CFI: CONNECTICUT & CINCINNATI RIDE THE TURNOVER WAVE

BY BROCK MURPHY
CFI COLUMNIST

At the beginning of the season, most fans of the Big East discussed West Virginia, Louisville and Rutgers as the likely candidates to win the conference. The more learned fans knew to give South Florida a significant chance at making a dent in the season’s conference standings.

Outside of their own insiders, few if any fans considered Cincinnati or relative newcomer Connecticut as legitimate challengers for the conference crown.

Yet, as the tenth week of the season approaches, UConn is only team with an undefeated conference record while Cincinnati is tied for third in the conference’s standings.

They play each other this Saturday afternoon (3:30PM EST) in Cincinnati.

So, what’s the story behind these two teams? Turnovers. Cincinnati and Connecticut are ranked 3rd and 4th in the nation, respectively, in turnover margin.

Cincinnati has forced no fewer than 34 turnovers this season (eight, alone, last weekend against South Florida). No other team is even close. Four teams (Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Kansas and Michigan) are a distant second, with 27 turnovers gained.

Most of the Bearcats’ turnover productivity is courtesy of their pass defense, which has produced more interceptions than any other team in the nation – twenty-one (21).
But, guess which team is #2? You guessed it. Connecticut.

And while Cincinnati has thrown nine interceptions of its own this year, UConn has thrown only four.

In the final analysis, Cincinnati’s defense has produced 11 more turnovers than that of Connecticut while the Huskies’ offense have been far more careful, giving up nine fewer turnovers than the Bearcats this season.

But, it is all about turnovers? Of course, each team has more to offer than dominance in turnover margin.

On offense, Cincinnati’s Ben Mauk is far more efficient (18th, nationally) than UConn’s Tyler Lorenzen (42nd). Still, while Lorenzen’s game against South Florida was not utterly efficient (135 rating), it contained a curious blend of efficiency. While completing fewer than half of his passes (10 of 21), he managed to turn two of his 10 completions into scores.

Of course, every offense strives for balance and UConn’s search has been complicated by injuries. Sophomore Donald Brown (5-10, 213) was the starter when 2007 began but he injured his ankle four weeks ago, missed the Virginia game (the only loss suffered by the Huskies this year – and by just one point at that), and saw his carries limited upon his return to health due to the subsequent emergence of fellow-sophomore

Andre Dixon (6-1, 187).
Yet, against Rutgers, Dixon injured himself after 10 carries, opening the door for Brown’s return to the lineup. Twenty-four carries, 154 yards and one score later, Brown upstaged former Heisman candidate Ray Rice (110 yards) and made a strong bid for a return to the starting lineup.

It was Brown’s first 100-yard performance of the season and it was a bit of an ambush on a Scarlet Knight defense which likely prepared for Dixon’s style and tendencies; not Brown’s. That could be important this weekend. Brown is on film. The Bearcats, who sport the nation’s 20th-ranked rushing defense (107 ypg) will be ready for him.

When Cincinnati has the ball, the pressure will be placed firmly on the shoulders of senior QB Ben Mauk. Having yet to throw more than one interception in any game this year, he has kept mistakes to a minimum. Still, he does not have a game-changer at tailback to assure his unit of balance. In fact, last weekend, his 75 rushing yards tied South Florida QB Matt Grothe as the game’s leading rusher.

Without offensive balance, Mauk will have his hands full against the Husky defense. Ranked 12th in the nation in efficiency, UConn’s stop unit allows only a 58 percent completion rate and less than 10 yards per completion. They have also picked off 19 passes this year while giving up only six TD’s.

No team has thrown more than one TD against the Huskies’ defense this season. UConn’s last two opponents, South Florida and Rutgers (whose QB, Mike Teel, is the 23rd-rated passer in the NCAA), failed to log a scoring toss.

In just his ninth season as a head coach, Connecticut’s Randy Edsall has 49 wins. None of them have been against Cincinnati. The Huskies are 0-3 against the Bearcats. The Husky nation would like nothing better than to have Edsall pick up his 50th career win on national television against a conference opponent they have never beaten before.

Photo Credit: Collegiate Images

CFI's TOP 25

1. Ohio St. Buckeyes (1); Record: 8-0 (4-0)
2. Boston College Eagles (3); Record: 7-0 (3-0)
3. LSU Tigers (4); Record: 7-1 (4-1)
4. Oklahoma Sooners (5); Record: 7-1 (3-1)
5. South Florida Bulls (2); Record: 6-1 (1-1)
6. Arizona St. Sun Devils (8); Record: 7-0 (4-0)
7. Southern California Trojans (10); Record: 6-1 (3-1)
8. Oregon Ducks (12); Record: 5-1 (2-1)
9. Missouri Tigers (14); Record: 6-1 (2-1)
10. Florida Gators (13); Record: 5-2 (3-2)
11. West Virginia Mountaineers (11); Record: 6-1 (1-1)
12. Kentucky Wildcats (7); Record: 6-2 (2-2)
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (6); Record: 6-2 (3-2)
14. California Golden Bears (9); Record: 5-2 (2-2)
15. Virginia Tech Hokies (15); Record: 6-1 (3-0)
16. Kansas Jayhawks (17); Record: 7-0 (3-0)
17. Hawaii Warriors (16); Record: 7-0 (4-0)
18. Auburn Tigers (18); Record: 5-3 (3-2)
19. Michigan Wolverines (23); Record: 6-2 (4-0)
20. Georgia Bulldogs (24); Record: 5-2 (3-2)
21. Texas Longhorns (21); Record: 6-2 (2-2)
22. Penn St. Nittany Lions (25); Record: 6-2 (3-2)
23. Alabama Crimson Tide (NR); Record: 5-2 (2-1)
24. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (NR); Record: 5-2 (2-1)
25. Virginia Cavaliers (NR); Record: 7-1 (4-0)

CFI: FROM THE NEWSLETTER #3

WHAT YOU MISSED: AN EXCERPT FROM LAST WEEK'S NEWSLETTER:



LSU @ KENTUCKY (October 13, 3:30, CBS): On the heels of last week this looks like a potential blowout…but in the words of Lee Corso…not so fast my friend. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but the Tigers are coming off an absolutely emotion-draining slugfest with the Gators, where they converted five fourth downs and needed every single one of them. Now they have to take on the Wildcats, a team who was shutdown by South Carolina, another LSU victim, and a team the Bayou Bengals beat 49-0 last season. Furthermore, LSU plays Auburn next week, the only team other than Florida to beat them last season. Can you say sandwich game? How about, "closer than they experts think."

Top Pro Prospect: Glen Dorsey (DT), Sr., LSU

Sleeper: Jacob Tamme (TE), Sr., Kentucky


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Photo Credit: SEC Sports Media Images

CFI: FROM THE NEWSLETTER #2

WHAT YOU MISSED: AN EXCERPT FROM LAST WEEK'S NEWSLETTER:

THE TEAM THAT CANNOT AFFORD TO LOOK BACK IS…Illinois Visiting Iowa (October 13, 12:00, ESPN2): The Illini have won two consecutive games against ranked opponents, knocking the Penn St. Nittany Lions right out of the polls and ending the nation’s longest winning streak when they “upset” the fifth ranked Wisconsin Badgers last week. Now they face a new challenge -- not believing their press clippings. They are 3-0 in the Big Ten, tied with Ohio St. atop the conference standings, while Iowa is in the Big Ten basement with a perfect record of their own (0-3). The Fighting Illini are the better team, but the Hawkeyes are not bereft of talent and I am not sure Illinois is ready to win this type of road game if they lose the focus they brought the last two weeks.


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Photo Credit: Collegiate Images

CFI: FROM THE NEWSLETTER #1

WHAT YOU MISSED: AN EXCERPT FROM LAST WEEK'S NEWSLETTER:


THE TEAM THAT MIGHT JUST GET EXPOSED THIS WEEK IS…Purdue Visiting Michigan (October 13, 12:00, Big Ten Network): We are not sure who the Boilermakers are…maybe Dennis Green is, but CFI is not. They are in a Big Ten jumble of several teams who believe they are the second best team in the conference behind Ohio St. Curtis Painter was having a great season until last week when he ran into the Buckeyes, as was Kory Sheets who saw his three-game streak of 100-yard games snapped by OSU. To be fair, Ohio St. has one of the staunchest defenses in the land, Michigan on the other hand has not been as tough to score on. A win and the Boilermakers can stay in the top 25 for another week and maybe for good…a poor showing and it may become clear that Purdue was just a product of their easy non-conference schedule.


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A CFI EXCLUSIVE: Q/A WITH BRIAN KELLY

Brian Kelly is in his first year as head coach at the University of Cincinnati. He enters this week with a record of 140-51-2, including a MAC Championship last season at Central Michigan, as well as back-to-back National Titles at Division II Grand Valley State in 2002 and 2003.

CFI: Hey Coach. So two games in you’re 2-0 with a pair of impressive victories. Would it be safe to assume you couldn’t be happier?
COACH KELLY: (Laughs) You’re talking to a football coach. We’re happy for about 20 minutes after the game and then we’re back to reality.
CFI: With new schemes being implemented would you say you are ahead of schedule in terms of progress?
COACH KELLY: I’d say that we’re doing some things that I didn’t think we could do this early in the year offensively. Defensively, I expected us to play very well. I think what’s surprised me defensively is how well we’ve taken the ball away.
CFI: How about the negative plays? Five plays and 16 tackles for a loss with 15 different players involved on those negative plays.

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