CFI: CONNECTICUT & CINCINNATI RIDE THE TURNOVER WAVE

BY BROCK MURPHY
CFI COLUMNIST

At the beginning of the season, most fans of the Big East discussed West Virginia, Louisville and Rutgers as the likely candidates to win the conference. The more learned fans knew to give South Florida a significant chance at making a dent in the season’s conference standings.

Outside of their own insiders, few if any fans considered Cincinnati or relative newcomer Connecticut as legitimate challengers for the conference crown.

Yet, as the tenth week of the season approaches, UConn is only team with an undefeated conference record while Cincinnati is tied for third in the conference’s standings.

They play each other this Saturday afternoon (3:30PM EST) in Cincinnati.

So, what’s the story behind these two teams? Turnovers. Cincinnati and Connecticut are ranked 3rd and 4th in the nation, respectively, in turnover margin.

Cincinnati has forced no fewer than 34 turnovers this season (eight, alone, last weekend against South Florida). No other team is even close. Four teams (Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Kansas and Michigan) are a distant second, with 27 turnovers gained.

Most of the Bearcats’ turnover productivity is courtesy of their pass defense, which has produced more interceptions than any other team in the nation – twenty-one (21).
But, guess which team is #2? You guessed it. Connecticut.

And while Cincinnati has thrown nine interceptions of its own this year, UConn has thrown only four.

In the final analysis, Cincinnati’s defense has produced 11 more turnovers than that of Connecticut while the Huskies’ offense have been far more careful, giving up nine fewer turnovers than the Bearcats this season.

But, it is all about turnovers? Of course, each team has more to offer than dominance in turnover margin.

On offense, Cincinnati’s Ben Mauk is far more efficient (18th, nationally) than UConn’s Tyler Lorenzen (42nd). Still, while Lorenzen’s game against South Florida was not utterly efficient (135 rating), it contained a curious blend of efficiency. While completing fewer than half of his passes (10 of 21), he managed to turn two of his 10 completions into scores.

Of course, every offense strives for balance and UConn’s search has been complicated by injuries. Sophomore Donald Brown (5-10, 213) was the starter when 2007 began but he injured his ankle four weeks ago, missed the Virginia game (the only loss suffered by the Huskies this year – and by just one point at that), and saw his carries limited upon his return to health due to the subsequent emergence of fellow-sophomore

Andre Dixon (6-1, 187).
Yet, against Rutgers, Dixon injured himself after 10 carries, opening the door for Brown’s return to the lineup. Twenty-four carries, 154 yards and one score later, Brown upstaged former Heisman candidate Ray Rice (110 yards) and made a strong bid for a return to the starting lineup.

It was Brown’s first 100-yard performance of the season and it was a bit of an ambush on a Scarlet Knight defense which likely prepared for Dixon’s style and tendencies; not Brown’s. That could be important this weekend. Brown is on film. The Bearcats, who sport the nation’s 20th-ranked rushing defense (107 ypg) will be ready for him.

When Cincinnati has the ball, the pressure will be placed firmly on the shoulders of senior QB Ben Mauk. Having yet to throw more than one interception in any game this year, he has kept mistakes to a minimum. Still, he does not have a game-changer at tailback to assure his unit of balance. In fact, last weekend, his 75 rushing yards tied South Florida QB Matt Grothe as the game’s leading rusher.

Without offensive balance, Mauk will have his hands full against the Husky defense. Ranked 12th in the nation in efficiency, UConn’s stop unit allows only a 58 percent completion rate and less than 10 yards per completion. They have also picked off 19 passes this year while giving up only six TD’s.

No team has thrown more than one TD against the Huskies’ defense this season. UConn’s last two opponents, South Florida and Rutgers (whose QB, Mike Teel, is the 23rd-rated passer in the NCAA), failed to log a scoring toss.

In just his ninth season as a head coach, Connecticut’s Randy Edsall has 49 wins. None of them have been against Cincinnati. The Huskies are 0-3 against the Bearcats. The Husky nation would like nothing better than to have Edsall pick up his 50th career win on national television against a conference opponent they have never beaten before.

Photo Credit: Collegiate Images