEAD DEFENSIVE COACH:
Kevin Steele (2nd Season)
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Kirby Smart (2nd Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 6
KEY LOSSES: Wallace Gilberry, Darren Mustin, Simeon Castille, Marcus Carter, Ezekial Knight

The defense should be better with a year of experience playing in Nick Saban’s three-four attack. Sophomore LB Rolando McLain is a perfect fit at 6’4”/250 pounds with the speed to cover sideline-to-sideline--a nice building block for the troika of Saban, Steele & Smart. They are thin at linebacker however, with Ezekial Knight leaving the team due to a heart ailment, the dismissal of Jimmy Johns (legal issues) and Prince Hall’s suspension. Saban will not hesitate to play youngsters (see McLain & Kareem Jackson) and it appears sophomore noseman Josh Chapman is making a push at the critical position. In the secondary, the Tide must replace two starters but should be among the best in the SEC with sophomore CB Jackson and senior FS Rashad Johnson, a pair of potential all-conference performers.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) LB Rolando McLain (SO), 2) CB Kareem Jackson (SO)

THE SCHEDULE


The Tide play ACC favorite Clemson in Atlanta to open up the year, and a win could jump start the Tide’s season…but a bad loss could plant seeds of doubt. Once they get into SEC action, they’ll find the conference schedule makers did them no favors. While they host the season finale with in-state rival Auburn, three of their four toughest conference games are away from the friendly confines. Saying Baton Rouge, Knoxville and Athens will be unfriendly is an understatement…so much for Southern hospitality. While Georgia is the preseason No. 1 team in the Coaches Poll and Tennessee is the hated border rival, the most buzz will be generated by Saban’s return to Cajun Country.

PIVOTAL POINT

The Defensive Front Seven: Ends Bobby Greenwood and Brandon Deaderick return, but they combined for only three sacks and 7.5 tackles for a loss—not exactly prolific playmakers. Who will replace Wallace Gilberry’s (10 sacks) production? At linebacker, not only did they lose seniors Darren Mustin (80 tackles) and Keith Saunders, but Knight—an emerging force—is also out with his aforementioned medical problem, and who knows what they will get from the talented Hall? They may need some of the recruits to step up as McLain did last season. One thing is for sure—a Nick Saban-led defense should never be counted out. In addition, Kevin Steele is the only returning defensive coordinator in the SEC West—a fact that shouldn’t be overlooked.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS


Something tells me seven wins and an Independence Bowl victory isn’t going to cut it at ‘Bama in year two under Saban…nor should it. Cautious optimism is called for—we saw glimpses of success last season, but the four-game losing streak to end the regular season is still fresh on everyone’s mind. The schedule is tough and with Auburn and LSU in the West, don’t expect an SEC Title just yet. Finishing among the ranked is not an unreachable goal by any means.

Photo Credit: Collegiate Images

Saturday, August 9, 2008

CFI RANKINGS: #22 UTAH UTES

2007 RECORD: 9-4; MOUNTAIN WEST: 5-3
Won Poinsettia Bowl vs. Navy 35-32
LOCATION: Salt Lake City, Utah
STADIUM: Rice-Eccles Stadium (45,017)
HEAD COACH: Kyle Whittingham
OVERALL: 24-14 (3 seasons)
AT UTAH: 24-14 (3 seasons)

Under Coach Whittingham the Utes have steadily improved after starting out 7-5 in the year one AM (After Meyer, Urban). Utah won nine games last year and are on course to reach double digits in victories in 2008. They enter the season unranked and below the radar with in-state rival and Mountain West favorite BYU garnering the non-BCS accolades. I don’t believe Coach Whittingham or his Utes mind at all.

WHEN THE UTES HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Andy Ludwig (4th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 8
KEY LOSSES: Derrick Richards, Brian Hernandez

When healthy, QB Brian Johnson is among the most dangerous dual threat quarterbacks in the nation and, according to reports, the senior is looking pretty good. He suffered a serious knee injury (torn ACL) and a shoulder injury to boot, but looked his best in the bowl game last year and could be close to 100 percent for his senior season. On the ground, after starter Matt Asiata went down for the season in the opener, Darrell Mack, who was scheduled to redshirt, stepped right in and rumbled for 1,200 yards. Both backs return in what should a productive backfield. The Utes return four of five starters along the line and most of their depth, which bodes well for their balanced attack.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) OT Zane Beadles (JR), 2) QB Brian Johnson (SR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR:
Gary Anderson (5th Season/11th at Utah)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 6
KEY LOSSES: Steve Tate, Joe Jiannoni, Martail Burnett, Gabe Long

The Utes know how to stop the pass—opponents managed a meager 50.5 completion rate against them, while Utah picked off 17 passes and allowing just nine scores through the air. They only have to replace one defensive back, SS Steve Tate, and his replacement isn’t too shabby—Joe Dale was the Defensive MVP in the Poinsettia Bowl with 12 tackles and an interception in the game’s final minute. They can also get after the quarterback, as sophomore Paul Kruger (Freshman All-American) and junior Koa Misi (played tackle last year) are ready for bust-out seasons from defensive end. Linebacker could be their one Achilles heel, as they must replace two starters from 2007. However, expect junior Stevenson Sylvester to build on a solid sophomore season.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) FS Robert Johnson (JR), 2) CB Brice McCain (SR)

THE SCHEDULE


The opportunity is there for the Utes to make a big statement with an opening win in the Big House. One thing working in Utah’s favor is that Michigan is breaking in a new system and nine new starters offensively, including a first time starter at quarterback. The negative? This is the house where the legend of Appalachian St. was built…meaning the Wolverines will be ready. They face another BCS test when the Beavers of Oregon St. come to Salt Lake at mid-season. The conference schedule is set up perfectly for the Utes to make a run at a Mountain West title, as both TCU and BYU (in the season finale) visit Rice-Eccles.

PIVOTAL POINT

Brian Johnson: In the nine games that the Texas native started and finished at quarterback last season, the Utes won eight. Johnson finished fourth in the nation in total offense as a true sophomore in 2005 and was being touted as the spread offense prototype with his pass/run abilities (this was pre-Tim Tebow). A knee injury not only cost him the final two games of the 2005 season, but all of 2006. Which quarterback will we see in 2008? When we get that answer, we’ll know if the Utes can repeat the magic of 2004 when they went undefeated and won the Fiesta Bowl.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

Johnson’s strong finish to the 2007 season—20-of-25 for 226 yards and season-highs with 11 carries for 69 yards rushing in the Poinsettia Bowl—and the fact that he’s another year removed from his knee injury, are cause for optimism; he may have his best season yet as a Ute. Everything else is in place: the line, the skill players and a solid defense. Even the schedule—three of their four toughest games are at home—is set up for a 10 or 11 win season. After taking a back seat to BYU the last couple of seasons, look for Utah to take back the state and a Mountain West crown.

Photo Credit:
University of Utah