CFI Preview: Navy @ Notre Dame

By: Mark J. Zavodnyik

Notre Dame Stadium, Saturday, 2:30PM ET, NBC

Overview

Notre Dame and Navy renew one of college football’s oldest rivalries for the 83rd time Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium.

Navy starting quarterback Ricky Dobbs returns this week. Dobbs has been hobbled of late by a knee injury he suffered against SMU in October. In last week’s 27-24 loss to Temple, Dobbs sat out the entire game except for the final series when the Midshipmen were attempting a last-minute comeback.

Navy is bowl eligible for an impressive seventh consecutive season. With four games left on the schedule, the Midshipmen are on their way to securing a winning record for the seventh straight year as well.

Sophomore receiver Michael Floyd returns for the Irish after sustaining a broken collar bone against Michigan State on September 19. Floyd is an electric playmaker who can change the entire dynamic of Notre Dame’s offense.

Notre Dame is looking to secure their seventh win of the season and continue their push for a possible BCS berth. The Fighting Irish play at Pittsburgh next week in a game that could determine the BCS fate of both teams.

For now, though, Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis is tasked with keeping his players focused on Navy.

Keys for a Navy Victory

1) Ricky Dobbs: The Navy offense is back to full strength with their starting quarterback returning to action. Like Jimmy Clausen for Notre Dame, Dobbs is the most important component of the Midshipmen offense.

The 6’ 1”, 198-pound junior from Douglasville, Georgia is a physical player who has a nose for the end zone. Dobbs is the nation’s leading scorer, averaging 12 points per game, and has scored 16 of Navy’s 32 offensive touchdowns this season.

It is no secret that Navy’s triple-option offense is focused on the run game. The Midshipmen have the nation’s third-best rushing offense, averaging 279.8 yards per game on the ground.

Navy does not pass the ball particularly well, averaging just 71.7 passing yards per contest. In fact, the Midshipmen did not attempt a single pass when Dobbs sat out in their victory over Wake Forest two weeks ago.

However, Navy can be an effective play-action passing team with Dobbs at quarterback. His best passing day of the season came against Ohio State in the season opener when he threw for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Navy will look to catch Notre Dame off-guard with a few well-timed play-action passes.

Dobbs’ supporting cast on offense includes Navy’s leading rusher, fullback Vince Murray. The junior from Union, Kentucky was not a starter at the beginning of the season, but he has made the most of his opportunities. Murray currently has a streak of three consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards.

2) Keep Clausen off the Field: Navy defensive coordinator Buddy Green has an experienced unit playing much better than it did a year ago. Last season the Midshipmen’s opponents averaged 27.2 points per game. This year their scoring defense average is down to 21.4.

Navy is 59th in rushing defense (137.44 yards per game) this season, and 23rd in passing defense. (178.11)

In his Tuesday news conference, Weis said this Midshipmen defense is Navy’s best since he arrived at Notre Dame.

Navy does not get a lot of sacks (just 11 on the season) or tackles for a loss (32), so it is important for them to get solid, consistent play from the heart of their defense: the linebackers.

Navy has been fortunate to get production and leadership from a trio of solid linebackers. Senior Ross Pospisil is Navy’s leading tackler with 65 total tackles. The Temple, Texas native is an emotional leader for the Midshipmen and the team’s defensive captain.

Linebackers Tyler Simmons and Tony Haberer are second and third respectively in team tackles. The ability of Navy’s linebackers to make reads, stay in position, and lead the defense is vital for the Midshipmen to keep the scoring down.

The most effective component of the Midshipmen defense is their ability to end drives on third down. Navy is ranked sixth in the country in third down defense. By getting off the field on third down, Navy can rely on its ball-control offense to establish the game’s rhythm.

Navy will severely limit Clausen and the Notre Dame offense if they can continue to play great defense on third down.

Keys for a Notre Dame Victory

1) Robert Hughes: The junior from Chicago is coming off one of the best performances of his career. Against Washington State, Hughes rushed for 131 yards on 24 carries and one touchdown.

Hughes will likely be the focal point of the Notre Dame running attack again this week. The usual starter, Armando Allen, has been dealing with a sprained right ankle and did not play against Washington State. Allen is listed as day-to-day and Weis may want to rest him in preparation for next week’s game against Pittsburgh.

Navy and Notre Dame have both been very good at controlling the clock this season. The Midshipmen rank second in the nation in time of possession per game (34:18), and the Irish are fifth. (33:19)

Notre Dame wants to dictate the tempo of the game and keep Navy’s clock-eating offense off the field. Hughes’ ability to grind out tough yardage and string together first downs is the key to accomplishing that goal.

A performance for Hughes like the one he had against Washington State will go a long way in earning a victory for the Irish.

2) Eliminate Mental Errors: One would think that Notre Dame is the last program in the country that would fail to take Navy seriously. Notre Dame plays the Midshipmen every year and the Irish are very familiar with Navy’s athletes and style of play.

When the Midshipmen defeated Notre Dame 46-44 in 2007, Navy ended the longest losing streak to a single opponent in FBS history (43).

With all that being said, Notre Dame continues to be a team that makes too many mental mistakes. It seems as though in every game there is a personal foul, holding penalty, or some sort of mental hiccup that slows down the Irish offense or gives their opponent a break.

Statistics show that Notre Dame is not a disciplined team. The Irish commit an average of 6.9 penalties for 60.9 yards per game. On the flip side, Navy is far more controlled; the Midshipmen are the least penalized team in the nation, committing just 3.6 penalties per game.

Compounding the problem, Notre Dame frequently “plays down” to an inferior opponent’s talent level. Four of Notre Dame’s victories have been decided by seven points or less against teams over which the Irish had a clear talent advantage.

This week the Irish face a Navy team that is efficient with the ball and does not make mental mistakes. Should the Irish make silly errors and “play down” to Navy, they will be in danger of losing the game.

Prediction

Notre Dame’s improving rush defense keeps the Navy triple-option attack under 200 yards for the game. The Midshipmen will struggle to score as Navy does not have enough offensive balance to attack Notre Dame’s poor pass defense.

Floyd makes his presence felt in his return, catching a touchdown pass for the Irish. The Notre Dame offense will have a full complement of skill players for the first time since September, and the Midshipmen will be unable to keep pace.

Score: Notre Dame 31, Navy 17

Photo Courtesy of Notre Dame Sports Information

Preview: Notre Dame (5-2) vs. Washington State (1-6)

By Mark J. Zavodnyik

Alamodome; San Antonio, TX; Saturday, 7:30PM ET, NBC

Overview

Notre Dame and Washington State will engage in a battle of passing games when the two teams meet at the Alamodome on Halloween night. NBC will be sure to get plenty of offense in their primetime coverage of the game as neither team defends the pass well.

Washington State head coach Paul Wulff leads a very young Cougar team that has struggled offensively and defensively this year. Wulff has been forced to start his youngest players due to injury and recruiting problems. Washington State’s freshmen have combined for a total of 36 starts this season. Five players who started the season have missed a total of 13 games due to injury.

Clearly a win would be an incredible victory for the Cougars. But beyond that, just a competitive performance against a ranked team in a nationally televised primetime game would be a huge accomplishment for a Washington State program in need of some positive momentum.

Notre Dame continues to play down or up to the level of their opponents. Other than the opener against Nevada, every game in which the Irish have played has come down to the final minutes and has been decided by seven or fewer points.

Notre Dame wants to rise up the rankings. To do so, the Irish need to prove to the pollsters that they have the ability to dominate a team with less talent and experience than their own.

Keys for a Washington State Victory

1. Protect the Quarterback: True freshman Jeff Tuel has emerged as the starting quarterback for the Cougars. Tuel made his debut in Washington State’s 27-6 loss to USC.

He has gotten better with experience, having his best game of the season last week against California throwing for 354 yards and two touchdowns. As a team, the Cougars have been effective throwing the ball this season, averaging 221.14 passing yards per game.

Tuel is the key for Washington State’s offense because the Cougars do not run the ball effectively, ranked 116th in FBS at 72.57 yards per game. Luckily for Washington State, their best offensive weapon is Notre Dame’s weakness. The Irish are allowing their opponents 282.43 yards per contest through the air.

Considering how much Washington State relies on the passing game, the Cougar offensive line needs to do a better job protecting Tuel. Currently Washington State is last in the country in sacks, allowing five per game. This number needs to go down.

Left tackle Tyson Pencer and left guard Zack Williams are two new starters for the Cougar offensive line. Both made their college debut this season. Senior center Kenny Alfred provides leadership up front for the Cougars.

Sophomore wide receiver Jared Karstetter is the team leader in catches with 24. The Notre Dame defense will also need to watch out for junior receiver Johnny Forzani. The Cougar deep threat has touchdown catches of 68 and 99 yards this season.

2. Don’t Lose the Game in the First Quarter: A major reason for Cougars’ struggles this season has been that they have fallen behind so quickly in their games that it becomes impossible to mount a comeback. Washington State has been outscored by their opponents 112-3 in the opening period. Combine first quarter offensive problems with quality defensive opponents like Oregon (19th in total defense) USC (16th), & Arizona State (11th), and it is no wonder the Cougars have struggled to stay competitive.

As this is not a true road game for Washington State, the Cougars could gain some crowd support if they can put points on the board early.

Were Washington States to win the coin toss, Wulff would be smart to take the opening kick and immediately start throwing deep on Notre Dame’s poor pass defense. No better way to get a neutral crowd on your side than to make some exciting plays from the onset.

3. Win the Turnover Battle: On defense, Washington State has proved they have a knack for the take-away. The Cougars are ranked 10th nationally, with 19 forced turnovers on the year. They will have their work cut out for them as Notre Dame has committed just five turnovers this season.

However, if Washington State can get one or two timely turnovers during the game, they will greatly increase their chances of victory. It will be vital for Tuel and the Cougar offense to capitalize on any opportunities provided by Notre Dame.

Keys for a Notre Dame Victory

1. Golden Tate: Sometimes it is just not that complicated. Tate is one of the most dynamic players in the country. He is fourth in the nation in receiving with 121 yards per game, and he is 10th in receptions per game at 7.43. Tate has caught half of quarterback Jimmy Clausen’s 16 touchdown passes.

When receiver Michael Floyd went down with a broken collarbone against Michigan State, there was an assumption that defenses would focus on Tate and do everything in their power to eliminate him as a threat.

Head Coach Charlie Weis has done a great job of combating these efforts by moving Tate around in different formations and even utilizing him in the wildcat offense. Just last week against Boston College Tate set a career record for catches in a game with 11.

Tate’s performances have been so impressive that he is now being mentioned in the Heisman conversation. If Tate and Clausen (second in the nation in passing efficiency) continue their production, it will be very interesting to see which Irish player is deemed to be the catalyst for Notre Dame’s offensive success.

The more the Cougars have to worry about Tate, the more dangerous Notre Dame’s running attack will be in this game. Armando Allen is Notre Dame’s leading rusher on the season with 542 yards on the ground. Allen seems to be running harder than any other point in his Notre Dame career. It would not be a surprise to see Allen break a long touchdown run against the porous Cougar run defense that allows 215.43 rushing yards per game.

2. Figure out how to defend the pass: While the Irish continue to struggle in pass defense, they seem to have shored up their front seven. The team’s rush defense has improved dramatically in their two recent games.

The Irish defense held Southern Cal to 80 yards fewer than their season average. Last week, Notre Dame held Boston College running back Montel Harris to just 38 yards after he gained 264 against NC State the previous week.

Linebacker Manti Te’o has played a key role in the improvement of Notre Dame’s rush defense. The true freshman has an instinctual ability to make plays and to be around the ball like no other defender on the team. Te’o was a major factor in controlling BC’s Harris last week, leading the Irish with seven tackles.

Despite the improvement up front, Notre Dame’s pass defense has regressed as the season has gone along. Productivity from the free safety position has been a problem for the Irish.

Junior Harrison Smith started the season at free safety but his struggles culminated when USC freshman quarterback Matt Barkley threw for 380 yards two weeks ago. Since then Smith was moved to outside linebacker, while Jamoris Slaughter and Sergio Brown were moved to safety to replace Smith.

The changes didn’t seem to matter as Notre Dame allowed Boston College freshman quarterback Dave Shinskie to throw for 279 yards. Prior to last week, Shinskie was averaging 116.4 passing yards per game. As long as Notre Dame continues to give up big plays in the passing game, the Irish will be at risk of losing games in the final moments.

Prediction

Notre Dame’s offensive weapons will over-match the Cougar defense. Washington State starts too many inexperienced players in key positions to keep pace with the Irish.

Tuel has added a nice spark to the Cougar offense and he will throw for two touchdown passes in the game. But it will not be enough as Notre Dame’s skill players will dominate.

Score: Notre Dame 45, Washington State 17

Notre Dame Sports Information