Big Ten Preview: Iowa at Wisconsin

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

The Iowa Hawkeyes (6-0, 2-0) look to storm Camp Randall Stadium and the hosting Wisconsin Badgers (5-1, 2-1) in a pivotal match-up atop the Big Ten leaderboard. Last week propelled the Hawkeyes further up the rankings with a close victory over Michigan (30-28), while the Badgers suffered their first loss of the season in a mistake-ridden showing in Columbus versus the Buckeyes, falling 31-13. Despite the Badgers losing control of their own destiny with their loss to Ohio State, they can still finish with a share of the title if they win out. Iowa’s destiny is still in hand, already disposing of 5-1 Penn State just three weeks ago and reserving a showdown with the 5-1 Buckeyes in the Horseshoe November 14th.

The Hawkeyes have already tallied quality victories (at Penn State, Arizona, Michigan), so approaching the midway point of the season we have a decent sense of Iowa’s ability to make a significant conference/BCS splash. On the contrary, Wisconsin’s margin of victory (excluding the mighty Wofford), has been just 5.5 over Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Michigan State and Minnesota. Further, last week’s implosion on national television versus the Buckeyes did not help critics’ opinions of the team from Madison, who have now put themselves on an uphill slope towards tops of the Big Ten.

Therefore, it makes complete sense that I see Wisconsin handing the Hawkeyes their first loss of the season. Here’s why:

1. Michigan found a hole in Iowa’s defense and the Badgers will follow suit – Don’t think the Badgers weren’t happy to see that Michigan found great success pounding the ball versus Iowa’s stingy defense. Although the Hawkeyes proved why they have the Big Ten’s best pass defense (171 yards/game), holding the Wolverines to just 124 yards through the air, they almost squandered a nine-point lead while the Wolverines decided to rush the ball late in the fourth quarter…successfully (finishing with 195 yards on the ground). Iowa’s rushing defense sits sixth in the conference (134 yards/game). To boot, the Hawkeyes faced the number two rushing offense last week in Michigan (197 yards/game) at home and now get to visit the conference-leading rushing attack in the Badgers (200 yards/game). Which leads to an extension of point one:

2. Michigan’s hard-nose, downhill style of Brandon Minor (6-1, 216) will be topped by John Clay’s (6-1, 248) – Of course you can’t compare across teams and schemes, but it was became obvious that Michigan wore down Iowa’s defense behind the legs of Minor, who finished with 95 yards and two scores. Clay was contained nicely by Ohio State last week but leads the Big Ten in rushing yards/game (107) and touchdowns (seven) while splitting the workload with Zach Brown. You have to point to the recovery of injuries from the offensive line, which outside of the six sacks surrendered last week, looked like tops in the conference. So it seems like Iowa may have a harder time stopping the physical rushing style. To this point, Iowa shut down Penn State’s rushing attack (109 yards rushing allowed) against a weaker offensive line and shifty/speed backs in Evan Royster/Stephfon Green duo despite the Nittany Lions holding third place in rushing (189 yards/game).

3. Wisconsin is used to seeing a tight end as a pivotal part of the offense – This will be a great match-up at the tight end position for the conference elite as Garrett Graham and Tony Moeaki will be showcased against each other. In just three games, Moeaki is tied for team lead in receptions (17) and possesses three of ten of the Hawkeyes receiving touchdowns. Moeaki was a Wolverine killer last week, which made quarterback Ricky Stanzi’s play-action bootlegs infinitely more effective and eventually set up the run in the third quarter. But Wisconsin sees this every week in practice with Graham, who leads his team in receptions (27) and touchdowns (four, which is four of nine total team receiving touchdowns). The Badgers should be better prepared to stop Stanzi’s number one option.

4. Iowa is 2-4 at Camp Randall since 1997 (5-7 overall) – Home field has to count for something, right? I was at the 2007 contest between these two teams in Madison, and number nine ranked Wisconsin prevailed 17-13 (although then quarterback Jake Christensen barely overthrew a pass at the end of regulation to a wide-open receiver that could have stole the game, but I digress). Weather shouldn’t be a factor (high 30s, partly cloudy at game time), and it’s not a night game, but all-time on October 17ths, Iowa has won just four out of 15 contests and is winless against the Badgers (1959 – lost 25-16, 1964 – lost 31-21).

Final Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Iowa 20

Photo Courtesy of Iowa Sports Information

Game Preview: Notre Dame @ Michigan

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

Last year, I suggested that the Notre-Michigan rivalry was far from dead, which was received about as well as a wet ball on a punt return for the Wolverines. But here we are, looking at this year’s match-up as a tell-all for who might be in BCS contention this year. Has the hype begun to over-inflate worse than the American dollar? Obviously, yes…but even if it is after only one game, both teams look like they are ready to put on perhaps the best, or at least most intriguing, show of the week.

When Notre Dame has the ball

Being on this side of the rivalry, it’s very hard to ignore the potential this year’s Fighting Irish has heaving the ball down the field. Albeit against WAC opponents and reaching back to last year’s Hawaii Bowl, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen has combined for 37-for-44 passing (84 percent), 716 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last two starts. The bread and butter for Clausen and company is stretching the field vertically with Michael Floyd (last week averaged 47.3 yards/catch and scored three times) and Golden Tate (19.7 yards/catch last week). Look for them to match up with Michigan’s heralded junior cornerback Donovan Warren and upcoming sophomore Boubacar Cissoko. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, who's Orange upset the Irish in South Bend last season, is installing an attacking approach on all levels of the defense, demonstrated nicely in the Wolverines lock down of Western Michigan’s NFL prospect Tim Hiller, who finished 22-for-38 for 258 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. This newfound aggression, however, led to several Michigan mistakes in the secondary last week, including multiple pass interference calls on Warren, and a horrible bite from the secondary on a long play-action pass, leading to the Broncos only score. Michigan faces a serious upgrade in Notre Dame’s receiving corps, which also includes five-star tight end Kyle Rudolph (6-6, 260). Rudolph finished last week as the second-leading receiver with four grabs and a touchdown. Expect him to be matched up against an undersized opponent in Stevie Brown (6-0, 211), now playing the hybrid linebacker/safety position.

If I were calling the shots for Notre Dame, that is, if I were to score a coaching internship, I would line up in 11 formations (one running back, one tight end, three receivers). Michigan showed a lack of depth in their cornerbacks–when Cissoko went down with an injury last week, Hiller had success passing. Cissoko’s replacement, red-shirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, did not have a good opening day, looking lost in coverage. I would then stretch the field on the outside and counter Michigan’s aggressiveness with double moves and play-action. With the defense stretched, Rudolph and their third receiver (possibly Deion Walker?) should be open all day and in mismatches. Michigan’s safety position has not been solid since Ernie Shazor in 2004, and Michigan is working with inexperience back there with Troy Woolfolk and Michael Williams.

When Michigan has the ball

I think the two people who forgot that true freshmen were starting for the Wolverines were the freshmen themselves–Dernard “Shoelaces” Robinson and Tate Forcier. They played about as well as anyone could have asked, combining for 197 yards passing, 111 yards rushing and four touchdowns. The positive signs after week one were 1) surpassing their game-high rushing total of 2008 on opening day with 242 yards and 2) winning the turnover battle with a +two margin. Expect Michigan to continue to shuffle in speed and playmakers, especially with wide receiver Junior Hemmingway (five receptions, 103 yards, two touchdowns) listed as questionable. Greg Mathews must step up at the X on the outside if Hemmingway is unavailable. If Brandon Minor can return to the backfield, he will only add to a stable of backs loaded with game-breaking potential. I would expect Michigan to establish the run with a mixture of Carlos Brown, Minor, and Kevin Grady between the tackles, complemented by Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, the slots and the quarterbacks stretching the field horizontally. Notre Dame wreaked havoc on a Nevada offense that is traditionally solid, limiting them to 149 yards passing and two interceptions. The advantage Michigan would seem to have would be their speed and playmaking ability on the ground. I don’t suspect a repeat performance by Forcier with the aerial attack, as Notre Dame’s secondary is solid and augmented by the zone blitzing scheme of a John Tenuta defense.

Prediction The keys to the game for Michigan are to contain Notre Dame’s passing game, to control the offense on the ground and limit quarterback mistakes. This will be a fun one for everyone to watch, but in the end, not so fun for those pulling for the maize and blue.
Notre Dame 41, Michigan 35