Big Ten Conference Open Preview: Spoiler Alerts

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

When was this torch officially passed, the one that said, “Oh, we’re really good, but it just doesn’t show up in the records for our teams because they beat each other up in conference play”, from the Big Ten to the SEC? Isn’t it interesting how the Big Ten was ONCE considered so tough near the top that we excused conference losses because the competition was that deep? Contrast to nowadays where pundits dismiss the Big Ten by stating that the teams at the top lose to their rivaled foes because the conference is so weak. Certainly the last few years have been plagued by a lack of national attention (beyond Ohio State), and the only real exception I would argue was 2006 when number one Ohio State hosted and defeated number two Michigan in The Game, essentially knocking the Wolverines out of the National Title game, despite a one-loss Florida sliding in place (of course it didn’t help that Florida eventually went on to dismantle the Buckeyes. But let’s forget that for the moment.).

Nonetheless, we come across a make-or-break weekend right off the bat for the conference elite where only time will tell if this week was tough-versus-tough or meek-versus-meek. In the pre-season I dubbed this the “spoiler alert” weekend where the underdogs have a decent chance of wreaking havoc on the favorites:

Iowa at Penn State: I don’t want to get in the way of the importance of this game early in the season. Although Penn State can’t erase their sole conference loss from last year, they can send a message early and convince doubters that the team has patched up the cracks in their units, namely power rushing and unproven pass defense. Iowa has recovered nicely from the opening day scare against Northern Iowa. As important as the notches in the win column is the development of their offense. Shonn Greene is missed in the backfield thus far (3.8 yards/carry), but the Hawkeyes are still managing to put points on the board (26 points/game). What to watch for: Make no mistake that the best units on the field for both teams will be their defenses. Penn State has given up only 20 points in three games and is yet to surrender a rushing touchdown. The huge question marks, however, is the health of linebackers Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman (Lee is unlikely to play and Bowman is probable). The Hawkeyes have been brilliant stopping aerial attacks, which have only completed 48 percent passing and 5.1 yards/attempt. The big turnover killed Penn State’s chances last year and Iowa looks to be ball-hawking thus far (six interceptions, two fumbles). As this will be defense versus defense, the key to the game will be which offense escapes making the big mistake. Look for the ability of Penn State’s Daryll Clark to be the playmaking quarterback while looking for Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi to be the protector of the ball, limiting big plays by the Nittany Lions’ defense.
Prediction: Home team wins in the rocking Whitehouse. Penn State 24, Iowa 13

Illinois at Ohio State: The injury bug has seemed to nest and multiply within the Champaign community. Quarterback Juice Williams, receiver Arrelious Benn and linebacker Martez Wilson (out for the year) have all lost significant playing time in this young season. Losing Wilson is back-breaking for the defense that has given up a whopping 680 yards passing between Missouri and Illinois St. Against a quality opponent in Missouri, Williams was mediocre with 179 yards and one interception (albeit without Benn for most of the game), and the Illinois State game proves nothing as the team thrived despite Williams’ absence. The week off with a bye certainly helped. For the Buckeyes, they brushed up nicely ripping Toledo with a 38-0 shutout. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor showcased his athletic abilities, finally eclipsing 100 yards rushing. I say finally, because this should be at least a threat for every opponent trying to gameplan against the Buckeyes. What to watch for: The quarterbacks. This is somewhat obvious and a safe call, but the best player on both teams happens to be the guy holding the ball after every snap. I am unsettled by Pryor’s two interceptions last week (he hasn’t had an interception-free game yet this year and is one behind Purdue’s Joey Elliott for forking the ball over to the other team through the air the most in the conference). On the flip-side, Pryor leads the Big Ten in total offense (263 total yards/game). With Williams healthy, the outcome of the game will undoubtedly come down to which athlete does the most damage.
Prediction: Ohio State pitched a shutout last week and has seemed to shaken the cob-webs from their home loss to USC two weeks ago. Illinois is still settling into the season with the discontinuity brought about from injuries.
Ohio State 33, Illinois 21

Notre Dame at Purdue: The Fighting Irish (2-1) march in to West Lafayette after escaping a last second drive by Michigan State last week. Notre Dame looks to be quickly evolving with the loss of wide receiver Michael Floyd on the outside and the addition of a more determined rushing attack lead by Armando Allen. Allen (23-for 115 yards and one touchdown last week) has strung together back-to-back 100 yard rushing games (both against Big Ten foes), something escaping his early career. In fact, the only game he rushed over 73 yards last year was against, well, Purdue and he went bananas (17-for-134 yards, one touchdown). Purdue (1-2) is already reeling after a tough loss to Northern Illinois last week, tallying their second loss in as many weeks. The big alarm here is surrendering 454 total yards, 270 of them on the ground. This also spelled a huge time-of-possession deficit of nearly 2:1 (18:20). What to watch for: Obviously I see this coming down to how well Purdue can stop Allen, who is not 100 percent nursing a sore ankle. Surprisingly I previewed Notre Dame without talking about Jimmy Clausen, but I guess I just did. But I feel that Charlie Weis has decided to balance out his offensive scheme by folding in more action from the backfield. Allen is rushing well and that will set up the play-action for wideout Golden Tate deep or tight end Kyle Rudolph over the top of the biting linebackers. If Purdue loses the time of possession battle again, that will spell disaster for a tiring defense playing against a potent offense like Notre Dame’s. To this end, I also expect Purdue to pound the ball themselves, as they are averaging 210 yards on the ground.
Prediction: Purdue hasn’t shown the defensive prowess to slow down anyone, so I don’t expect much of a change with a visit from the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame 34, Purdue 20

Michigan State at Wisconsin: What to watch for: Wisconsin’s 200 yards rushing per game behind tailbacks Zach Brown and John Clay versus the Spartans' stingy rush defense (87 yards/game, 2.8 yards/carry). If the Badgers stall rushing, fear not, Michigan State’s Achilles’ heel so far has been stopping talented quarterbacks. Can the Badgers’ signal caller Scott Tolzien carry the load if called upon? For Michigan State, their quarterback combination has been successful (eight touchdowns, one interception, converting the most first downs in the conference passing with 44). Also, penalties may come in to play–Michigan state opponents are tops in penalties committed (24 total, 76.7 yards/game) and Wisconsin is ninth in the conference in penalties committed (19 total, 61.7 yards/game)
Prediction: Michigan State 30, Wisconsin 27

Indiana at Michigan: What to watch for: Indiana leads the conference in three categories–kickoff returns (27.9 avergae), turnover margin (plus three) and sacks against (one, for one yard loss). In fact, if there were a sack margin (sacks for – sacks against) Indiana would be tops with a +8 (followed by Michigan State at +7). Defensive ends Jammie Kilrew and Greg Middleton are as good as it gets as a duo off the edge (Can Tate Forcier be more consistent in his crash-reads of one of the ends? This may be a very intriguing individual offense-defense match-up). Michigan’s offensive line is credible, but suffered a big loss with an injury to center David Molk. So the battle in trenches should be the marquee for the match-up in Ann Arbor. If Michigan’s quarterbacks find more time looking up at the sky from ground, the Hoosiers may be able to hang tough. I am tremendously skeptical of that fact considering the team speed and athleticism heavily tilted towards Michigan.
Prediction: Michigan 28, Indiana 10

Minnesota at Northwestern: What to watch for: I was looking forward to this game during the pre-season because of the potential both squads posed heading in to the season. But after disappointing losses last week for both teams, the luster has worn just a bit. Northwestern’s gunslinger Mike Kafka has filled in nicely for the graduated C.J. Bacher, completing 75 percent of his passes for almost 250 yards/game (second in the Big Ten), with a conference leading 164.9 passing efficiency (which includes some statistical combination of blue moons, green diamonds and purple horseshoes). He’s managed to distribute the ball evenly amongst his receiving corps as four wideouts have hauled in at least 10 receptions so far. For the Gophers, they have also celebrated a strong passing attack, although quarterback Adam Weber has again fallen in love with senior receiver Erick Decker (27 receptions, 415 yards, two touchdowns). Will this game be a shootout? I doubt it; I feel that the Gophers are begrudgingly trying to prove they can play smashmouth football by running right at their opponents and failing. (Dead last in the conference with 85.7 yards/game).
Prediction: Northwestern is coming in with a better defense, which will again expose Minnesota’s one-sided offense. Northwestern 17, Minnesota 9

Photos Courtesy of Mark Selders/Penn State Athletic Communications & Michigan State Athletic Communications

Big Ten - Best 1-2 Punch: Defense

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

5. Trey Simmons and Marcus Sherels (Minnesota): They combined as the top two defenders against the pass, tallying a conference-best 24 pass break-ups and 6 interceptions. And they’ll be back next year.

4. Pat Angerer and Amari Spievey (Iowa): Nine interceptions with one returned for a touchdown between the two. OK, not bad. But, they also combined for 166 tackles (101 from Angerer).
3. Aaron Maybin and Navarro Bowman (Penn State): The epitome of playmakers for the Penn State defense. Maybin took first place in sacks with 12, third in tackles-for-loss (19) and tied for third in the Big Ten with three forced fumbles. Navarro Bowman complemented him from the linebacker position by adding 98 tackles (seventh best in the Big Ten) with 11.5 of them tackles-for-loss.

2. James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman (Ohio State): True ball-hawks. The two linebackers quite simply terrorized defenses (OK, after the USC game), accumulating 7.5 sacks and 197 tackles.


1. Brit Miller and Martez Wilson (Illinois): Tackling machines Miller and Wilson seemed to allow the orange fan base to forget about 2007 graduate and star middle linebacker, J Leman. Miller took home top honors in tackles with 132, while sophomore WILL tacked on another 73—that’s a whopping 205 combined. Oh, and they also sacked the opposition nine times between the two.

Tomorrow: Best Kicks

Photo Credit: College Press Box (Penn St.)

CFI RANKINGS: #10 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

2007 RECORD: 9-4; BIG TEN: 6-2
Lost Rose Bowl vs. USC 49-17
LOCATION: Champaign, Illinois
STADIUM: Memorial Stadium (65,000)
HEAD COACH: Ron Zook
OVERALL: 36-37 (6 seasons)
AT ILLINOIS: 13-23 (3 seasons)

We knew Ron Zook could recruit—see the 2006 BCS Champion Florida Gators—but last season Zook showed us that he can in fact coach a little too. When he arrived in Champaign, the Illini were coming off back-to-back losing seasons in which they combined to win four games (19 losses). It wasn’t a quick turnaround for the Zooker—he won four games in his first two seasons (19 losses)—but quietly he was building the foundation. Last year Illinois broke through, not only qualifying for a bowl, but the Rose Bowl. They won nine games which, if you do your math right, is one more than the previous four seasons combined.

WHEN THE ILLINI HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mike Locksley (4th Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 7
KEY LOSSES: Rashad Mendenhall, Martin O’Donnell, Akim Millington, Jacob Willis

Rashad Mendenhall is a big loss, but don’t shed too many tears for the Illini’s rushing attack. They return three-fifths of their offensive line and in Juice Williams they have one of the nation’s top running quarterbacks. Williams has a thick lower body which allows him to use his power as well as his athleticism to break tackles. Williams also does not run simply to pad his numbers, but when the team needs him the most—his yards count. Replacing Mendenhall will likely fall to more than one man. Senior RB Daniel Dufrens showed glimpses of his breakaway ability in backup duty. Freshmen Mikel LeShoure, Troy Pollard and Jason Ford will get their chances, with LeShoure packing a big punch at 240 pounds. Williams is still a work in progress as a passer, but the arm strength and potential are there. Sophomore WR Arrelious Benn was as good as advertised and should even better in year number two as a starter now that he is completely healthy. Jeff Cumberland has potential and was underutilized last season.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) WR Arrelious Benn (SO), 2) TE/WR Jeff Cumberland (JR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

CO-DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Dan Disch (2nd Season/4th at Illinois)
CO-DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Curt Mallory (2nd Season/4th at Illinois)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 6
KEY LOSSES: J Leman, Antonio Steele, Justin Harrison, Kevin Mitchell, Justin Sanders

Up front, none of their players would be described as spectacular, but they have an excellent rotation at defensive end, led by seniors Will Davis and Derek Walker sharing time with junior Doug Pilcher. Davis is their top pass rusher, with Pilcher providing some big plays off the bench. In the interior, senior DT David Lindquist is their top run stuffer. The back seven features two of the most physically gifted and talented defenders in the nation in junior CB Vontae Davis and sophomore LB Martez Wilson. Davis is further ahead of the curve with two years of experience as a starter, while Wilson is more of a raw talent still learning the ropes. Both are explosive and potential difference makers. Leading the group in the huddle will be senior Brit Miller, who slides over from OLB to MIKE, taking the place of J Leman. They have talent at safety, but they are unproven. Whether it be at safety or sprinkled in the front seven, expect an influx of young talent on the defensive side of the ball.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) CB Vontae Davis (JR), 2) LB Martez Wilson (SO)

THE SCHEDULE

The Illini have a chance to show the college football world that last season was not a fluke when they take on “Arch” rival Missouri to kick off the season. Last season neither team was ranked to start the year…this time around, both are. One thing is for sure—if they are to reach nine wins again, the Illini will have to earn it. They must visit Penn St., Michigan and Wisconsin, with their trips to Happy Valley and Ann Arbor kicking off their conference schedule. That’s four foes in the preseason Coaches Poll before the calendar turns to November. In the season’s final month, they finally play a ranked opponent in the friendly confines as the Ohio St. Buckeyes make a visit.

PIVOTAL POINT

A more well-rounded Juice: Williams has been receiving high praise for his play in camp and is coming off a scrimmage in which he completed 16-of-25 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns (no interceptions). He can do it, he’s done it before, he just needs to do it on a more consistent bases. Against the No. 1 ranked Ohio St. Buckeyes, Williams threw four touchdown passes and no interceptions, handing the Buckeyes their lone regular season loss. However, in the Illini’s other 12 games, his TD-INT ratio was 9-12, which is simply unacceptable. His completion percentage of 57.3 also will not cut it if Illinois is to take the next step.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

The Illini may have arrived a bit ahead of schedule last season. Some might even say they were exposed by the Men of Troy in the Rose Bowl…but not so fast my friends. Although the Illini may not improve upon their 9 wins from last season, there's no reason to think they can't at least match it. With three tough tests in their first five games, the learning curve is steep, but no one can deny the playmakers are in place. Illinois is a sleeper in the Big Ten.

Photo Credit: University of Illinois