CFI Preview: Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh

Heinz Field, Saturday, 8:00PM ET, ABC

Overview

Charlie Weis returns to the site of his first college coaching victory when Notre Dame travels to Pittsburgh Saturday night to take on the Panthers at Heinz Field.

Much has changed for Notre Dame and Pittsburgh over the past five seasons. Weis and the Fighting Irish got off to a flying start, reaching a BCS game in each of his first two seasons at the helm.

The next three years have not been as kind. Notre Dame finished 3-9 in 2007 and 7-6 in 2008. The Irish had high hopes coming into this season but have fallen to 6-3 after last week’s 23-21 defeat to Navy. It was the first time Notre Dame has lost consecutive home games to the Midshipmen since 1961 and 1963.

Dave Wannstedt made his college head coaching career against Weis and Notre Dame in 2005. Unlike the Fighting Irish, Pittsburgh struggled initially under their new coach. After going 16-19 through Wannstedt’s first three years, the Panthers are 17-5 since.

The university’s patience with Wannstedt has paid off: The Panthers are ranked in the top ten of a national poll (#8 in the AP) for the first time since 1982, Dan Marino’s senior season.

This year’s game will feature plenty of offensive firepower for both teams. Pittsburgh is led by quarterback Bill Stull, freshman running back Dion Lewis, tight end Dorin Dickerson and receiver Jonathan Baldwin.

Notre Dame has quarterback Jimmy Clausen and two of the best receivers in college football: Golden Tate and Michael Floyd.

With so many offensive weapons for both teams, this primetime match-up could very well be a shoot-out.

Keys for a Pittsburgh Victory

1) Win the First Quarter: Pittsburgh’s home crowd will be fired-up when the ball is finally kicked-off shortly after 8pm on Saturday night. The Panthers can put themselves in a great position to win the game if they can feed off the crowd’s energy and get off to a fast start.

The Panthers have done a great job in the first quarter this season, outscoring their opponents 71-38 in the opening period.

Pittsburgh will be able to dictate the game’s rhythm if they can get off to quick lead. Early points by the Panther offense will allow the Pitt coaching staff to give the Notre Dame defense a heavy dose of Lewis and the running attack. Defensively, Pittsburgh can speed rush Clausen because they know Notre Dame will abandon the run game once they fall behind.

Most importantly, an early lead for the Panthers will be a psychological challenge to the Irish. Under Weis, Notre Dame has struggled to recover after disappointing losses. In the wake of a four-overtime defeat to Pittsburgh a year ago, the Irish were never the same, limping through the rest of the regular season with losses to Boston College, Syracuse and USC.

Last week’s loss to Navy may be the toughest yet. Should Pittsburgh build an early first quarter lead, the Irish may not have the mental fortitude to stay in the game.

2) Maintain Efficiency: Pittsburgh has been an incredibly consistent team on both sides of the ball this season. Offensively, the Panthers are well-balanced, rushing for 18 touchdowns and passing for 19. Stull leads a much improved Panther passing attack and has surprised everyone this season with his play. The senior from Pittsburgh is fifth in the nation in passing efficiency.

The Panthers also maximize their scoring chances. Pittsburgh is 17th in the nation in red zone efficiency. The Panthers have scored 37 times in 41 red zone opportunities; 27 of those scores were touchdowns.

Leadership and consistency along the offensive and defensive lines have been vital to Pittsburgh’s success. Both lines are filled with juniors and seniors. Their starting offensive linemen have played well and stayed healthy—all five have started every game.

Defensively, the Panthers get after opposing quarterbacks and do not make a lot of mistakes. Pittsburgh is 19th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 17.1 points per game.

Pittsburgh’s efficiency is a great asset when matched-up against a Notre Dame team that is inconsistent and undisciplined.

Keys for a Notre Dame Victory

1) Protect Clausen: The Notre Dame offensive line must do a better job of protecting Clausen. Against an undersized and less talented Navy defensive unit a week ago, the Irish gave up two sacks, one of which occurred in the end zone giving Navy a safety and two critical points with just over a minute remaining in the game.

This week the Irish face one of the most productive defensive lines in the country. Pittsburgh leads in the nation in sacks with 38. The Panthers are able to get consistent pressure up front without blitzing much. This allows their linebackers to fall back into pass coverage.

Up front, the Panthers are led by a group of experienced and highly productive players. Senior defensive tackle Mick Williams leads the team with 13 tackles for loss. Defensive end Greg Romeus has 7.5 sacks on the year. The junior from Coral Springs, Florida has made 22 consecutive starts.

Pittsburgh is not the first team that Notre Dame will face this season that gets a lot of pressure on the quarterback without blitzing its linebackers. USC is also highly disruptive without blitzing and the Notre Dame offensive line struggled mightily against the Trojans, allowing USC to sack Clausen five teams. Luckily the Irish were able to rely on their highly talented junior quarterback to lead them back into that game and almost pull out the victory.

Notre Dame needs a great game from one of its most experienced units if they’re going to steal one from the Panthers. Clausen’s effectiveness is directly related to the amount of protection he gets from his offensive line.

2) Slow Down Dion Lewis: The freshman running back has been a revelation for Pittsburgh this season. Not highly recruited out of prep school in New Jersey, Lewis has exploded on the scene, already rushing for 1,176 yards. Lewis has gone over 100 rushing yards in six of Pittsburgh’s nine games.

The Irish have struggled defending the rush this season, allowing the opposition to average 148.8 yards per game on the ground.

Notre Dame defensive tackles Ethan Johnson and Ian Williams will play the key roles in defending the run. At times this season, they and the Irish defense have been very good against the run. Notre Dame held two effective running teams, USC and Boston College, to more than 75 yards below their season averages.

However just last week, the Irish gave up 348 yards on the ground to Navy.

Notre Dame cannot allow Lewis to gash them for huge chunks of yards. Pittsburgh is very balanced on offense and once the Panthers establish Lewis, they will utilize Stull and the physical Pittsburgh receivers in play-action passes.

Notre Dame needs to implement a game plan similar to the one they used against Boston College: neutralize the Panther running attack and try to make Pittsburgh one-dimensional.

Prediction

Pitt’s doubters say the Panthers haven’t beaten anybody. Ironically, their biggest victory to this point is probably over a Navy team that beat Notre Dame last week. The Panthers will be motivated, in primetime, to show the nation that they are for real.

Notre Dame seems to be at yet another crossroads. Will the Irish recover from a disappointing loss? Will Charlie Weis be the Notre Dame coach next season?

Regardless of Weis’ job security, Clausen is too good of a quarterback to allow the game to get beyond Notre Dame’s reach. Pittsburgh’s balance and consistency will win out, but Clausen will make the game close. The Panthers will score a touchdown in the final minutes to earn a dramatic victory.

Score: Pittsburgh 42, Notre Dame 41

Photos Courtesy of Notre Dame Sports Information, University of Pittsburgh

Big East Week 8 Preview

By CHRISTOPHER MOGOLLON

South Florida 26, Pittsburgh 23

Tune in to watch two very talented defensive lines, both with more than one future NFL prospect, most notable are Greg Romeus and George Selvie. This is a difficult game to call because both teams are very similar. Each have tremendous pass rushes, hard nosed linebackers but have offenses that are prone to stalling. An important match-up in this game will be the South Florida secondary versus the Pittsburgh receivers. Last week Jonathan Baldwin was held to only one catch and others like tight end Dorin Dickerson picked up the slack. South Florida has one of the Big East's top cornerbacks in Jerome Murphy, who had his ups and downs against Cincinnati a week ago. Keep an eye on the Murhpy-Baldwin battle. Two key difference makers are freshmen Dion Lewis from Pittsburgh and USF's B.J Daniels. The talented Daniels had his freshman moments against Cincinnati, but don't be surprised if the quarterback has a breakout game this week. The Pitt defense might not do as well against the scrambling youngster. Lewis, who leads the Big East in rushing, will test the Bulls' rush defense.

West Virginia 25, Connecticut 17

The Huskies are always a tough opponent. They’re gritty and possess a consistent rushing attack. With all that has happened this week there’s going to be a little extra fight in them. The status of quarterback Jarrett Brown, who suffered a concussion from last week’s game, is critical to the Mountaineers success. He’s likely to start but his status is a game-time decision. This game will probably close up to the very end but the difference maker is Noel Devine.

Syracuse 33, Akron 21

This is a huge game for this Syracuse football team. Last year they dropped a home game versus the Zips and it was the low point of the season. It’s a must win, not only to spare the embarrassment to losing two in row to Akron but to turn around the season. After a two-game winning streak the Orange followed up with a sloppy performance against South Florida and contest against West Virginia where everythign went wrong. Off a bye week, the team should be prepared for this one. Mike Williams is quietly having an All-American caliber season leading the conference with 712 yards and 45 receptions and won’t face a defender who can cover him in this one. The defense has done a lot of shuffling especially on the defensive line, so it should be interesting to see how some of the lineup changes affect the unit plays.

Cincinnati 26, Louisville 14

Last year Cincinnati snapped a five-game losing streak to the Cardinals. Look for Cincy to make it two in row in this battle of former Conference USA programs. Defensively, the Bearcats has improved and are continuing to get better each week. Linebacker Andre Revels and cornerback Drew Fey have been playing well of late with senior safety Aaron Webster. Quarterback Tony Pike is questionable but that shouldn’t stop the Bearcats from remaining undefeated, at least not this week.

Last week: 3-1, Season 35-6

Photos Courtesy of USF Athletics Communications, Syracuse University Athletics

Big East - Week Two Preview

By CHRSTOPHER MOGOLLON - BIG EAST INSIDER

This week’s theme for the Big East is re-matches–four teams are playing out of conference opponents that they played a year ago. For Connecticut, Syracuse and West Virginia it’s an opportunity to avenge losses. Still, with conference play weeks away, the majority of this Saturday’s games will be tune-ups.

West Virginia 32, East Carolina 21: There’s no doubt the Mountaineers will be looking for revenge this week at home after last year‘s beat down at East Carolina. Motivation and Morgantown aside, Noel Devine will be too much for the Pirates defense in the end. East Carolina’s offense, led by senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney, will put up some points…but not another upset.

North Carolina 23, Connecticut 14: It’s no secret that Connecticut has an aggressive rushing attack led by sophomore Jordan Todman. But the Tar Heels will be gearing up to stop the run and force Huskies quarterback Zach Frazer to beat them, and he won’t. North Carolina has some quarterback questions themselves, but their talented defenders will secure victory in East Hartford.

Penn State 36, Syracuse 20: It’s nice to see this rivalry renewed—it’s just too bad it comes during the dark days of Syracuse football. Sure, there were some positives from last week’s loss to Minnesota but the same problems on the offensive line and a lack of offensive skill players leaves them with little chance of seeing the light in Happy Valley. Watch how Syracuse’s defensive line plays against the fifth-ranked team in the country, especially pro prospect Arthur Jones and the new kid on the block, true freshman Brandon Sharpe. If they are able to hang around in this one, it will be the Orange’s defense that allows them to do so.

Pittsburgh 32, Buffalo 14: The match-up between Buffalo wide-out Naaman Roosevelt and Pittsburgh’s Aaron Berry will be more compelling then the actual game. Last season Roosevelt finished with more receptions than Michael Crabtree, more yards than Jeremy Maclin, and more touchdowns than Marshawn Gilyard. This will be a great battle between two pro prospects. Player Spotlight: With Jonathan Baldwin’s size, how can he not have a big game in Buffalo?

South Florida 28, Western Kentucky 7: The Hilltoppers are currently on a nine-game losing streak and haven’t defeated a FBS school since 2007. The Bulls could drop the ball, look ahead, or not show up and still win this week. Freshman Watch: Lindsey Lamar is a speedy all-purpose back who sees action both as a running back and receiver. A breakout game versus Western Kentucky is not out of the question.

Cincinnati 64, SE Missouri State 14: And you thought Cincinnati looked good last week? Yikes, this one will get ugly.

Rutgers 38, Howard 7: This is a good chance for Rutgers to get last week’s loss out of their heads and out of the minds of the Scarlet Knights faithful. A blowout win is always the best way to turn the page. True freshman quarterback Tom Savage makes his debut as a starter.

Last Week’s Record: 7-0 (kind of, I had Cincinnati only winning by three)

Photos Courtesy of WVU Sports Communication

CFI Countdown: #22 Pittsburgh Panthers

2008 Record: 9-4 (Big East: 5-2)
Bowl Game: Lost Sun Bowl to Oregon St. 3-0
Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Stadium: Heinz Field (65,050)
Head Coach: Dave Wannstedt
Overall: 25-23 (5th season)
@ Pittsburgh: 25-23 (5th season)
Link to Pitt Football Page

After three very disappointing non-bowl seasons to begin the Dave Wannstedt era, the Panthers made their first bowl since the 2004 season. Now it’s time to win one (last bowl win came in 2002) and who knows…maybe even a conference crown. Pittsburgh has one Big East title (shared in 2004) since joining the conference in 1993 and has not reached double figures in victories since 1981, when they rolled off the third of three straight 11-1 seasons.

When the Panthers Have the Ball

Offensive Coordinator: Frank Cignetti, Jr. (1st season)
Scheme: Pro Style
Starters Returning: Seven
Key Losses: RB LeSean McCoy, WR Derek Kinder, OG C. J. Davis, RB LaRod Stephens-Howling, FB Conredge Collins

Senior Bill Stull and junior Pat Bostick have taken most of the reps at quarterback the past two seasons. Neither has played well, much less taken hold of the job when the opportunity has presented itself. Stull appears to be the starter heading into 2009 and is respected for his leadership and intangibles. Bostick is considered the more physically gifted of the two, but has been shaky in the decision-making department. Regardless of who wins the job, he would be wise to throw the ball up to 6’ 5” sophomore Jonathan Baldwin as much as possible. They also have excellent depth at tight end in seniors Nate Byham and Dorin Dickerson, both capable contributors in the passing game. What the Panthers hope to replicate is the production they received from tailback LeSean “Shady” McCoy. Their most talented runners are a pair of freshmen, Dion Lewis and Chris Burns. Four starters return to what should be a solid offensive line, led by left tackle Jason Pinkston. If the line and the offense as a whole are to take the next step, two highly-touted sophomores will need to step up—Lucas Nix, who is expected to start at right tackle, and Chris Jacobson, who is competing for playing time at guard.

Top Pro Prospects: 1) WR Jonathan Baldwin (SO), 2) TE Nate Byham (SR), 3) OT Jason Pinkston (JR)

When the Other Team Has the Ball

Defensive Coordinator: Phil Bennett (2nd season)
Scheme: Multiple 4-3
Starters Returning: Seven
Key Losses: LB Scott McKillop, FS Eric Thatcher, LB Austin Ransom, DT Rashaad Duncan

It all starts up front for the Panthers defensively. Defensive end Greg Romeus showed flashes as a sophomore and is poised to break out this season using his speed and athleticism to get into the backfield. He also knows how to use his length—he blocked three of Pitt’s 10 blocked kicks. On the opposite side Jabaal Sheard got his hands on seven passes, making his share of impact plays. Keeping defenses honest will be senior tackle Mick Williams who can be a force in his own right. They must replace two starters at the next level, including defensive leader Scott McKillop, but in sophomore SAM Greg Williams, they add another dynamic piece to their front seven. Both starting corners are back, including senior Aaron Berry, who will make opposing quarterbacks think twice about throwing his way. As a unit, the secondary recorded 16 interceptions in 2008 and should be among the best in the country once again.

Top Pro Prospects: 1) DE Greg Romeus (JR), 2) CB Aaron Berry (SR), 3) LB Greg Williams (SO)

The Schedule

With Youngstown St., Buffalo (on the road), and Navy to kick off the schedule, the Panthers face a pair of 2008 bowl teams but should get off to a quick start. A game to circle is their trip to Raleigh to face the Wolfpack—a win there and Pitt could be headed towards a special season. They host Notre Dame in an out of conference game as well. As for the Big East race, they play South Florida and defending champ Cincinnati at home, with visits to Rutgers and border rival West Virginia. They play the Bearcats and Mountaineers in the final two weeks of the season in contests that could decide the conference.

Pivotal Point

It begins and ends with their quarterback play. Last season as a group they combined for 2,356 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, while completing just 55.9 percent of their passes. That inaccuracy would begin to explain how a nine-win team that finished second in their conference was held scoreless in their bowl game. As a freshman in 2007, Bostick was the primary starter but was on shaky ground most of the way, throwing eight touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Stull stepped in last season and was not much better—throwing nine scoring strikes and 10 interceptions (Bostick’s 2008 ratio was one-to-four). Slightly above average play would go a long way.

CFI Final Analysis

Look for the 2009 Panthers to win nine or even 10 games, win the Big East conference, and make their second trip to a BCS Bowl. It will not only be the school’s best season under Coach Wannstedt—an alum who was brought here to bring back the glory days—but maybe their best season in over 25 years. They’re not there yet, but they have turned the corner in Western Pennsylvania.

College Football Insiders Top 25 Countdown:
The Next 25 (26-50) Plus 18 Bowl Teams
#25 West Virginia Mounainteers
#24 Tennessee Volunteers
#23 Clemson Tigers

Contact Daniel Mogollon via email dan@collegefootballinsiders.com

Photo Credit: University of Pittsburgh

Freshman Spotlight: Big East: Jonathan Baldwin

By Brian Vornberg

In the world of college football, it’s not often that you find a 5-star rated tight end prospect. Heck, even the 5-star receivers are hard to come by. But this year was different. Jonathan Baldwin, a tight end prospect out of Aliquippa, PA, proved that tight ends deserve some serious attention.

Baldwin, who was selected to play in this past January’s Army All-American game in San Antonio, Texas, is not just a multi-dimensional tight end, but a multi-dimensional all around player. In fact, in that same All-American game, Baldwin caught a 46-yard touchdown pass from Alabama quarterback to be Star Jackson with outstretched arms that was so reminiscent of Larry Fitzgerald, it was almost scary. The guy’s paws are enormous. He could have chosen basketball just as easily as he chose football, but football is obviously Baldwin’s passion (he was first team all-state in Pennsylvania for basketball as well). He also could have gone to schools with storied histories like Miami, Florida, USC, or Michigan. However, he stayed close to home and will add more talent to Dave Wannstedt’s already stellar recruiting class.

In addition to the potential to dominate in the red zone at 6'6" and 233 pounds, Baldwin also possesses 4.4-speed and the ability to get open. Jeremy Crabtree, an analyst for Rivals.com, said that Baldwin is “one of the top athletes in the country.” He reminds football fans of a faster Martin Rucker, the former Missouri tight end who will now play on Sundays. Baldwin is also a vastly underrated blocker, a rarity for most tight ends entering the college football ranks these days.

Keep in mind, there is a lot of pressure being placed on Baldwin to come in and perform as evidenced by the early comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald, probably the best Pitt wide receiver of all-time. He does have a couple of really good veteran wide receivers around him to help ease the transition and if talking to him as I did in San Antonio is any indication of his true character, he’ll handle the pressure just fine. Big East defensive backs, beware.