CFI Preview: Connecticut @ Notre Dame

By Mark J. Zavodnyik

An era will likely end when Notre Dame hosts Connecticut on Saturday afternoon at Notre Dame Stadium.

It is senior day for Notre Dame and Irish fans will cheer on its fourth and fifth year players for the final time in their home stadium. It is also likely the final home game for quarterback Jimmy Clausen. The junior from Westlake Village, CA is one of the nation’s top signal-callers and a likely first round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Not only that, embattled Irish head coach Charlie Weis could be coaching his last game on the sidelines at Notre Dame Stadium. After suffering the season’s fourth defeat last week against Pittsburgh, the cat calls screaming for Weis’ departure have reached a fever pitch.

On the other side of the field, Connecticut continues to press on through a season that was altered when junior cornerback Jasper Howard was stabbed to death on October 18.

The Huskies have been heroic in their ability to continue to play games while such intense pain and sadness surrounds the program. UConn has played well since Howard’s death, but has just one victory to show for their efforts.

In fact, it has been a season of close calls for head coach Randy Edsall and the Huskies. All five of Connecticut’s losses have come by a combined 15 points.

Keys for a Connecticut Victory

1) Establish the Husky running duo: Edsall’s vision for UConn to be a physical, power running attack came to fruition last year in Donald Brown, who led the nation with more than 2000 rushing yards. Brown went on to be selected in the first round by the Indianapolis Colts in the 2009 NFL draft.

This season UConn has two highly effective running backs in sophomore Jordan Todman and redshirt senior Andre Dixon. The Husky rushing duo has been the driving force behind the UConn offense this year. Together they have combined for 1,556 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns.

Todman had his best game of the season two weeks ago against Cincinnati. The sophomore from North Dartmouth, MA rushed for 162 yards on 26 carries and four touchdowns.

UConn will look to utilize Todman and Dixon early in this game in an effort to establish momentum and take pressure off quarterback Zach Frazer. It is important for the Huskies to establish a solid running attack because…

2) Edsall does not want to rely on Frazer: The passing game is merely a secondary option in the Husky offensive attack. UConn does not have the firepower to score a lot of points through the air, so it is important for them to establish a ground game. In their recent offensive shootout against Cincinnati, four of the Huskies’ five touchdowns came via the run game.

Frazer began the season as the starting quarterback but injured his knee against North Carolina. Redshirt sophomore Cody Endres was playing very well in relief of Frazer until he was injured in UConn’s loss to Rutgers on October 31. After the Rutgers game, Endres underwent season-ending surgery on his non-throwing shoulder.

The Huskies do not want to put the game into the hands of Frazer. The redshirt junior from Mechanicsburg, PA has struggled with his accuracy this season, throwing four touchdown passes against seven interceptions in just four games.

Ideally, UConn will establish Todman and Dixon and then allow Frazer to make simple reads on short to intermediate throws.

If Frazer can find some rhythm in the passing game, he will look to the Huskies’ leading receiver Marcus Easley. The senior from Stratford, Conn. has 26 catches for 559 yards and five touchdowns on the season.

Keys for a Notre Dame Victory

1) Remember how to tackle: Notre Dame’s once reliable run defense has vanished.

During the first part of the season, the Irish rush defense did well, holding a number of effective running teams to well below their season average. Nevada is the best rushing team in college football at 353.1 yards per game. Notre Dame held them to just 153 yards on the ground.

A week after Montel Harris of Boston College torched NC State for 264 yards and five touchdowns, the Irish defense held him to just 38 yards.

However, all that has changed in recent weeks. In their last two games to Navy and Pittsburgh, Notre Dame has allowed a combined 584 rushing yards.

The Irish defense has become a cautionary tale of poor tackling. The erratic unit is now allowing its opponents a generous average of 153.2 yards per game on the ground.

It is very difficult to win or even get a lead in a game when the opponent can so easily dictate the tempo on the ground.

If the Notre Dame defense plays like it did against Boston College, they will come close to making UConn one dimensional. Notre Dame has a great chance to win the game if UConn is forced to heavily rely on Frazer.

2) Expose Connecticut’s cornerbacks: The Husky defense is led by a trio of seasoned linebackers: captain Scott Lutrus, Greg Lloyd, and Lawrence Wilson. Wilson and Lloyd are the UConn’s leading tacklers.

However, after the men in the middle, UConn is highly inexperienced defensively. This lack of experience is particularly evident in the secondary.

The Huskies frequently employ a nickel defensive package, utilizing three cornerbacks.
Since the devastating loss of Howard, UConn has been forced to start two freshmen at cornerback.

With such inexperience in the secondary, Notre Dame will look to exploit the mismatch and get the ball as much as possible into the hands of its top-flight receivers Golden Tate & Michael Floyd.

The duo is arguably the best receiving combination in all of college football. Floyd is second on the team in receiving yards despite missing five games with a broken collarbone. Tate has been all-world this season, leading Notre Dame in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. The junior from Hendersonville, TN is averaging 117.2 receiving yards per game, the fourth best average in the nation.

Prediction

Connecticut is arguably the best 4-5 team in the country. The Huskies play physical football and they get solid production from their two running backs. When facing a talented opponent on the road, a power running game is a great weapon to have in one’s arsenal. (See: UConn @ Cincinnati two weeks ago) The Huskies will rush for more than 150 yards as a team.

However, Notre Dame’s skill players on offense will provide match-up problems that the Huskies will be unable to overcome.

The Irish will build a lead in the third quarter and Frazer’s inconsistency will not allow UConn to mount a comeback. The fact that Frazer returns to the school from which he transferred means he will likely be throwing from a mental state that is never good for a quarterback: He will try to do too much.

Score: Notre Dame 30, Connecticut, 23

Photos Courtesy of UConn Athletic Communications, Notre Dame Sports Information

Draft Watch: Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh

1) Notre Dame Offensive Line vs. Pittsburgh Defensive Ends: Most games are won in the trenches and this one will be no different. How the Fighting Irish offensive line holds up against the explosive unit up front for the Panthers will dictate whether or not the Golden Domers will have a chance at pulling off the upset.

Pittsburgh has recorded a whopping 39 sacks this season and most of the pressure comes from their front four led by junior Greg Romeus, who has a team-high 7.5 sacks, nine quarterback hurries and four passes defensed. The former basketball player is still developing as football player, with his pass rushing skills serving as the strength of his game. At 6’ 6” and 270 pounds, Romeus has prototypical size and is an exceptional athlete. He also has a tremendous wingspan, which allows him to keep offensive linemen from getting into his body, as well as knock down passes when he doesn’t get all the way to the quarterback. Senior defensive tackle Mick Williams (three sacks) leads the team with 13 tackles for a loss and is a force against the run using his quickness to knife by blockers to meet ball carries in the backfield. Those are the leaders, but they have depth as well. At defensive tackle, sophomores Myles Caragein (five sacks) and Chas Alecxih (four sacks) come off the bench to put pressure on the quarterback. Similar to Williams (6’ 1”/280 pounds), Caragein (6’ 2”/275 pounds) and Alecxih (6’ 5”/272 pounds) are undersized and will need to put on some weight if they are going to play on Sundays. At end, junior Jabaal Sheard starts opposite of Romeus and is still working on his pass rushing skills (2.5 sacks), but is coming along rather well as a run stopper (30 tackles, 6.5 tackles for a loss). Sophomore Bandon Lindsey who looks more like a linebacker (6’ 2”/240 pounds) has recorded four sacks and four quarterback hurries off the bench and could replace Romeus as the team’s top pass rusher in 2010 should Romeus declare for the NFL Draft.

The Irish counter with a veteran offensive line that has four seniors on the first team and averages nearly 6’ 6” and 315 pounds, however the group hasn’t had a particularly impressive 2009 campaign. Senior right tackle Sam Young is the best of the bunch, but as a true freshman it appeared he was well on his way to being a first round pick. While he is a good athlete and at 6’ 8” and 320 pounds the senior is an imposing figure, but the fact is he is not playing the left tackle and that has raised questions amongst scouts. Young has not improved his footwork or technique the way talent evaluators have hoped despite his experience. No longer a first round talent, Young could go anywhere from the second-to-fourth rounds, depending on how he finishes the season and fares in the off-season. Left tackle Paul Duncan is also a monster of a man at 6’ 7” and 315 pounds, but lacks what the pros look for in terms of mobility, which is why it is doubtful he will be asked to protect the blind side at the next level. Duncan is likely a priority free agent at this point, but should he get an opportunity to showcase what he can do at an NFL camp, he could be developmental player worth investing in. One player who may have helped his draft status this season is center Eric Olsen, who at 6’ 4” and 305 pounds brings excellent size. The New York City native is also a versatile talent, who started at guard last season before Charlie Weis decided to move him over to center. Olsen looks like a solid mid-round choice. The reason for the move was the Irish wanted to get sophomore guard Trevor Robinson (6’ 5”/305 pounds) into the starting lineup. When it’s all said and done, the young road grater could turn out to be the best pro of the group.

2) Irish Air Attack: Quarterback Jimmy Clausen throwing to wide outs Michael Floyd and Golden Tate make Notre Dame one of the most feared teams in the nation when they take to the air. Clausen, a junior, is putting together quite a statistical season—well on pace to career highs in yards (3,693), touchdown passes (27) and completion percentage (67.9 percent). Even more impressive is his three interceptions (on pace for four) after he threw the ball to the other team 17 times as a sophomore. Clausen has an NFL arm and throws one of the prettiest deep balls of any quarterback in the nation. Just as impressive has been his toughness fighting through turf toe and a bruised hand, not to mention his clutch play in the fourth quarter. Many of Notre Dame’s wins have been of the come from behind variety. Coaches will surely take note of his ability to make plays in pressure situations, as well as at less than 100 percent. Even so, the signal caller is not quite a finished product. He doesn’t always use the whole field and many of his numbers come courtesy of acrobatic catches made by his talented wide outs. Clausen will have to make a decision at the end of the season, he could be a top 10 overall pick should he declare. Tate, a fellow junior, could also make an early exit from South Bend. The pass catcher has displayed excellent hands, ability to make plays after the catch, as well as stretch the field. The Tennessee native has already topped 1,000 yards (for the second straight year) and leads Notre Dame with his 65 receptions, 1,059 yards and 10 touchdown receptions. He lacks ideal size (5’ 11” and 195 pounds), but is very strong, both his lower body and his hands. The high school tailback averages 16.3 yards per receptions and 7.5 yards per carry (two rushing touchdowns) and could see some time taking the snap when the Irish go to their version of the “wildcat”. Maybe the most talented player on Notre Dame is Michael Floyd, just a sophomore. Floyd missed five games with a broken collarbone, but returned last week and did not miss a beat catching 10 balls for 141 yards and a touchdown in the Irish’s loss to Navy. Floyd has prototypical size (6’ 3”/220 pounds) and speed, which is why he looks like a future first round pick. In four games, Floyd has five touchdowns and averages 21.7 yards per catch. Even when double teamed Floyd is almost unstoppable on deep routes, his vertical leap allows him to make catches in traffic. Notre Dame will be without talented sophomore tight end Kyle Rudolph who is out for the remainder of the regular season with a shoulder injury.

3) Panther Air Attack: Bill Stull, yes Bill Stull may have played himself into a draftable grade with his play as a senior. Watching the Pittsburgh offense this season, it is hard believe this is the same group that lost the Sun Bowl to Oregon State 3-0 last season. Stull was 7-of-24 passing (29.2 percent) for 52 yards versus the Beavers. His junior numbers were nothing to right home about—57 percent completion rate, nine touchdown passes, 10 interceptions and 25 sacks. At certain points they would strike up the band for first downs and no one had Stull on their draft board. Oh what a difference a year can make. Stull is completing 67.6 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions (eight sacks). He is making better decisions, quicker, with improved accuracy. The senior is also connecting on big plays averaging 8.58 yards per pass compared to 7.14 last season. However, the hometown boy isn’t going to be the first Pitt quarterback to be drafted in the first round since Dan Marino (Joe Flacco doesn’t count), but could have played himself into being a late round selection, at the very least a priority free agent. A big reason for Stull’s success is the emergence of sophomore receiver Jonathan Baldwin and senior tight end Dorin Dickerson. Baldwin showed flashes as a freshman and is truly flourishing in his second season—leading the team with 35 receptions for 698 yards (four touchdowns). He has great size at 6’ 5” and 225 pounds, which allows him to go up and get the football, a mismatch for most college corners. Baldwin lacks prototypical speed, but still manages to be a big play threat (19.9 yards per receptions). In one-on-one coverage he is extremely hard to contain. As much as Stull has elevated his game, Dickerson has been a true revelation as a senior. He came in highly touted and rivals anyone on the roster as the most impressive athlete on the team. Seeing time at linebacker and wide receiver earlier in his career, Dickson has finally found a home at tight end, although he may not stay there as some view him as an H-Back or even a fullback at the next level. Dickerson is a touchdown maker with 10 scoring grabs on the season among his 39 receptions (450 yards). Against Syracuse last week, Dickerson caught seven passes for a career-high 118 yards. At 230 pounds, he is undersized for a tight end, but he can stretch the field and is dangerous after the catch.

Photos Courtesy of University of Pittsburgh, Notre Dame Sports Information

CFI Preview: Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh

Heinz Field, Saturday, 8:00PM ET, ABC

Overview

Charlie Weis returns to the site of his first college coaching victory when Notre Dame travels to Pittsburgh Saturday night to take on the Panthers at Heinz Field.

Much has changed for Notre Dame and Pittsburgh over the past five seasons. Weis and the Fighting Irish got off to a flying start, reaching a BCS game in each of his first two seasons at the helm.

The next three years have not been as kind. Notre Dame finished 3-9 in 2007 and 7-6 in 2008. The Irish had high hopes coming into this season but have fallen to 6-3 after last week’s 23-21 defeat to Navy. It was the first time Notre Dame has lost consecutive home games to the Midshipmen since 1961 and 1963.

Dave Wannstedt made his college head coaching career against Weis and Notre Dame in 2005. Unlike the Fighting Irish, Pittsburgh struggled initially under their new coach. After going 16-19 through Wannstedt’s first three years, the Panthers are 17-5 since.

The university’s patience with Wannstedt has paid off: The Panthers are ranked in the top ten of a national poll (#8 in the AP) for the first time since 1982, Dan Marino’s senior season.

This year’s game will feature plenty of offensive firepower for both teams. Pittsburgh is led by quarterback Bill Stull, freshman running back Dion Lewis, tight end Dorin Dickerson and receiver Jonathan Baldwin.

Notre Dame has quarterback Jimmy Clausen and two of the best receivers in college football: Golden Tate and Michael Floyd.

With so many offensive weapons for both teams, this primetime match-up could very well be a shoot-out.

Keys for a Pittsburgh Victory

1) Win the First Quarter: Pittsburgh’s home crowd will be fired-up when the ball is finally kicked-off shortly after 8pm on Saturday night. The Panthers can put themselves in a great position to win the game if they can feed off the crowd’s energy and get off to a fast start.

The Panthers have done a great job in the first quarter this season, outscoring their opponents 71-38 in the opening period.

Pittsburgh will be able to dictate the game’s rhythm if they can get off to quick lead. Early points by the Panther offense will allow the Pitt coaching staff to give the Notre Dame defense a heavy dose of Lewis and the running attack. Defensively, Pittsburgh can speed rush Clausen because they know Notre Dame will abandon the run game once they fall behind.

Most importantly, an early lead for the Panthers will be a psychological challenge to the Irish. Under Weis, Notre Dame has struggled to recover after disappointing losses. In the wake of a four-overtime defeat to Pittsburgh a year ago, the Irish were never the same, limping through the rest of the regular season with losses to Boston College, Syracuse and USC.

Last week’s loss to Navy may be the toughest yet. Should Pittsburgh build an early first quarter lead, the Irish may not have the mental fortitude to stay in the game.

2) Maintain Efficiency: Pittsburgh has been an incredibly consistent team on both sides of the ball this season. Offensively, the Panthers are well-balanced, rushing for 18 touchdowns and passing for 19. Stull leads a much improved Panther passing attack and has surprised everyone this season with his play. The senior from Pittsburgh is fifth in the nation in passing efficiency.

The Panthers also maximize their scoring chances. Pittsburgh is 17th in the nation in red zone efficiency. The Panthers have scored 37 times in 41 red zone opportunities; 27 of those scores were touchdowns.

Leadership and consistency along the offensive and defensive lines have been vital to Pittsburgh’s success. Both lines are filled with juniors and seniors. Their starting offensive linemen have played well and stayed healthy—all five have started every game.

Defensively, the Panthers get after opposing quarterbacks and do not make a lot of mistakes. Pittsburgh is 19th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 17.1 points per game.

Pittsburgh’s efficiency is a great asset when matched-up against a Notre Dame team that is inconsistent and undisciplined.

Keys for a Notre Dame Victory

1) Protect Clausen: The Notre Dame offensive line must do a better job of protecting Clausen. Against an undersized and less talented Navy defensive unit a week ago, the Irish gave up two sacks, one of which occurred in the end zone giving Navy a safety and two critical points with just over a minute remaining in the game.

This week the Irish face one of the most productive defensive lines in the country. Pittsburgh leads in the nation in sacks with 38. The Panthers are able to get consistent pressure up front without blitzing much. This allows their linebackers to fall back into pass coverage.

Up front, the Panthers are led by a group of experienced and highly productive players. Senior defensive tackle Mick Williams leads the team with 13 tackles for loss. Defensive end Greg Romeus has 7.5 sacks on the year. The junior from Coral Springs, Florida has made 22 consecutive starts.

Pittsburgh is not the first team that Notre Dame will face this season that gets a lot of pressure on the quarterback without blitzing its linebackers. USC is also highly disruptive without blitzing and the Notre Dame offensive line struggled mightily against the Trojans, allowing USC to sack Clausen five teams. Luckily the Irish were able to rely on their highly talented junior quarterback to lead them back into that game and almost pull out the victory.

Notre Dame needs a great game from one of its most experienced units if they’re going to steal one from the Panthers. Clausen’s effectiveness is directly related to the amount of protection he gets from his offensive line.

2) Slow Down Dion Lewis: The freshman running back has been a revelation for Pittsburgh this season. Not highly recruited out of prep school in New Jersey, Lewis has exploded on the scene, already rushing for 1,176 yards. Lewis has gone over 100 rushing yards in six of Pittsburgh’s nine games.

The Irish have struggled defending the rush this season, allowing the opposition to average 148.8 yards per game on the ground.

Notre Dame defensive tackles Ethan Johnson and Ian Williams will play the key roles in defending the run. At times this season, they and the Irish defense have been very good against the run. Notre Dame held two effective running teams, USC and Boston College, to more than 75 yards below their season averages.

However just last week, the Irish gave up 348 yards on the ground to Navy.

Notre Dame cannot allow Lewis to gash them for huge chunks of yards. Pittsburgh is very balanced on offense and once the Panthers establish Lewis, they will utilize Stull and the physical Pittsburgh receivers in play-action passes.

Notre Dame needs to implement a game plan similar to the one they used against Boston College: neutralize the Panther running attack and try to make Pittsburgh one-dimensional.

Prediction

Pitt’s doubters say the Panthers haven’t beaten anybody. Ironically, their biggest victory to this point is probably over a Navy team that beat Notre Dame last week. The Panthers will be motivated, in primetime, to show the nation that they are for real.

Notre Dame seems to be at yet another crossroads. Will the Irish recover from a disappointing loss? Will Charlie Weis be the Notre Dame coach next season?

Regardless of Weis’ job security, Clausen is too good of a quarterback to allow the game to get beyond Notre Dame’s reach. Pittsburgh’s balance and consistency will win out, but Clausen will make the game close. The Panthers will score a touchdown in the final minutes to earn a dramatic victory.

Score: Pittsburgh 42, Notre Dame 41

Photos Courtesy of Notre Dame Sports Information, University of Pittsburgh

Big East Power Rankings & Preview Week 11

1. Cincinnati Bearcats 9-0, (5-0): Last week: Won vs. Connecticut 47-45 - The offense gained a whopping of 711 yards without Tony Pike. Marshwan Gilyard continues to make a case for conference player of the year. The senior wide receiver grabbed a season high 12-catches for 172 yards.

Up next: vs. West Virginia - Quarterback Zach Collaros will get the nod again as the starting quarterback. Pike remains an option but the offense hasn’t missed a beat without him. Against the fierce rushing attack of West Virginia it will be the defense that needs to step up to remain undefeated. They gave up 201 yards on the ground to the Huskies. The key to the game will be coaching and turnovers-Brian Kelly has always done a fantastic job having his teams ready for big games and Cincinnati leads the conference in interceptions. Don’t be surprised to see Aaron Webster or Drew Frey pick off a a big pass in the red zone to make the difference.

Prediction: Cincinnati 37, West Virginia 33

2. Pittsburgh 8-1, (5-0): Last Week: Won vs. Syracuse 37-10 - An interception returned for a touchdown by linebacker Greg Williams turned what was a close game into a route pretty quickly. Dion Lewis continues his remarkable freshman season rushing for 110 yards, his fourth consecutive 100-plus yard game.

Up Next: vs. Notre Dame - The Irish certainly come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after dropping a home game to Navy and quarterback Jimmy Clausen is likely to have a bounce-back game. Receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are big play guys that will give the Panther secondary trouble. The difference in the game will be how well Pittsburgh runs the football. If they manage the game well and quarterback Bill Stull doesn’t make any significant mistakes they should be able to out slug the Fighting Irish. Jonathon Baldwin is prime to break out for a big game, he’s already racked up 678 yards this season.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 36, Notre Dame 28

3. South Florida Bulls 6-2, (2-2): Last week: Idle - South Florida has a lot to improve on. The offensive line needs to improve their chemistry, the receivers need to step up and the defense must play better against the run. The talent is there, but can they finish strong?

Up Next: At Rutgers - Winning a Big East title is out of the question but winning games in November will certainly start building momentum for the program and a run next year. Expect pass rushers George Selvie, Jason Pierre-Paul and Craig Marshall to give the Rutgers' freshman quarterback Tom Savage trouble. A match-up to keep an eye on will be the talented receivers of Rutgers like the speedy Tim Brown facing off against safety Nate Allen and cornerback Jerome Murphy. What the Scarlet Knights can do well is stop the run behind their strong front seven. In their losses to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh slow starts resulted in desperate play calling which included too all-or-nothing plays. USF must take advantage of B.J. Daniels' running ability.

Prediction: South Florida 23, Rutgers 14

4. West Virginia 7-2, (3-1): Last week: Won vs. Louisville 17-9 - The game was closer than the experts thought and the Cardinals actually had a chance to tie the game in the final minutes. Defensive lineman Julian Miller recorded three sacks in the game bringing his season total to 8.5 which ranks second in the conference.

Up next: At Cincinnati - Noel Devine is why West Virginia will make this a competitive game. The conference's second leading rusher always steps up when the team needs him. He’s racked up 1,010 yards, averaging 6.0 yards a carry and ten touchdowns. But if they want to pull off the upset they’re going to need more than just Devine’s big runs. If quarterback Jarrett Brown doesn’t play well they will lose, he must keep the mistakes to a minimum.

Prediction: Cincinnati 37, West Virginia 33

5. Rutgers 6-2, (1-2): Last week: Idle - With a week off the offense had a lot to work on as they prepare for the final four games. They rank second to last in the conference in both passing and running, barely better than woeful Syracuse.

Up Next: vs. South Florida - In order to win this football game Rutgers must run the ball down the throats of South Florida. Joe Martinek leads the team with 601 yards and seven touchdowns but hasn’t gained more than 54 yards in three previous conference games. Look for Rutgers to utilize extra practice time to add more looks and wrinkles to their offense. Running backs Jourdan Brooks, freshman De’Antwan Williams and receiver Mohamed Sanu running the wild-cat should all see more action. Wide-receiver Tim Brown is quietly having a fantastic season and he has proven he can make clutch plays. Defensively their number one job is contain the mobile quarterback, linebackers Ryan D’Imperio and Damaso Munoz will be up for the challenge.

Prediction: South Florida 23, Rutgers 14

6.Connecticut 4-5, (1-4): Last week: Lost at Cincinnati 47-45 - It’s true that moral victories don’t get you into bowl games but it’s tough to be critical of the Huskies this week. With all they've been through, to be down on the road and coming back deserves some credit.

Up Next: Idle - A much needed time off to collect their thoughts and prepare for Notre Dame.

7. Louisville 3-6, (0-4): Last week: Lost at West Virginia 17-9 - Emerging as the new lead ball carrier is Darius Ashley. The freshman rushed for 164 yards on 33 carries.

Up Next: vs. Syracuse - This will be the last game of the season in which Louisville is expected to win. Playing against an Orange team that is experiencing turmoil, the Cardinals must minimize their turnovers and execute in the red zone. They should also take advantage of talented wide-outs Doug Beaumont and Scott Long versus a very poor pass defense.

Prediction: Louisville 21, Syracuse 20

8. Syracuse 3-6, (0-4): Last week: Lost at Pittsburgh 37-10 - There wasn’t much that went right in this football game other then very good individual performances. Linebacker Derrell Smith continues to flourish racking up eight total tackles (6.5 sacks this season). The star of the game for Syracuse was Delone Carter who rushed for 144 yards on 17 carriers. It wasn’t a stat padding game either, most of the yards were gained in the first half when the game was still in reach.

Up Next: at Louisville - With their best offensive player Mike Williams having quite the team and their top defensive player Arthur Jones out for the season with a torn lateral meniscus...what does this team have left? This is a critical point for head coach Doug Marrone not to let his football team spiral downwarf even more. In order to win this game Carter must have another fantastic game on the ground.

Prediction: Louisville 21, Syracuse 20
Photos Courtesy of University of Pittsburgh, WVU Sports Communication, Syracuse University Athletics

CFI Preview: Navy @ Notre Dame

By: Mark J. Zavodnyik

Notre Dame Stadium, Saturday, 2:30PM ET, NBC

Overview

Notre Dame and Navy renew one of college football’s oldest rivalries for the 83rd time Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium.

Navy starting quarterback Ricky Dobbs returns this week. Dobbs has been hobbled of late by a knee injury he suffered against SMU in October. In last week’s 27-24 loss to Temple, Dobbs sat out the entire game except for the final series when the Midshipmen were attempting a last-minute comeback.

Navy is bowl eligible for an impressive seventh consecutive season. With four games left on the schedule, the Midshipmen are on their way to securing a winning record for the seventh straight year as well.

Sophomore receiver Michael Floyd returns for the Irish after sustaining a broken collar bone against Michigan State on September 19. Floyd is an electric playmaker who can change the entire dynamic of Notre Dame’s offense.

Notre Dame is looking to secure their seventh win of the season and continue their push for a possible BCS berth. The Fighting Irish play at Pittsburgh next week in a game that could determine the BCS fate of both teams.

For now, though, Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis is tasked with keeping his players focused on Navy.

Keys for a Navy Victory

1) Ricky Dobbs: The Navy offense is back to full strength with their starting quarterback returning to action. Like Jimmy Clausen for Notre Dame, Dobbs is the most important component of the Midshipmen offense.

The 6’ 1”, 198-pound junior from Douglasville, Georgia is a physical player who has a nose for the end zone. Dobbs is the nation’s leading scorer, averaging 12 points per game, and has scored 16 of Navy’s 32 offensive touchdowns this season.

It is no secret that Navy’s triple-option offense is focused on the run game. The Midshipmen have the nation’s third-best rushing offense, averaging 279.8 yards per game on the ground.

Navy does not pass the ball particularly well, averaging just 71.7 passing yards per contest. In fact, the Midshipmen did not attempt a single pass when Dobbs sat out in their victory over Wake Forest two weeks ago.

However, Navy can be an effective play-action passing team with Dobbs at quarterback. His best passing day of the season came against Ohio State in the season opener when he threw for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Navy will look to catch Notre Dame off-guard with a few well-timed play-action passes.

Dobbs’ supporting cast on offense includes Navy’s leading rusher, fullback Vince Murray. The junior from Union, Kentucky was not a starter at the beginning of the season, but he has made the most of his opportunities. Murray currently has a streak of three consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards.

2) Keep Clausen off the Field: Navy defensive coordinator Buddy Green has an experienced unit playing much better than it did a year ago. Last season the Midshipmen’s opponents averaged 27.2 points per game. This year their scoring defense average is down to 21.4.

Navy is 59th in rushing defense (137.44 yards per game) this season, and 23rd in passing defense. (178.11)

In his Tuesday news conference, Weis said this Midshipmen defense is Navy’s best since he arrived at Notre Dame.

Navy does not get a lot of sacks (just 11 on the season) or tackles for a loss (32), so it is important for them to get solid, consistent play from the heart of their defense: the linebackers.

Navy has been fortunate to get production and leadership from a trio of solid linebackers. Senior Ross Pospisil is Navy’s leading tackler with 65 total tackles. The Temple, Texas native is an emotional leader for the Midshipmen and the team’s defensive captain.

Linebackers Tyler Simmons and Tony Haberer are second and third respectively in team tackles. The ability of Navy’s linebackers to make reads, stay in position, and lead the defense is vital for the Midshipmen to keep the scoring down.

The most effective component of the Midshipmen defense is their ability to end drives on third down. Navy is ranked sixth in the country in third down defense. By getting off the field on third down, Navy can rely on its ball-control offense to establish the game’s rhythm.

Navy will severely limit Clausen and the Notre Dame offense if they can continue to play great defense on third down.

Keys for a Notre Dame Victory

1) Robert Hughes: The junior from Chicago is coming off one of the best performances of his career. Against Washington State, Hughes rushed for 131 yards on 24 carries and one touchdown.

Hughes will likely be the focal point of the Notre Dame running attack again this week. The usual starter, Armando Allen, has been dealing with a sprained right ankle and did not play against Washington State. Allen is listed as day-to-day and Weis may want to rest him in preparation for next week’s game against Pittsburgh.

Navy and Notre Dame have both been very good at controlling the clock this season. The Midshipmen rank second in the nation in time of possession per game (34:18), and the Irish are fifth. (33:19)

Notre Dame wants to dictate the tempo of the game and keep Navy’s clock-eating offense off the field. Hughes’ ability to grind out tough yardage and string together first downs is the key to accomplishing that goal.

A performance for Hughes like the one he had against Washington State will go a long way in earning a victory for the Irish.

2) Eliminate Mental Errors: One would think that Notre Dame is the last program in the country that would fail to take Navy seriously. Notre Dame plays the Midshipmen every year and the Irish are very familiar with Navy’s athletes and style of play.

When the Midshipmen defeated Notre Dame 46-44 in 2007, Navy ended the longest losing streak to a single opponent in FBS history (43).

With all that being said, Notre Dame continues to be a team that makes too many mental mistakes. It seems as though in every game there is a personal foul, holding penalty, or some sort of mental hiccup that slows down the Irish offense or gives their opponent a break.

Statistics show that Notre Dame is not a disciplined team. The Irish commit an average of 6.9 penalties for 60.9 yards per game. On the flip side, Navy is far more controlled; the Midshipmen are the least penalized team in the nation, committing just 3.6 penalties per game.

Compounding the problem, Notre Dame frequently “plays down” to an inferior opponent’s talent level. Four of Notre Dame’s victories have been decided by seven points or less against teams over which the Irish had a clear talent advantage.

This week the Irish face a Navy team that is efficient with the ball and does not make mental mistakes. Should the Irish make silly errors and “play down” to Navy, they will be in danger of losing the game.

Prediction

Notre Dame’s improving rush defense keeps the Navy triple-option attack under 200 yards for the game. The Midshipmen will struggle to score as Navy does not have enough offensive balance to attack Notre Dame’s poor pass defense.

Floyd makes his presence felt in his return, catching a touchdown pass for the Irish. The Notre Dame offense will have a full complement of skill players for the first time since September, and the Midshipmen will be unable to keep pace.

Score: Notre Dame 31, Navy 17

Photo Courtesy of Notre Dame Sports Information

Big Ten Conference Open Preview: Spoiler Alerts

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

When was this torch officially passed, the one that said, “Oh, we’re really good, but it just doesn’t show up in the records for our teams because they beat each other up in conference play”, from the Big Ten to the SEC? Isn’t it interesting how the Big Ten was ONCE considered so tough near the top that we excused conference losses because the competition was that deep? Contrast to nowadays where pundits dismiss the Big Ten by stating that the teams at the top lose to their rivaled foes because the conference is so weak. Certainly the last few years have been plagued by a lack of national attention (beyond Ohio State), and the only real exception I would argue was 2006 when number one Ohio State hosted and defeated number two Michigan in The Game, essentially knocking the Wolverines out of the National Title game, despite a one-loss Florida sliding in place (of course it didn’t help that Florida eventually went on to dismantle the Buckeyes. But let’s forget that for the moment.).

Nonetheless, we come across a make-or-break weekend right off the bat for the conference elite where only time will tell if this week was tough-versus-tough or meek-versus-meek. In the pre-season I dubbed this the “spoiler alert” weekend where the underdogs have a decent chance of wreaking havoc on the favorites:

Iowa at Penn State: I don’t want to get in the way of the importance of this game early in the season. Although Penn State can’t erase their sole conference loss from last year, they can send a message early and convince doubters that the team has patched up the cracks in their units, namely power rushing and unproven pass defense. Iowa has recovered nicely from the opening day scare against Northern Iowa. As important as the notches in the win column is the development of their offense. Shonn Greene is missed in the backfield thus far (3.8 yards/carry), but the Hawkeyes are still managing to put points on the board (26 points/game). What to watch for: Make no mistake that the best units on the field for both teams will be their defenses. Penn State has given up only 20 points in three games and is yet to surrender a rushing touchdown. The huge question marks, however, is the health of linebackers Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman (Lee is unlikely to play and Bowman is probable). The Hawkeyes have been brilliant stopping aerial attacks, which have only completed 48 percent passing and 5.1 yards/attempt. The big turnover killed Penn State’s chances last year and Iowa looks to be ball-hawking thus far (six interceptions, two fumbles). As this will be defense versus defense, the key to the game will be which offense escapes making the big mistake. Look for the ability of Penn State’s Daryll Clark to be the playmaking quarterback while looking for Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi to be the protector of the ball, limiting big plays by the Nittany Lions’ defense.
Prediction: Home team wins in the rocking Whitehouse. Penn State 24, Iowa 13

Illinois at Ohio State: The injury bug has seemed to nest and multiply within the Champaign community. Quarterback Juice Williams, receiver Arrelious Benn and linebacker Martez Wilson (out for the year) have all lost significant playing time in this young season. Losing Wilson is back-breaking for the defense that has given up a whopping 680 yards passing between Missouri and Illinois St. Against a quality opponent in Missouri, Williams was mediocre with 179 yards and one interception (albeit without Benn for most of the game), and the Illinois State game proves nothing as the team thrived despite Williams’ absence. The week off with a bye certainly helped. For the Buckeyes, they brushed up nicely ripping Toledo with a 38-0 shutout. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor showcased his athletic abilities, finally eclipsing 100 yards rushing. I say finally, because this should be at least a threat for every opponent trying to gameplan against the Buckeyes. What to watch for: The quarterbacks. This is somewhat obvious and a safe call, but the best player on both teams happens to be the guy holding the ball after every snap. I am unsettled by Pryor’s two interceptions last week (he hasn’t had an interception-free game yet this year and is one behind Purdue’s Joey Elliott for forking the ball over to the other team through the air the most in the conference). On the flip-side, Pryor leads the Big Ten in total offense (263 total yards/game). With Williams healthy, the outcome of the game will undoubtedly come down to which athlete does the most damage.
Prediction: Ohio State pitched a shutout last week and has seemed to shaken the cob-webs from their home loss to USC two weeks ago. Illinois is still settling into the season with the discontinuity brought about from injuries.
Ohio State 33, Illinois 21

Notre Dame at Purdue: The Fighting Irish (2-1) march in to West Lafayette after escaping a last second drive by Michigan State last week. Notre Dame looks to be quickly evolving with the loss of wide receiver Michael Floyd on the outside and the addition of a more determined rushing attack lead by Armando Allen. Allen (23-for 115 yards and one touchdown last week) has strung together back-to-back 100 yard rushing games (both against Big Ten foes), something escaping his early career. In fact, the only game he rushed over 73 yards last year was against, well, Purdue and he went bananas (17-for-134 yards, one touchdown). Purdue (1-2) is already reeling after a tough loss to Northern Illinois last week, tallying their second loss in as many weeks. The big alarm here is surrendering 454 total yards, 270 of them on the ground. This also spelled a huge time-of-possession deficit of nearly 2:1 (18:20). What to watch for: Obviously I see this coming down to how well Purdue can stop Allen, who is not 100 percent nursing a sore ankle. Surprisingly I previewed Notre Dame without talking about Jimmy Clausen, but I guess I just did. But I feel that Charlie Weis has decided to balance out his offensive scheme by folding in more action from the backfield. Allen is rushing well and that will set up the play-action for wideout Golden Tate deep or tight end Kyle Rudolph over the top of the biting linebackers. If Purdue loses the time of possession battle again, that will spell disaster for a tiring defense playing against a potent offense like Notre Dame’s. To this end, I also expect Purdue to pound the ball themselves, as they are averaging 210 yards on the ground.
Prediction: Purdue hasn’t shown the defensive prowess to slow down anyone, so I don’t expect much of a change with a visit from the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame 34, Purdue 20

Michigan State at Wisconsin: What to watch for: Wisconsin’s 200 yards rushing per game behind tailbacks Zach Brown and John Clay versus the Spartans' stingy rush defense (87 yards/game, 2.8 yards/carry). If the Badgers stall rushing, fear not, Michigan State’s Achilles’ heel so far has been stopping talented quarterbacks. Can the Badgers’ signal caller Scott Tolzien carry the load if called upon? For Michigan State, their quarterback combination has been successful (eight touchdowns, one interception, converting the most first downs in the conference passing with 44). Also, penalties may come in to play–Michigan state opponents are tops in penalties committed (24 total, 76.7 yards/game) and Wisconsin is ninth in the conference in penalties committed (19 total, 61.7 yards/game)
Prediction: Michigan State 30, Wisconsin 27

Indiana at Michigan: What to watch for: Indiana leads the conference in three categories–kickoff returns (27.9 avergae), turnover margin (plus three) and sacks against (one, for one yard loss). In fact, if there were a sack margin (sacks for – sacks against) Indiana would be tops with a +8 (followed by Michigan State at +7). Defensive ends Jammie Kilrew and Greg Middleton are as good as it gets as a duo off the edge (Can Tate Forcier be more consistent in his crash-reads of one of the ends? This may be a very intriguing individual offense-defense match-up). Michigan’s offensive line is credible, but suffered a big loss with an injury to center David Molk. So the battle in trenches should be the marquee for the match-up in Ann Arbor. If Michigan’s quarterbacks find more time looking up at the sky from ground, the Hoosiers may be able to hang tough. I am tremendously skeptical of that fact considering the team speed and athleticism heavily tilted towards Michigan.
Prediction: Michigan 28, Indiana 10

Minnesota at Northwestern: What to watch for: I was looking forward to this game during the pre-season because of the potential both squads posed heading in to the season. But after disappointing losses last week for both teams, the luster has worn just a bit. Northwestern’s gunslinger Mike Kafka has filled in nicely for the graduated C.J. Bacher, completing 75 percent of his passes for almost 250 yards/game (second in the Big Ten), with a conference leading 164.9 passing efficiency (which includes some statistical combination of blue moons, green diamonds and purple horseshoes). He’s managed to distribute the ball evenly amongst his receiving corps as four wideouts have hauled in at least 10 receptions so far. For the Gophers, they have also celebrated a strong passing attack, although quarterback Adam Weber has again fallen in love with senior receiver Erick Decker (27 receptions, 415 yards, two touchdowns). Will this game be a shootout? I doubt it; I feel that the Gophers are begrudgingly trying to prove they can play smashmouth football by running right at their opponents and failing. (Dead last in the conference with 85.7 yards/game).
Prediction: Northwestern is coming in with a better defense, which will again expose Minnesota’s one-sided offense. Northwestern 17, Minnesota 9

Photos Courtesy of Mark Selders/Penn State Athletic Communications & Michigan State Athletic Communications

Game Preview: Notre Dame @ Michigan

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

Last year, I suggested that the Notre-Michigan rivalry was far from dead, which was received about as well as a wet ball on a punt return for the Wolverines. But here we are, looking at this year’s match-up as a tell-all for who might be in BCS contention this year. Has the hype begun to over-inflate worse than the American dollar? Obviously, yes…but even if it is after only one game, both teams look like they are ready to put on perhaps the best, or at least most intriguing, show of the week.

When Notre Dame has the ball

Being on this side of the rivalry, it’s very hard to ignore the potential this year’s Fighting Irish has heaving the ball down the field. Albeit against WAC opponents and reaching back to last year’s Hawaii Bowl, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen has combined for 37-for-44 passing (84 percent), 716 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two starts. The bread and butter for Clausen and company is stretching the field vertically with Michael Floyd (last week averaged 47.3 yards/catch and scored three times) and Golden Tate (19.7 yards/catch last week). Look for them to match up with Michigan’s heralded junior cornerback Donovan Warren and upcoming sophomore Boubacar Cissoko. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, who's Orange upset the Irish in South Bend last season, is installing an attacking approach on all levels of the defense, demonstrated nicely in the Wolverines lock down of Western Michigan’s NFL prospect Tim Hiller, who finished 22-for-38 for 258 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. This newfound aggression, however, led to several Michigan mistakes in the secondary last week, including multiple pass interference calls on Warren, and a horrible bite from the secondary on a long play-action pass, leading to the Broncos only score. Michigan faces a serious upgrade in Notre Dame’s receiving corps, which also includes five-star tight end Kyle Rudolph (6-6, 260). Rudolph finished last week as the second-leading receiver with four grabs and a touchdown. Expect him to be matched up against an undersized opponent in Stevie Brown (6-0, 211), now playing the hybrid linebacker/safety position.

If I were calling the shots for Notre Dame, that is, if I were to score a coaching internship, I would line up in 11 formations (one running back, one tight end, three receivers). Michigan showed a lack of depth in their cornerbacks–when Cissoko went down with an injury last week, Hiller had success passing. Cissoko’s replacement, red-shirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, did not have a good opening day, looking lost in coverage. I would then stretch the field on the outside and counter Michigan’s aggressiveness with double moves and play-action. With the defense stretched, Rudolph and their third receiver (possibly Deion Walker?) should be open all day and in mismatches. Michigan’s safety position has not been solid since Ernie Shazor in 2004, and Michigan is working with inexperience back there with Troy Woolfolk and Michael Williams.

When Michigan has the ball

I think the two people who forgot that true freshmen were starting for the Wolverines were the freshmen themselves–Dernard “Shoelaces” Robinson and Tate Forcier. They played about as well as anyone could have asked, combining for 197 yards passing, 111 yards rushing and four touchdowns. The positive signs after week one were 1) surpassing their game-high rushing total of 2008 on opening day with 242 yards and 2) winning the turnover battle with a +two margin. Expect Michigan to continue to shuffle in speed and playmakers, especially with wide receiver Junior Hemmingway (five receptions, 103 yards, two touchdowns) listed as questionable. Greg Mathews must step up at the X on the outside if Hemmingway is unavailable. If Brandon Minor can return to the backfield, he will only add to a stable of backs loaded with game-breaking potential. I would expect Michigan to establish the run with a mixture of Carlos Brown, Minor, and Kevin Grady between the tackles, complemented by Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, the slots and the quarterbacks stretching the field horizontally. Notre Dame wreaked havoc on a Nevada offense that is traditionally solid, limiting them to 149 yards passing and two interceptions. The advantage Michigan would seem to have would be their speed and playmaking ability on the ground. I don’t suspect a repeat performance by Forcier with the aerial attack, as Notre Dame’s secondary is solid and augmented by the zone blitzing scheme of a John Tenuta defense.

Prediction The keys to the game for Michigan are to contain Notre Dame’s passing game, to control the offense on the ground and limit quarterback mistakes. This will be a fun one for everyone to watch, but in the end, not so fun for those pulling for the maize and blue.
Notre Dame 41, Michigan 35