GOW: Las Vegas Bowl - BYU VS. Arizona

By ANDREW GARDA - PAC-10 INSIDER

December 20, 2008 * 8:00 * ESPN
Sam Boyd Stadium (71,500) *
Las Vegas, Nevada

THIS SEASON THE Pac-10 has squared up with the Mountain West Conference seven times with the MWC going an impressive 6-1. Included in that group is two wins by BYU (over UCLA and Washington), as well as a loss by Arizona (to New Mexico. Will the trend continue?

When the ‘Cats Have the Ball

Quarterback Willie Tuitama has had an outstanding year, throwing for 2,763 yards with 21 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He will face a BYU defense that can be scored on at times – the Cougars have allowed 32 or more points in four of their last six games. BYU has also had trouble pressuring and containing opposing quarterbacks, especially off the edges. This defense is not especially fast and that will also be an advantage for Wildcat running back Nic Grigsby. The sophomore back had his first 1,000-yard season and had an impressive 5.5 yards per carry average. Grigsby can move the chains and while he has not blown the opposition away, he is a threat and scored a touchdown in nine of twelve games. If he can get around the edges, or if the defense is caught over-committing, he could put together some big runs. An effective ground game will set up the Wildcats’ pass offense nicely. Even without it, Tuitama should be able to find his receivers against this defense, but with the run game rolling, the defense would open up more and couldn’t concentrate on simply one phase of Arizona’s offensive game. Tuitama tends to look most often for senior wideout Mike Thomas and like Grigsby and Tuitama, Arizona will need a good game from him if they are to win in the Las Vegas desert. They can also look to red zone target Rob Gronkowski, who leads the receiving corps with 10 touchdowns.

When the Cougs Have the Ball

This is BYU’s fourth consecutive trip to the Vegas Bowl and the Cougars have won the first three. If they want a fourth, they’ll need a big time performance from their star player… the guy they have depended upon all season long. That is, of course, quarterback Max Hall. Hall has been terrific this season, with 3,629 yards and 34 touchdowns with only 13 interceptions. He has thrown for more than 300 yards in three of his last four games, including a five-touchdown game against Colorado State. His favorite target is Austin Collie, who leads the nation with 118.25 receiving yards per game and has a total of 1,419 yards and 15 touchdowns. If the Wildcats are able to slow the Cougars through the air, they’ll still have to contend with the ground attack. While Harvey Unga isn’t quite having the success he did in 2007, he’s still had quite the season. His second consecutive 1,000-yard is supplemented by another 41 receptions and 303 yards through the air. BYU ranks 17th in the nation offensively and Arizona will be hard pressed to contain them, even with a defense which has not performed terribly. The Wildcats have some opportunistic players in their defensive squad and they have been able to grab a total of 15 interceptions, led by Trevin Wade’s four. Hall has turned the ball over on occasion, but not with such frequency that the Cougars should be worried. In all likelihood, the Cougars will just have too much firepower for the Wildcats.

Final Analysis

EXPECT AN EXPLOSIVE offensive showdown, with the Cougars continue their domination over the Pac-10 and winter their third straight bowl.

Inside the Numbers– Pass, Run & Catch:

Arizona Wildcats (7-5, 5-4)
Pass: Willie Tuitama – 2,763 yards, 21 touchdowns
Run: Nic Grigsby – 1,066 yards, 12 touchdowns
Catch: Mike Thomas – 796 yards, 5 touchdowns

Brigham Young Cougars (10-2, 6-2)
Pass: Max Hall – 3,629 yards, 34 touchdowns
Run: Harvey Unga – 1,061 yards, 10 touchdowns
Catch: Austin Collie – 1,419 yards, 15 touchdowns

The CFI Prediction: BYU 38, Arizona 27

Photo Credit: Jaren Wilkey, BYU

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THE BCS BUSTER SHOW - WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 19, 2008

Down the stretch we come as we preview BYU @ Utah and Ball St. @ Central Michigan.

SPECIAL GUESTS

Head Coach BRADY HOKE, Ball St.
Head Coach BUTCH JONES, Central Michigan
Head Coach GARY PATTERSON, TCU
WR AUSTIN COLLIE, BYU
RB JEREMY AVERY, Boise St.
TE JARED BRONSON, Central Washington

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Photo Credit: College Press Box (Utah)

CFI RANKINGS: #24 BYU COUGARS

2007 RECORD: 11-2; Mountain West: 8-0
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. UCLA 17-16
LOCATION: Provo, Utah
STADIUM: Lavell Edwards Stadium (64,045)
HEAD COACH: Bronco Mendenhall
OVERALL: 28-10 (3 seasons)
AT BYU: 28-10 (3 seasons)

In 2006, Utah crashed the BCS party. The Broncos of Boise St. broke through two years ago. Last year it was Hawaii that went big time bowling—could BYU be that team this year? The buzz around Provo and the rest of the nation is yes, they can! The Cougars went 11-2 for a second straight season, ending with a bowl win over a Pac-10 school each time (Oregon in 2006), but they are hoping for bigger and better things in 2008.

WHEN THE COUGS HAVE THE BALL

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Robert Anae (3rd Season)
OFFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 9
KEY LOSSES: Sete Aulai

The offense is stacked. QB Max Hall threw for 26 touchdowns and nearly 4,000 yards while leading the 14th ranked passing offense in the nation. His top targets are juniors WR Austin Collie and TE Dennis Pitta. Pitta is the prototypical BYU pass-catching tight end and Collie is one of those players with a knack for making the right play at the right time. Sophomore RB Harvey Unga was a revelation last season rushing for 1,227 yards and 13 scores, while adding another 655 yards and four TDs as a receiver (44 receptions). The skill players will be able to do what they do because of a stellar offensive line that returns four starters—they are experienced and tip the scales at over 1,600 pounds in total.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) OT Dallas Reynolds (SR), 2) OG Travis Bright (SR)

WHEN THE OTHER TEAM HAS THE BALL

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Jamie Hill (1st Season)
DEFENSIVE STARTERS RETURNING: 3
KEY LOSSES: Bryan Kehl, Kelly Poppinga, Corby Hodgkiss, Ben Criddle, Markell Staffieri, Quinn Gooch, Kayle Buchanan

If you’re wondering why the Cougars aren’t ranked higher (No. 17 in the Coaches Poll), you need look no further than a defense that has to replace eight starters including their entire secondary and six of their top eight tacklers—all of which had at least 50 stops. The defensive line should be fine with junior ends Jan Jorgenson (14 sacks, 20 tackles for a loss) and Ian Dulan returning, however, the defensive back eight (they run a 3-4 defense) is loaded with question marks. Coach Mendenhall has faith they will be fine, just like their offense was last season when they replaced most of the unit—we’re talking a wait and see approach.

TOP PROSPECTS: 1) DE Jan Jorgenson (JR), 2) LB David Nixon (SR)

THE SCHEDULE

To prove they are BCS-worthy they simply must play better against BCS opponents. Last season they dropped a week two contest at UCLA and two years ago, their two losses came at Arizona and at Boston College. This season, they play at Washington in week two then return home the following week to host UCLA. It won’t get easier for them in conference as they must make trips to Air Force, TCU and Utah in Mountain West play—all three were bowl teams in 2007.

PIVOTAL POINT

The defensive back eight: BYU will score, so how they fare in stopping their opponents will dictate how far they will go. They must break in four new starters in the secondary, but linebackers Bryan Kehl (4th round pick of the NY Giants) and Kelly Poppinga will be the toughest to replace—the duo combined for more than 200 tackles last season. If they can adequately replace them, BYU may very well meet the lofty expectations many have; otherwise they may be a year away from that special season.

CFI FINAL ANALYSIS

With Hall, a sturdy offensive line and playmakers galore, the Cougars will have a chance every time they step on the field. However, their 10-game winning streak will be challenged early on—they are only 7-6 in September under Mendenhall. Ultimately, a tough road schedule will keep them from running the table and crashing that BCS party at the end of the season. They should make a fourth consecutive bowl game, but if they make a fourth straight trip to Sin City, the Mormon school will feel that lady luck is not on their side.