BCS Buster: Week 11 Preview

Game of the Week - Utah @ TCU

This is a battle for sole possession of first-place in the MWC, with both teams coming off convincing wins. The Frogs have been rolling and getting better every week while the Utes have a freshman quarterback, Jordan Wynn, who is coming off his first career start. That would be just one of several reasons why TCU will win this ball game. If you compare schedules, you will notice the Frogs have played a much harder slate of games than the Utes. Utah has played San Jose State, Oregon, Colorado State, and UNLV on the road this season. None of these opponents, outside of Oregon, has a winning record. At home, the Frogs have outscored opponents 180-41 while averaging 45 points per contest and allowing just 10.

As mentioned above, the Utes are starting a freshman quarterback while the Frogs have proven quarterback Andy Dalton under center. Though Wynn had a good game against New Mexico at home, one has to remember that the Lobos haven’t won a game all season so a decent-to-good performance should have been expected. Dalton, on the other hand, has been a true leader on the field and has showcased his incredible decision-making ability all season. He has thrown 16 touchdowns this season and only three interceptions; that’s just one interception per 69 pass attempts.

The defense of the Frogs speaks for itself, allowing 11.2 points-per-game on the year and only 25 points over their past four games. Utah has a good defense as well, allowing 16.4 points-per-game. Their downfall has been their opponents. Oregon has been their only true competition to date and, so far, their only loss. The Utes will need to neutralize Dalton and keep defensive end Jerry Hughes from getting at their young and inexperienced quarterback. The Frogs must stop running back Eddie Wide and force Wynn to beat them. No matter whose game plan works, both teams will come out swinging, hoping to stand alone at the top of the MWC.

Players to Watch: TCU: QB Andy Dalton; RB Joseph Turner; DE Jerry Hughes; LB Daryl Washington; Utah: QB Jordan Wynn; RB Eddie Wide; FS Robert Johnson; LB Koa Misi

Prediction: TCU 34; Utah 13

Other Games to Watch

Idaho @ Boise State: After surviving a scare from Louisiana Tech, the Blue Turf Darlings head home where they are nearly unbeatable. But the Vandals will bring their potent offense run by quarterback Nathan Enderle (questionable) as they try to outscore the Broncos in what should be a shootout. Prediction: Boise State 44; Idaho 20

Fresno State @ Nevada: The Bulldogs look to keep their WAC conference title hopes alive against first-place and red hot Nevada. Prediction: Nevada 28; Fresno State 17

Houston @ UCF: The Cougar offense is reason enough to watch this game. Enjoy the fireworks and the wonderful workings of Heisman hopeful Case Keenum. Prediction: Houston 47; UCF 33

Photo Courtesy of TCU Athletics Media Relations

Big East Power Rankings & Preview Week 11

1. Cincinnati Bearcats 9-0, (5-0): Last week: Won vs. Connecticut 47-45 - The offense gained a whopping of 711 yards without Tony Pike. Marshwan Gilyard continues to make a case for conference player of the year. The senior wide receiver grabbed a season high 12-catches for 172 yards.

Up next: vs. West Virginia - Quarterback Zach Collaros will get the nod again as the starting quarterback. Pike remains an option but the offense hasn’t missed a beat without him. Against the fierce rushing attack of West Virginia it will be the defense that needs to step up to remain undefeated. They gave up 201 yards on the ground to the Huskies. The key to the game will be coaching and turnovers-Brian Kelly has always done a fantastic job having his teams ready for big games and Cincinnati leads the conference in interceptions. Don’t be surprised to see Aaron Webster or Drew Frey pick off a a big pass in the red zone to make the difference.

Prediction: Cincinnati 37, West Virginia 33

2. Pittsburgh 8-1, (5-0): Last Week: Won vs. Syracuse 37-10 - An interception returned for a touchdown by linebacker Greg Williams turned what was a close game into a route pretty quickly. Dion Lewis continues his remarkable freshman season rushing for 110 yards, his fourth consecutive 100-plus yard game.

Up Next: vs. Notre Dame - The Irish certainly come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after dropping a home game to Navy and quarterback Jimmy Clausen is likely to have a bounce-back game. Receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are big play guys that will give the Panther secondary trouble. The difference in the game will be how well Pittsburgh runs the football. If they manage the game well and quarterback Bill Stull doesn’t make any significant mistakes they should be able to out slug the Fighting Irish. Jonathon Baldwin is prime to break out for a big game, he’s already racked up 678 yards this season.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 36, Notre Dame 28

3. South Florida Bulls 6-2, (2-2): Last week: Idle - South Florida has a lot to improve on. The offensive line needs to improve their chemistry, the receivers need to step up and the defense must play better against the run. The talent is there, but can they finish strong?

Up Next: At Rutgers - Winning a Big East title is out of the question but winning games in November will certainly start building momentum for the program and a run next year. Expect pass rushers George Selvie, Jason Pierre-Paul and Craig Marshall to give the Rutgers' freshman quarterback Tom Savage trouble. A match-up to keep an eye on will be the talented receivers of Rutgers like the speedy Tim Brown facing off against safety Nate Allen and cornerback Jerome Murphy. What the Scarlet Knights can do well is stop the run behind their strong front seven. In their losses to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh slow starts resulted in desperate play calling which included too all-or-nothing plays. USF must take advantage of B.J. Daniels' running ability.

Prediction: South Florida 23, Rutgers 14

4. West Virginia 7-2, (3-1): Last week: Won vs. Louisville 17-9 - The game was closer than the experts thought and the Cardinals actually had a chance to tie the game in the final minutes. Defensive lineman Julian Miller recorded three sacks in the game bringing his season total to 8.5 which ranks second in the conference.

Up next: At Cincinnati - Noel Devine is why West Virginia will make this a competitive game. The conference's second leading rusher always steps up when the team needs him. He’s racked up 1,010 yards, averaging 6.0 yards a carry and ten touchdowns. But if they want to pull off the upset they’re going to need more than just Devine’s big runs. If quarterback Jarrett Brown doesn’t play well they will lose, he must keep the mistakes to a minimum.

Prediction: Cincinnati 37, West Virginia 33

5. Rutgers 6-2, (1-2): Last week: Idle - With a week off the offense had a lot to work on as they prepare for the final four games. They rank second to last in the conference in both passing and running, barely better than woeful Syracuse.

Up Next: vs. South Florida - In order to win this football game Rutgers must run the ball down the throats of South Florida. Joe Martinek leads the team with 601 yards and seven touchdowns but hasn’t gained more than 54 yards in three previous conference games. Look for Rutgers to utilize extra practice time to add more looks and wrinkles to their offense. Running backs Jourdan Brooks, freshman De’Antwan Williams and receiver Mohamed Sanu running the wild-cat should all see more action. Wide-receiver Tim Brown is quietly having a fantastic season and he has proven he can make clutch plays. Defensively their number one job is contain the mobile quarterback, linebackers Ryan D’Imperio and Damaso Munoz will be up for the challenge.

Prediction: South Florida 23, Rutgers 14

6.Connecticut 4-5, (1-4): Last week: Lost at Cincinnati 47-45 - It’s true that moral victories don’t get you into bowl games but it’s tough to be critical of the Huskies this week. With all they've been through, to be down on the road and coming back deserves some credit.

Up Next: Idle - A much needed time off to collect their thoughts and prepare for Notre Dame.

7. Louisville 3-6, (0-4): Last week: Lost at West Virginia 17-9 - Emerging as the new lead ball carrier is Darius Ashley. The freshman rushed for 164 yards on 33 carries.

Up Next: vs. Syracuse - This will be the last game of the season in which Louisville is expected to win. Playing against an Orange team that is experiencing turmoil, the Cardinals must minimize their turnovers and execute in the red zone. They should also take advantage of talented wide-outs Doug Beaumont and Scott Long versus a very poor pass defense.

Prediction: Louisville 21, Syracuse 20

8. Syracuse 3-6, (0-4): Last week: Lost at Pittsburgh 37-10 - There wasn’t much that went right in this football game other then very good individual performances. Linebacker Derrell Smith continues to flourish racking up eight total tackles (6.5 sacks this season). The star of the game for Syracuse was Delone Carter who rushed for 144 yards on 17 carriers. It wasn’t a stat padding game either, most of the yards were gained in the first half when the game was still in reach.

Up Next: at Louisville - With their best offensive player Mike Williams having quite the team and their top defensive player Arthur Jones out for the season with a torn lateral meniscus...what does this team have left? This is a critical point for head coach Doug Marrone not to let his football team spiral downwarf even more. In order to win this game Carter must have another fantastic game on the ground.

Prediction: Louisville 21, Syracuse 20
Photos Courtesy of University of Pittsburgh, WVU Sports Communication, Syracuse University Athletics

Big East Power Rankings & Preview Week 10

1. Cincinnati Bearcats 8-0, (4-0): Last week: Win at Syracuse 28-7- The offense did have some trouble running the ball and capitalizing on good field position at first, but eventually passing efficiency prevailed. Backup quarterback Zach Collaros made it look easy completing 22-of-28 passes and throwing for 295 yards, four touchdowns.

Up next: vs. Connecticut - The passing leader in the Big East is back, Tony Pike makes his return after missing the last two and half games. With a game against West Virginia just under a week away the Bearcats focus will be tested.

Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Connecticut 20

2. Pittsburgh 7-1, (4-0): Last Week: Idle - The Panthers are moving up in all the polls and currently stand ranked number 13th overall in the BCS Standings.

Up Next: vs. Syracuse: The key to this game is focus. Before Pitt takes on Notre Dame and Cincinnati they have to play against staggering Syracuse. The Panthers might have some trouble running the ball, so they should take advantage of their big wide outs versus the inexperience and vulnerable Orange secondary. This game shouldn’t be close.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Syracuse 14

3. South Florida Bulls 6-2, (2-2): Last week: Win vs. West Virginia 30-19 - Nothing gets a team over a two-game losing streak faster then a big win at home. B.J Daniels continued his development into stardom and the defensive line led by George Selvie was stellar again. During the bye week the Bulls have a lot to work on, specifically where some more yards are going to come from other than the arm and legs of their freshman quarterback.

Up Next: Idle

4. West Virginia 6-2, (2-1): Last week: Lost at South Florida 30-19 - It seems like West Virginia never matches up well against South Florida. The Mountaineers shouldn’t panic just yet, it was only their first conference loss of the season and they still control their destiny for a title.

Up next: vs. Louisville: Earlier this season when West Virginia came off a loss they bounced back with a home victory over Colorado in which Noel Devine rushed for 220 yards on 15 carries. Expect something similar to that this week in the box score and on the scoreboard.

Prediction: West Virginia 29, Louisville 13

5. Rutgers 6-2, (1-2): Last week: Win at Connecticut 28-24 - Tim Brown is making a case for himself as the top wide receiver in the Big East. He leads the league in yards with 811 and is averaging 21.9 yards a catch, which was boosted by his 81-yard game-winning touchdown grab to beat the Huskies.

Up Next: Idle

6.Connecticut 4-4, (1-3): Last week: Lost vs. Rutgers 28-24 - Just another heartbreaking loss for the Huskies. A tremendous job by their offense to putting together a 87-yard drive that was capped off with what should have been the game winning score by Jordan Todman.

Up Next: At Cincinnati: At quarterback will be Zach Frazer. He was 21-of-46 last week throwing for a career 333-yards, if he can put up those same type of numbers and Todman or Andre Dixon can burst out for a couple of long runs this game might be closer than the experts thing.

Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Connecticut 20

7. Louisville 3-5, (0-3): Last week: Win vs. Arkansas State 21-13 - It was the newcomers leading the way. Redshirt freshman quarterback Will Stein threw for 232 yards and junior tailback Bilal Powell rushed for a season high 93 yards on 17 carries.

Up Next: at West Virginia: The Cardinals rank at the bottom the Big East in stopping the run and they have given up a total of 14 touchdowns already this season on the ground…so facing off against Devine this week spells trouble.

Prediction: West Virginia 29, Louisville 13

8. Syracuse 3-5, (0-3): Last week: Lost vs. Cincinnati 28-7 - Another game, another loss and another disgraceful performance by the Orange offense.

Up Next: at Pittsburgh - It has been a very odd week for the Syracuse football team: several players are suspended for the game due to an incident involving a car accident late last Saturday night and star wide receiver Mike Williams quite the football team without dismissal. Now with the media swirling around head coach Doug Marrone for answers, this could be an emotional contest for the Orange. Do they band together or give up?

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28, Syracuse 14

Photos Courtesy of University of Pittsburgh, Tom Ciszak Rutgers Athletics

Draft Watch: LSU @ Alabama

* The Quarterbacks: Right now, neither signal caller—LSU’s Jordan Jefferson or Alabama’s Greg McElroy—is at the forefront in terms of quarterback prospects. Of the two, Jefferson (6’ 5”/19 years old) has more upside—he’s younger, bigger and faster. The true sophomore was forced into early action last year and not surprisingly has been inconsistent. Through the first six games of the season, LSU was conservative. Not that they didn’t allow their quarterback to throw the ball, they did, Jefferson attempted more than 25 passes in four straight games leading up to the Florida game. However, he wasn’t put in game-deciding situations, especially when they played Florida. Coming off a bye week, Jefferson set career-highs with his 21 completions, 31 attempts and 242 yards against Auburn. Last week against Tulane, he averaged a season-best 9.6 yards per attempt. Now, Tulane isn’t Alabama (btw…neither is Auburn), so it will be interesting to see if head coach Les Miles chooses to put the game in Jefferson’s hands or not this Saturday. How Jefferson performs against Alabama’s stout defense, could go a long way in his progress as a quarterback.

While Jefferson is progressing, McElroy appears to be regressing. In his first two games, the junior out of Texas threw for 471 yards; and in his first SEC start he torched Arkansas for 291 yards and three touchdowns (no interceptions) on 17-of-24 passing. In the four games since then, McElroy has failed to reach 150 yards in any single game, throwing for a season-low 92 yards with two interceptions (no touchdowns) against South Carolina. At Ole Miss he completed just 44.1 percent of his passes. In his last three games, McElroy has lead the Crimson Tide to one offensive touchdown, as Alabama has bogged down whenever they get into the red zone. Their only offensive touchdown in the last two games, saw Mark Ingram take five straight snaps from the Wildcat formation against South Carolina as he led the way to the end zone. An extra week to prepare did worlds of wonders for Jefferson, we’ll learn on Saturday if this is the answer to McElroy’s woes. Although he is a junior and 21 years old, prior to this season, McElroy attempted just 20 passes in his career. The extra practice time is an opportunity to work on some individual skills. McElroy has a solid arm and frame (6’ 3/220) and early on it appeared Alabama might actually expand their offense from a year ago. But he has struggled against tougher defenses; this is a chance for the Southlake native to turn that around.

* Running Between the Tackles: With Charles Scott checking in at 6’ 0”/234 pounds and Ingram 5’ 10”/212 pounds, the two backs don’t physically resemble each other, but both do most of their damage between the tackles. A senior, Scott entered the season as one of the top running backs for the Draft Class of 2010. He is a big bruising back whose greatest asset is his lower body strength. Scott keeps those legs churning and does an excellent job of leaning forward to get that extra yard or two. The Louisiana native’s numbers are down significantly from a year ago—1,174 yards, 5.4 yards per carry and 18 touchdowns to 459 yards, 4.5 yards per carry and four touchdowns. A big game in Tuscaloosa and Scott can regain some lost momentum.

Conversely, Ingram has thrust him into the Heisman conversation with his play this season—1,004 yards, 6.6 yards per carry and eight touchdowns. Ingram is an extinctive runner who uses his great vision to find the wholes and when they aren’t there initially, he possesses the patience to let the wholes develop and allow his blockers to do what they have to do. Ingram is a powerful runner—low center of gravity, great leg drive and he always keeps his legs moving after contact. The Michigan native does a nice job coming out of the backfield as a receiver as well; he looks to immediately take it up-field, he doesn’t dance, but can make people miss with his moves or by running them over. He makes such quick cuts in the open field. Ingram leads the SEC with 11 total touchdowns. The only thing missing from Ingram’s game is breakaway speed, but his game speed may be underrated.

* The Pass Catchers: At 6’ 4” and 211 pounds, true sophomore Julio Jones has prototypical size for a wide receiver—the youngster already looks like an NFL wide out. He is among the most talented pass catchers in the nation despite pedestrian numbers (20 receptions, 220 yards, one touchdown), which have been curtailed this season by some nagging injuries for Jones, as well as very inconsistent play by first year starting quarterback McElroy. They are a shocking 0-for-12 when trying to hook up in the red zone. Jones is a mismatch for most defensive backs—he cannot only run away from defenders, but the kid is so physical. He’s almost like a tight end, seeking out DBs to punish when he gets the ball in his hands. Throw out the numbers…with an extra week to rest, Jones could be a ticking time bomb ready to explode. Jones is also the Tide’s backup punt returner and he has surprising quicks for a guy so big. He will be the best receiver on the field this Saturday.

LSU does not have a clear cut number one wide receiver—junior Terrance Toliver leads the team with his 38 receptions and 501 yards, not to far behind is senior Brandon LaFell who has recorded 37 receptions for 478 and a conference-high eight touchdown grabs. At 6’ 3” and 206 pounds, LaFell has an excellent combination of size and speed. He is a very natural and fluid runner with the ball in his hands; dangerous after the catch, which is why the Tigers often like to get him the ball quickly—don’t be surprised to see more than one screen pass go LaFell’s way. He is not afraid to across the middle of the field. After a disappointing sophomore season, Tolliver has finally broken out as a junior and provides the Bayou Bengals with another player who can stretch the field. At 6’ 5” Tolliver is a big target and LSU’s Jefferson will look to use that long frame. Tolliver makes his opponents pay primarily working the sidelines. He is not as polished as LaFell, but may have more upside once he reaches his full potential. He still needs to be more consistent with his route running and at only 206 pounds at his height; the Texas native could pack on a few pounds. LaFell and Tolliver give the Bayou Bengals two wide outs who will challenge Alabama’s talented secondary.

Don’t sleep on the tight ends either. Georgia Tech transfer Colin Peek has flashed the ability to make plays for Alabama. He has a solid frame at 6’ 6” and 255 pounds and he can go get the football. Senior Richard Dickson for LSU isn’t as big (6’ 3”/240 pounds) as Peek, but is probably more dangerous after the catch. Dickson projects as a potential H-Back or even fullback at the next level.

* The ‘Backers – Stud/Sleeper: Alabama’s Rolando McClain is a no-doubt NFL talent and the best overall prospect in this game of prospects. There may not be a better defender in the nation. McClain has the size (6’ 4”/258), speed, instincts and intelligence to play almost any linebacker position. Ideally, he will fit in as inside linebacker in a 3-4 defense with he bulk to take blockers head on, shed them and make the play. He is also a student of the game and seams to improve on a weekly basis, with the knowledge and leadership skills that are earning him a reputation as a coach on the field. He should be a top 10 pick when he decides he is ready for the NFL. On the other of the field, LSU’s Kelvin Sheppard is one of the most underrated linebackers in the country (bright, can play all three linebacker positions). He possesses athleticism, speed, quickness and a very good frame (6’ 3”/239). Sheppard comes in playing his best football; he’s a sure tackler who has the ability to make plays in the backfield. The junior hasn’t had the hype of previous LSU linebackers such as Ali Highsmith and Darry Beckwith, but he will play on Sundays.

* Ranking the DBs: Where do we begin? Not only do all four starters on each team have a chance to play on Sundays, but so do some of their backups:

(1) Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU – The sophomore has it all—size, speed and athleticism. It will be fun with him match-up one-on-one with Jones; Peterson more than held his own when locked up with Georgia’s A.J. Green earlier in the season. Not just a cover guy, this kid is a football player who will play against the run.

(2) Chad Jones, FS, LSU – The junior has really stepped up his game in his third season on the Bayou. Since he was a freshman we all knew the ability was there, but he was raw, more an athlete than a football player. This season it is starting to come together. Jones can fly and at 6’ 3” and 225 pounds he has prototypical size. He has also displayed the knack for making the big play at the right time.

(3) Mark Barron, SS, Alabama – The sophomore safety leads the SEC in both pass deflections with 11 and interceptions with four. Like Peterson and Jones, Barron brings both size (6’ 2”/214) and speed, and if the numbers are any indication, he possesses the ball skills. Barron waited his turn last season behind Rashad Johnson and this year he has more than lived up to the recruiting hype. Jefferson must know were he is at all times.

(4) Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama – Jackson has excellent instincts and displays an understanding of the game. He gets his hands on the ball a lot and often it appears as if he knows it’s coming, which speaks to his ability to translate the game plan to the field. Not as big as Peterson, but Jackson is not undersized by any means (6’ 0”/193).

(5) Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama – Arenas is a unique player among this group. He lacks ideal length (5’ 9”) but is built solid (195 pounds). He also plays big—his four sacks are second on the team and the senior leads the Crimson Tide with his 8.5 tackles for a loss. It’s safe to say he is very comfortable playing near the line of scrimmage and coming on a blitz—run or pass. Earlier this year he stole the ball from Shay Hodge of Ole Miss for an interception, another example of his physical play. More quick than fast, he looks like a prototypical slot cover man, who is also a special returner.

(6) Justin Woodall, FS, Alabama – Because he lacks ideal speed, Woodall doesn’t have the upside of Jones or Barron, but he is a solid football player who has excellent size (6’ 2”/221), he’s the biggest defensive back on the Crimson Tide. He is a solid tackler, who has made two interceptions and six pass deflections.

(7) Chris Hawkins, CB, LSU – The senior cornerback is an ideal number two cover man, with good speed and length (6’ 1”), but NFL scouts will probably like to see him bulk up a bit (182 pounds). Like Woodall, Hawkins can get lost in the mix with so many phenomenal athletes stealing the spotlight, but worthy of mid-round consideration.

(8) Jai Eugene, CB, LSU – Eugene probably has more upside than Hawkins, but is not quite there as a football player. The junior had some talking him up as a future number one corner, but that was before Peterson took the field. Eugene has shown flashes, but needs to more consistent. He seams to lose confidence and give too much respect to the opposition (read: cushion).

(9) Brandon Taylor, SS, LSU – You have to love Taylor’s closing speed when he attacks the line of scrimmage as he is doing a nice job of stepping into big brother Curtis Taylor’s shoes. He is undersized for a safety (191 pounds), but he is a good open field tackler. Not a big hitter, however he possesses coverage skills that many college safeties lack.

(10) Marquis Johnson, CB, Alabama – Johnson is part of a group of unheralded seniors on the Alabama defense that have surprised many with their level of contribution. The backup corner isn’t going to wow anyone with his measurables but seams to have a nose for the ball and is tied with Jackson for second in the SEC in passes defended per game (1.25) for a total of 10.

(Bonus) Harry Coleman, SAM, LSU – The Bayou Bengals’ strong-side linebacker at 6’ 2” and 206 pounds is not playing linebacker at the next level—the former defensive back projects as a strong safety. Coleman is having a great senior season with 52 tackles and five tackles for a loss, which has caused him to rise up some draft boards, however it has to cause some concern that he is having more success at linebacker than he did at safety.

* Scout’s Will Also be Watching:

In the Trenches: The Tigers’ are best on the perimeter with left tackle Ciron Black and defensive end Rahim Alem, neither of whom has helped their stock this season. For Alabama they are built inside-out with noseman Terrance Cody having an excellent seasons as the prototypical noseman for a 3-4 defense and left guard Mike Johnson their most NFL ready offensive lineman.

Boom or Bust: Senior tackle Al Woods is finally seeing consistent playing time after being an enigma in his first three seasons at LSU. He was seen as a potential first round talent, but failed to deliver on the field. Woods could significantly improve his status with a strong finish to his career.

Opportunities: LSU’s LB Perry Riley is considered a solid, not spectacular player and he can get a stock upgrade if he does a good job against Ingram and company. Junior college transfer James Carpenter is a talented left tackle for Alabama who is still learning the game and can make people take note if handles Alem. How about son of Bobby Hebert and LSU center T-Bob Hebert who will lineup across from Mount Cody? If he holds his own, the sophomore will start to garner recognition. LSU junior right tackle Joseph Barksdale is a very good prospect and will get a chance to show what he can do both in the pass and run games against the physical front seven of Alabama.

Senior Sleepers: Alabama: OT Drew Davis, RB Roy Upchurch, DE Lorenzo Washington, DE Brandon Deadrick, OL Cory Reamer; LSU: RB Keiland Williams, RB/RT Trindon Holliday, DT Charles Alexander, LB Jack Cutrera, DB Danny McCray

Stars of Tomorrow: Alabama: RB Trent Richardson (FR), C William Vlachos (SO), OG Barrett Jones, Marquise Maze (SO), WILL Nico Johnson; LSU: WR Rueben Randle (FR), QB Russell Shepard (FR), DE Chancey Aghayere (FR)

Photos Courtesy of SEC Sports Media, Alabama Media Relations, Steve Franz/LSU Sports Information

CFI Preview: Navy @ Notre Dame

By: Mark J. Zavodnyik

Notre Dame Stadium, Saturday, 2:30PM ET, NBC

Overview

Notre Dame and Navy renew one of college football’s oldest rivalries for the 83rd time Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium.

Navy starting quarterback Ricky Dobbs returns this week. Dobbs has been hobbled of late by a knee injury he suffered against SMU in October. In last week’s 27-24 loss to Temple, Dobbs sat out the entire game except for the final series when the Midshipmen were attempting a last-minute comeback.

Navy is bowl eligible for an impressive seventh consecutive season. With four games left on the schedule, the Midshipmen are on their way to securing a winning record for the seventh straight year as well.

Sophomore receiver Michael Floyd returns for the Irish after sustaining a broken collar bone against Michigan State on September 19. Floyd is an electric playmaker who can change the entire dynamic of Notre Dame’s offense.

Notre Dame is looking to secure their seventh win of the season and continue their push for a possible BCS berth. The Fighting Irish play at Pittsburgh next week in a game that could determine the BCS fate of both teams.

For now, though, Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis is tasked with keeping his players focused on Navy.

Keys for a Navy Victory

1) Ricky Dobbs: The Navy offense is back to full strength with their starting quarterback returning to action. Like Jimmy Clausen for Notre Dame, Dobbs is the most important component of the Midshipmen offense.

The 6’ 1”, 198-pound junior from Douglasville, Georgia is a physical player who has a nose for the end zone. Dobbs is the nation’s leading scorer, averaging 12 points per game, and has scored 16 of Navy’s 32 offensive touchdowns this season.

It is no secret that Navy’s triple-option offense is focused on the run game. The Midshipmen have the nation’s third-best rushing offense, averaging 279.8 yards per game on the ground.

Navy does not pass the ball particularly well, averaging just 71.7 passing yards per contest. In fact, the Midshipmen did not attempt a single pass when Dobbs sat out in their victory over Wake Forest two weeks ago.

However, Navy can be an effective play-action passing team with Dobbs at quarterback. His best passing day of the season came against Ohio State in the season opener when he threw for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Navy will look to catch Notre Dame off-guard with a few well-timed play-action passes.

Dobbs’ supporting cast on offense includes Navy’s leading rusher, fullback Vince Murray. The junior from Union, Kentucky was not a starter at the beginning of the season, but he has made the most of his opportunities. Murray currently has a streak of three consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards.

2) Keep Clausen off the Field: Navy defensive coordinator Buddy Green has an experienced unit playing much better than it did a year ago. Last season the Midshipmen’s opponents averaged 27.2 points per game. This year their scoring defense average is down to 21.4.

Navy is 59th in rushing defense (137.44 yards per game) this season, and 23rd in passing defense. (178.11)

In his Tuesday news conference, Weis said this Midshipmen defense is Navy’s best since he arrived at Notre Dame.

Navy does not get a lot of sacks (just 11 on the season) or tackles for a loss (32), so it is important for them to get solid, consistent play from the heart of their defense: the linebackers.

Navy has been fortunate to get production and leadership from a trio of solid linebackers. Senior Ross Pospisil is Navy’s leading tackler with 65 total tackles. The Temple, Texas native is an emotional leader for the Midshipmen and the team’s defensive captain.

Linebackers Tyler Simmons and Tony Haberer are second and third respectively in team tackles. The ability of Navy’s linebackers to make reads, stay in position, and lead the defense is vital for the Midshipmen to keep the scoring down.

The most effective component of the Midshipmen defense is their ability to end drives on third down. Navy is ranked sixth in the country in third down defense. By getting off the field on third down, Navy can rely on its ball-control offense to establish the game’s rhythm.

Navy will severely limit Clausen and the Notre Dame offense if they can continue to play great defense on third down.

Keys for a Notre Dame Victory

1) Robert Hughes: The junior from Chicago is coming off one of the best performances of his career. Against Washington State, Hughes rushed for 131 yards on 24 carries and one touchdown.

Hughes will likely be the focal point of the Notre Dame running attack again this week. The usual starter, Armando Allen, has been dealing with a sprained right ankle and did not play against Washington State. Allen is listed as day-to-day and Weis may want to rest him in preparation for next week’s game against Pittsburgh.

Navy and Notre Dame have both been very good at controlling the clock this season. The Midshipmen rank second in the nation in time of possession per game (34:18), and the Irish are fifth. (33:19)

Notre Dame wants to dictate the tempo of the game and keep Navy’s clock-eating offense off the field. Hughes’ ability to grind out tough yardage and string together first downs is the key to accomplishing that goal.

A performance for Hughes like the one he had against Washington State will go a long way in earning a victory for the Irish.

2) Eliminate Mental Errors: One would think that Notre Dame is the last program in the country that would fail to take Navy seriously. Notre Dame plays the Midshipmen every year and the Irish are very familiar with Navy’s athletes and style of play.

When the Midshipmen defeated Notre Dame 46-44 in 2007, Navy ended the longest losing streak to a single opponent in FBS history (43).

With all that being said, Notre Dame continues to be a team that makes too many mental mistakes. It seems as though in every game there is a personal foul, holding penalty, or some sort of mental hiccup that slows down the Irish offense or gives their opponent a break.

Statistics show that Notre Dame is not a disciplined team. The Irish commit an average of 6.9 penalties for 60.9 yards per game. On the flip side, Navy is far more controlled; the Midshipmen are the least penalized team in the nation, committing just 3.6 penalties per game.

Compounding the problem, Notre Dame frequently “plays down” to an inferior opponent’s talent level. Four of Notre Dame’s victories have been decided by seven points or less against teams over which the Irish had a clear talent advantage.

This week the Irish face a Navy team that is efficient with the ball and does not make mental mistakes. Should the Irish make silly errors and “play down” to Navy, they will be in danger of losing the game.

Prediction

Notre Dame’s improving rush defense keeps the Navy triple-option attack under 200 yards for the game. The Midshipmen will struggle to score as Navy does not have enough offensive balance to attack Notre Dame’s poor pass defense.

Floyd makes his presence felt in his return, catching a touchdown pass for the Irish. The Notre Dame offense will have a full complement of skill players for the first time since September, and the Midshipmen will be unable to keep pace.

Score: Notre Dame 31, Navy 17

Photo Courtesy of Notre Dame Sports Information