Big Ten: Spartans LeSick with a LeFevour

By JOHN SEARS - BIG TEN INSIDER

For Michigan State’s showdown with the Chippewas of Central Michigan, I was figuring the quarterbacks in green would out-play the all-time MAC leader in yards, Dan LeFevour. It’s too late for take-backs, so let’s give LeFevour his due. The “Tim Tebow of the Midwest” finished 33-for-46 for 328 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He also ran for ten yards and caught one pass for 24 yards deep in Michigan State territory on a throwback pass from wide receiver Antonio Brown.

The biggest play came late, when LeFevour connected for his third touchdown pass with under a minute left in the game on a wheel route to Paris Cotton out of the backfield. A failed two-point conversion attempt (going for the win) forced Central Michigan to attempt an onside kick, which was executed perfectly by kicker Andrew Aquila. LeFevour then guided the ball down to Michigan State’s 25, where Aquila squeezed his kick just inside the uprights to solidify the upset 29-27.

On the other side of the ball, Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol combined for 16-of-26 passing, 215 yards and two touchdowns. I like that the new gunslingers are yet to throw an interception. But as a team, the Spartans were unable to give themselves enough possessions to finish off the Chippewas–they lost the time-of-possession battle 33:25 to 26:35. That won’t cut it when Michigan State is lacking consistent quick-strike capabilities, despite marching down the field in exactly 2:00 to score the opening touchdown of the game.

In individual performances, receiver Blair White looks solid, hauling in seven receptions for 105 yards (on top of his 9-for-162, two touchdowns last week). Stud linebacker Greg Jones, without having official statistics, had his name called often, and as predicted, is making life less than pleasant blitzing quarterbacks more so this season.

All is far from lost for Michigan State, but certainly momentum takes a big hit, especially with Notre Dame next on the schedule. I hate to say “must win” just yet, but if they lose next week, they then have Wisconsin sandwiched between their in-state showdown with Michigan to kick off conference action.

Photos Courtesy of Michigan State Athletic Communications, Robert Barclay Central Michigan

CFI Countdown: #21 Michigan St. Spartans

2008 Record: 9-4 (Big Ten: 6-2)
Bowl Game: Lost Capital One Bowl to Georgia, 24-12
Location: East Lansing, Michigan
Stadium: Spartan Stadium (75,005)
Head Coach: Mark Dantonio
Overall: 34-27 (6th season)
@ Michigan St.: 16-10 (3rd season)
Link to MSU Football Page

After taking over a four-win team and leading them to seven victories and a bowl game in 2007, followed by a nine-win season and New Year’s Day bowl in 2008, headman Mark Dantonio has proven in two seasons that he is the real deal. There is no reason to expect the Spartans to do anything but continue that progression under his leadership. Everything they’ve lacked in the past in terms of discipline and mental toughness, Dantonio has supplied.

When the Spartans Have the Ball

Offensive Coordinator: Don Tredwell
Scheme: Multiple
Starters Returning: Seven
Key Losses: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Javon Ringer, OT Jesse Miller, OG Roland Martin

Losing someone like Javon Ringer is obviously going to hurt—as a senior he averaged 30 carries per game. However, the Spartans believe they can actually have a more efficient rushing game in 2009 (MSU averaged just 3.3 yards per carry). No one player can replace Ringer, but there are about a half dozen Spartans competing for the opportunity to do so. Sophomores Ashton Leggett and Andre Anderson, as well as redshirt freshman Caulton Ray are among those in the mix. A more balanced offense would serve Sparty well in opening things up for the rushing attack. There is also competition at quarterback between sophomores Kirk Cousins and Keith Nicol, both of whom possess strong arms with Nicol also possessing the ability to run the ball. Whichever playmaker ends up getting the most reps will have more than enough weapons at their disposal. Junior Mark Dell has the most upside of the wideouts, while senior Blair White was the most productive in 2008. Also keep an eye on sophomores Keshawn Martin and B. J. Cunningham. They are deep at tight end as well with Clemson transfer Brian Linthicum backing up the very talented Charlie Gantt. The offensive line returns three starters with sophomore Joel Foreman serving as a powerful run blocker from his guard position.

Top Pro Prospects: 1) TE Charlie Gantt (JR), 2) Mark Dell (JR), 3) QB Kirk Cousins (SO)

When the Other Team Has the Ball

Defensive Coordinator: Pat Narduzzi (3rd season)
Scheme: Multiple 4-3
Starters Returning: Eight
Key Losses: DE Brandon Long, DT Justin Kershaw, LB Ryan Allison, S Otis Wiley

The strength of the Spartans is their defense, specifically their linebacker corps, led by All-American candidate Greg Jones. The speedy, sideline-to-sideline hard-hitting junior is making the move from WILL to MIKE and while there may be an adjustment period, once Jones settles in the middle he will be a tacking machine. Replacing him at the weakside is fellow junior Eric Gordon, who has pass-rushing potential and, like Jones, is entering his third season in the starting lineup. Up front they are deep with defensive end Trevor Anderson their top pass rusher. There are high hopes for red-shirt freshman Jerel Worthy on the inside. The secondary should be solid as well, beginning with cover men junior Chris L. Rucker and senior Ross Weaver. Expect this experienced group to be more aggressive and make more impact plays at every level in their third season under Dantonio and defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi.

Top Pro Prospects: 1) LB Greg Jones (JR), 2) CB Chris L. Rucker (JR), 3) LB Eric Gordon (JR)

The Schedule

The Spartans face three difficult road games in the first half of the season—at Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Illinois—which will go a long way to deciding the type of season Michigan St. will have. On the plus side, they miss Ohio St. this season and play host to both Iowa and Penn St., the latter in their season finale. Last season, the Spartans were the surprise team in the Big Ten title race, in it right up until the final week. If they are to compete again, it’s time to win some big games—they lost by a combined score of 94-25 against Ohio St. and Penn St. in 2008.

Pivotal Point

The key unit for the 2009 offense is their offensive line. There are few questions, if any, regarding Dantonio’s defense. Offensively they are looking to replace both their starting quarterback and running back, with inexperienced players waiting to step in. Cousins has attempted a mere 43 passes, which are 43 more than Nicol. Their leading returning rusher is Anderson, who had 97 yards on 26 carries last season. However, there is little doubt that Michigan St. has significant talent at both spots. The expectations for the offensive line aren’t necessarily as high, particularly on the right side where they have to replace two starters. Sophomore Jared McGaha and junior J’Michael Deane are the expected starters. Pass protection will be critical as well.

CFI Final Analysis

In the three seasons prior to Dantonio taking over in East Lansing, MSU won a total of 14 games and failed to make a bowl game. In 2003 they made a bowl game, but not before turning a 7-1 start (and #9 AP Ranking) into an 8-5 record. Gone are the underachieving and the collapses that the Spartans had become known for. Now it’s time for Michigan St. to take the next step—handle expectations and win some big games.

College Football Insiders Top 25 Countdown:
The Next 25 (26-50) Plus 18 Bowl Teams
#25 West Virginia Mounainteers
#24 Tennessee Volunteers
#23 Clemson Tigers
#22. Pittsburgh Panthers

Contact Daniel Mogollon via email dan@collegefootballinsiders.com

Photo Credit: Michigan State Athletic Communications

College Football Insiders Preview: Big Ten

By JOHN SEARS - Big Ten Insider

Due to the weather patterns in the Windy City, we joke (or not) that in Chicago there are two seasons—winter and construction. By June, we’re clinging to the low ‘70s, hoping the afternoon “London Fog” burns off before it blocks the sun, sort of like a volcanic or meteor-strike ashen blanket that throws the globe in to a 10,000-year ice age. On the bright side, we have been inundated with previews of the 2009 college football season as early as the time Chicago has decided to begin its summer thaw. TV talking heads, magazines, blogs, podcasts, and a plethora of other online multimedia services have weighed in, but I know you have all been holding out through the dog days of summer to get my perspective on the season…All five of you (including my parents, my in-laws and my wife). So I present my 2009 Big Ten outlook with a sense of humility. This word may also be the best descriptor of how all teams planning on contending this year in the Big Ten should approach their season. Why? No team escaped roster evaluation without a fatal flaw in one (or more) of their units, which may inevitably stunt their chance at contending for the conference title. Those teams that play to their strengths, or mask their weaknesses best may escape the Big Ten ice age and take a step towards the warming effects of national and BCS respect.

The Favorites: Penn State and Ohio State: Despite most slotting the perennial power Ohio State atop the league, Penn State possesses enough talent, experience, and most of all, leadership to secure the conference crown over the Buckeyes. Will they be packing for Pasadena? Yes. Will they be packing for a January 7th game (the National Title game) or the January 1st Rose Bowl? I am not handing everything over to Penn State before a game is played, and I feel Illinois will give them a run and finish a close second. In fact, I see the Nittany Lions’ only loss coming to the Illini on October 3rd. One loss in the SEC or Big 12 can give you some bargaining chips for a case of National Championship representation, but Penn State will lose the BCS beauty contest, with a number 1 or 2 ranking just out of their fingertips. Why? Penn State has serious gaps to fill in their passing game and in defending the pass. Daryll Clark will likely have a stellar season statistically, leading Penn State with his arms or legs. But replacing the magnificent, record-setting receiving trio of Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood will be nearly impossible. If the Nittany Lions can ride the legs of Evan Royster, Stephon Green and Clark, perhaps there will be less pressure to gain chunks of yards through the air. On the other side of the ball, the front seven looks solid, despite key losses on the edges of Aaron Maybin, Maurice Evans, and Josh Gaines. A healthy Sean Lee coupled with last year’s standout at Linebacker U, Navorro Bowman, can be a deadly combination. However, zero starters return in the secondary. In 2006, their defense survived under similar circumstances; thus it goes without saying (then why am I saying it?) that some true freshmen or newcomers need to step up big to round out the D. If so, look for Penn State to make a run for national considerations. As for Ohio State, I’m a little skeptical of their chances. Funny how “skeptical” still puts them in the top two of the conference and possibly another 10+ win season. But losing running back Beanie Wells and top receiving targets Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie on offense, while losing the captain of the defense, linebacker James Laurinaitis, lockdown corner Malcolm Jenkins and linebacker Marcus Freeman leaves too many holes to fill, even for the Buckeyes. I know I know, Ohio State reloads every year, but reloading with a quarterback who is still mastering the PASS at the collegiate level (yes, he runs like a deer) may result in some hiccups. An early season rematch with USC looms over the Columbus faithful and a victory here could set the stage for conference play. Their schedule is not life-threatening overall, but they still need to man up against Illinois (9/26), Wisconsin (10/10) and Iowa (11/14), albeit at home. The only tough road-tester just happens to be in Happy Valley, on November 7th.

The Contenders: Michigan State and Iowa: For Michigan State, it’s a little more complicated. Their defense projects to be tough, returning seven starters, including a feisty linebacking corps led by MIKE Greg Jones. Their biggest loss on the defensive side of the ball is certainly All Big-Ten Otis Wiley at safety. On offense, leadership is lost at quarterback (Brian Hoyer), but more importantly, workhorse running back Javon Ringer has moved on to the pros. Last year, Ringer accounted for 22 touchdowns, which certainly relieved the pressure for the quarterback to make plays. A running back (or committee of backs) must step in to fill that gaping hole in the run game. There exists promise with several highly touted recruits in the stable, but all are unproven. Also unproven are the sophomore gunslingers, Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins, but with experience they figure to be better than Hoyer. The outlook for the Spartans really depends on which unit can make the biggest jump the quickest, the running backs or quarterbacks? If the Spartans can make it through a tough early stretch of games—at Notre Dame, at Wisconsin, Michigan, and then at Illinois—they should be sitting pretty. Make no mistake, year-in and year-out, the Big Ten crown is up for grabs with strong defensive teams battling it out for conference bragging rights. Iowa has the potential to be real stingy defensively. If they can shore up the interior of the line, a return of the entire linebacking squad (Pat Angerer included) sitting underneath cornerback Amari Spievey (tied 2nd in the conference in INTs with four) and conference-leader in INTs, safety Tyler Sash, could make it tough for any offense to move the ball against the Hawkeyes. If young running back Jewel Hampton can give half the effort (900 yards, 10 touchdowns) put forth by Shonn Greene last year, Iowa will be the thorns in the conference favorites’ sides.

The Sleepers: Illinois and Northwestern: For Illinois, it’s somewhat simple—ride your offensive star power (wide receivers Arrelious Benn, Jeff Cumberland, Jarred FAyson and running backs Daniel Dufrene, Jason Ford). With that supporting cast, quarterback Juice Williams must be salivating for opening day. Can they average 40 per game? Perhaps…and they’ll need to until their defense performs consistently. In terms of scheduling, the Illini season will most likely be dictated early with a stretch starting September 26th at Ohio State (Illinois conveniently has a bye the week preceding this doozey), home against Penn State, and home against Michigan State. If they take two of three here, which is certainly plausible, it may be clear sailing the rest of the way—their toughest hurdles will be at Minnesota, November 7th, and Northwestern the following week. Expect a double-digit win season, riding solely on where Williams takes them. Unlike the Illini, defense rules for the Wildcats. If they can find a solution on the interior to plug up the run with the loss of defensive tackle John Gill, Northwestern has the pieces to shut down the conference’s mostly vanilla offenses. Senior quarterback Mike Kafka showed potential last year, stepping in for injured starter C. J. Bacher. Kafka is now known mostly for his Big Ten quarterback record-breaking 217 yards rushing against Minnesota last year, but needs to prove he can distribute the ball effectively for the Wildcats’ spread offense to flourish. This will prove difficult as 80 percent of their receptions graduated last year. If Northwestern proves they are more than one-dimensional with playmakers stepping up on the offensive side of the ball, they have an opportunity as good as anyone else to contend for the conference title.

Offensive Player of the Year: QB Juice Williams (Illinois) vs. RB John Clay (Wisconsin): Did you know that Williams needs just 4,238 total yards this year to break the all-time Big Ten career yardage record held by Drew Brees? Williams has not been known for being tremendously accurate (2008 career high of 57.5 completion percentage), but still finds ways to get the ball down field for scores. With 3,173 yards through the air last year, Williams almost doubled his passing output from his sophomore campaign (1,743 yards). What else? How about the fact that the quarterback also led his team in rushing last year with 923 yards and five touchdowns? With a stable of competent running backs in the backfield with Williams, I suspect his rushing totals will diminish. I also expect, however, that Williams will continue to improve his touchdown/interception ratio (22/16 2008, 12/13 2007, 9/9 2006) with an elite receiving corps, augmented by Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. This may be a record, decorated year for the senior gunslinger in his final campaign. John Clay emerged last year as a complementary one-two punch to Badgers’ star running back P. J. Hill. When Hill needed a breather or was struggling, Clay answered the bell with 155 carries for 884 yards and nine scores. The sophomore running back is already drawing comparisons to the New York Giants franchise back Brandon Jacobs by possessing size (6-2, 247), speed, and a bruiser mentality. With Hill’s departure and no quarterback emerging as a star, Clay could emerge as the workhorse Wisconsin has traditionally grown to appreciate. If Clay can lose about 10 pounds, the Big Ten defenses are in for a serious pounding. Expect Clay to be featured in a classic power-running scheme that could net him somewhere between 200-250 carries this season.
Honorable Mention: WR Erick Decker (Minnesota), QB Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), RB Evan Royster (Penn State), WR Arrelious Benn (Illinois)

Defensive Player of the Year: LB Greg Jones (Michigan State) vs. DE Corey Wootten (Northwestern): Last year, Jones anchored the linebacking corps with a team-leading 127 tackles and 12 tackles-for-loss. The defense looks primed to be as strong as or stronger than last year, particularly against the run. The Spartans’ schedule is loaded with run-first offenses (Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State), so don’t expect a drop-off in the number of ball carriers Jones mops up. Further, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, and Purdue (on the schedule) will be walking out quarterbacks with little or no experience, so Jones may find his way in to the backfield more often. If it weren’t for a costly knee injury in last year’s Alamo Bowl, Northwestern’s defensive end Corey Wootten would already be in an NFL training camp showing off his playmaking ability. Wootten stands at a whopping 6-7, 270 pounds and possesses enough athletic ability to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Last year, he took down quarterbacks 10 times and hauled in a team-leading 16 tackles-for-loss. Furthermore, Northwestern’s defense projects to be even better than last season’s, so Wootten’s presence may help his teammates statistically with extra backfield pressures. Look for Wootten to be a star and anchor of Northwestern’s defense this year, launching him up the Big Board for next year’s draft.
Honorable Mention: DE Brandon Graham (Michigan), DE Jammie Kilrew (Indiana), LB Pat Angerer (Iowa), LB Navarro Bowman (Penn State)

Breakout Seasons: QB Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State) and DL Mike Martin (Michigan): Ohio State’s rising star, quarterback Terrelle Pryor, will be looking to have lightning strike from a more polished arm. Word out of Columbus suggests that Pryor is committed to developing himself as a drop-back passer, and he certainly provided flashes of this last year by leading the Big Ten in passing efficiency. If Pryor takes even moderate steps as a passer, his escapability and top-speed make him a homerun hitter every time the ball is in his hands. By season’s end, we would have been inundated with the obvious Vince Young comparisons, but a bigger compliment to Pryor would certainly be that he looked a lot like Ohio State’s own Heisman Trophy winner (and athlete-turned-pocket-passer), Troy Smith. How does a defensive lineman have a breakout season? Well, sophomore Mike Martin of the Michigan Wolverines may show us, by plugging up the interior as the defensive tackle in Michigan’s new 3-3-5 defense. Last year, Martin shined as a true freshman playing in all 12 games, compiling 20 tackles (4.5 for loss) and two sacks. Word out of Ann Arbor is that Martin is looking fierce so far through camp and if end Brandon Graham draws more double teams with his reputation as a sack-master from the outside, watch out for Martin up the middle one-on-one through the A-gaps.

Best Pro Prospects: WR Arrelious Benn (Illinois): Wide receiver Arrelious Benn looks to capitalize on quarterback Juice Williams’ senior campaign by improving on his 1,000-yard season from a year ago (67, 1,055 yards, 3 touchdowns). Although his production isn’t necessarily worldly, Benn’s frame (6-2, 220) and versatility (returning punts, kicks, and lining up in the backfield) suggest he will have pro scouts salivating, and there are already rumblings of the receiver being a top-ten pick in next year’s NFL draft. Benn’s stock will continue to rise now that NFL offenses are looking for multi-dimensional playmakers that may have an impact in Wildcat formations. Benn’s athleticism, build, and experience in the backfield would bring much to the table in that respect.

College Football Insider’s Picks:

Conference Champion: Penn State: The Big Ten crown is really up for grabs this year with each of the contending teams having some holes to fill. However, Penn State returns solid leadership on both sides of the ball with quarterback Daryll Clark and running back Evan Royster on offense, and a linebacking corps where Sean Lee possibly is second-best of the unit(!?). If the Nittany Lions establish themselves as a running team this year (which isn’t a stretch) and can hold off the pass on defense, they will be tough to beat. Their run defense should be fantastic. This team (as both a compliment and criticism) may end up looking like Michigan’s defense from 2006 where teams shouldn’t have bothered running the ball and focused on tearing apart a somewhat porous secondary. Furthermore, the team’s schedule isn’t necessarily Murderers’ Row.

Offensive Player of the Year: RB John Clay, Wisconsin: Nothing against Juice Williams—I think he will have a great year—but I’m skeptical that Williams will be able to turn the corner with his accuracy and cutting down the interceptions. If Williams makes a mistake in a big game, I feel his stock will drop, despite putting up solid numbers. I believe that the table is set for Wisconsin to pound the ball, especially when they need to protect a defense that lacks all-around experience. What do you do to protect an inexperienced defense? Keep them off the field. How do you keep them off the field? Time of possession. How do you possess…? You get the idea. Hand the rock over to the big fellow and watch him roll downhill all season. The Badgers’ schedule can also give John Clay the type of competition where he can flourish. One could expect big numbers during their non-conference schedule, and heading in to the Big Ten, solid games against Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, and Northwestern (with remaining games against weaker defenses such as Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan) will make him a bona fide star.

Defensive Player of the Year: LB Greg Jones, Michigan State: As stated above, the Spartans are primed to have a solid unit on the defensive side of the ball. With a more experienced defensive line freeing up gaps for the linebackers, expect Greg Jones to be in the thick of most plays. I expect Jones to increase his tackles-for-losses (12) and tackles (127) based on the proposition of more freedom near the line of scrimmage. The battle for this crown will be closer than the offensive POY battle, but I bet you a lollipop a linebacker ends up shining by season’s end.

Photo Credit: The Ohio State Department of Athletics, Illinois Sports Information